The Bulls:

With the 16th and 26th pick, I was hoping the Bulls would take a big man and possibly a big 2 guard to replace Hinrich and/or Gordon.  At 16, there were still a lot of big men on the table, but I was pushing mainly for DaJuan Blair.  I know he’s a bit undersized height-wise, but he is a beast on the boards.  Instead the Bulls drafted James Johnson.

Then the Bulls had another shot at Blair with the 26th pick, but they had already drafted a big man, so they wouldn’t need another one, right?  That was the wrong assumption, as Gar Forman selected Taj Gibson from USC.  Another undersized big man to compete with TT, Noah, Miller, and now Johnson in the frontcourt.

My initial reaction to the draft was “Well, I don’t hate these guys, but we needed a legit big man, or at least a 2 guard that would be serviceable if Gordon bolts”.  The more I think about it, though, the more I realize that this might work.  Both Johnson and Gibson have pretty refined offensive games for big men and are skilled enough to see time at the small forward position.  On top of that, I realized that perhaps this lends itself to the Bulls new philosophy of playing a more uptempo pace.  Perhaps they wanted big men that could run the floor, which would explain why they didn’t bat an eye as Blair tumbled down into the second round.

Overall it was a solid draft that gets a B from me as far as grades.  And at the very least, Taj Gibson “gets the blueprint”, so there’s always that.

Around The League (The Highlights of the Draft and the Days leading up to it)

Flurry of Trades:

• The Spurs moved Bruce Bowen and Kurt Thomas to the Bucks for Richard Jefferson.  Wow what a steal for the Spurs.  They also sent Fabricio Oberto to Detroit for Amir Johnson.
• The Cavs responded by trading away Pavlovic, Ben Wallace, a 2nd round pick in 2010 and some cash to the Suns for 1 year of Shaq’s services.
• The Magic, who reportedly have received word that Turkoglu will be opting out of his contract after making this trade, were able to acquire Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson from the Nets for Courtney Lee, Rafer Alston and Tony Battie.
• The Wizards and Timberwolves made an interesting trade.  The Wolves sent Mike Miller and Randy Foye to Washington in exchange for Oleksiy Pechorov, Etan Thomas, Darius Songaila, and the #5 pick in the draft.  This trade looks very good for the Wiz, but very strange for the Wolves.  It leaves them with 10 forwards on their roster, and would lead to an absurd looking draft for them.

Draft Day

• Blake Griffin went first and Hasheem Thabeet went second, so no surprises there for the most part.
• The Timberwolves, with 6 picks overall and 4 in the first round, stunned most of us by selecting three point guards with the 5th, 6th and 18th pick, respectively Rubio, Flynn, and Lawson.  Then they traded Lawson to Denver for a future first round pick.  Now there are reports Rubio may stay overseas (probably because he hates the cold).  So it looks like the Wolves may have in fact gotten just one point guard.
• The Warriors took Stephon Curry one pick before the Knicks and just like every other year, a bunch of New York jackasses at Madison Square Garden got to boo like idiots.
• Hansborough went 13th to the Pacers, and Bulls fans let out a collective sigh of relief.  It’s not that he sucks or anything, we just don’t want him.
• At the 23rd pick, the Kings selected Omri Casspi.  The guy looks like he could be a beast, and he might get some run with the Kings, which would make him the first Israeli player to ever play in the NBA.
• At the 24th pick, the Mavs selected BJ Mullens, and then turned around and traded him to the Thunder for Rodrigue Beaubois taken with the 25th pick.
• The Knicks purchased the Lakers 29th pick for about $3 million in cash considerations.
• Apparently (and this seems very strange to me), the Blazers are sending Sergio Rodriguez, Jon Brockman, and the 38th pick to the Kings for the 31st pick, where they took Jeff Pendergraph.
• Both Sam Young and DeJuan Blair, projected as mid to late first rounders, slipped well into the second round.  They were selected 36th and 37th by the Grizzlies and Spurs respectively.
• There was a lot of second round trading of picks, but none that were all that notable beyond maybe Budinger, picked 44th (yikes, thats a bit of a drop) being sent by the Pistons to the Rockets in exchange for cash considerations.

Gooden, Nocioni, Simmons for Miller and Salmons: A-

I already broke this trade down in an earlier post.  I will summarize what I said there briefly.  In terms of talent it was a very good deal for the Bulls.  Acquiring Miller was a significant upgrade over Gooden and Salmons was a huge upgrade over Nocioni.  Miller will hopefully complement Rose well for the next year and a half and be a decent defender in the paint, which is what we have been needing as much or more than post scoring.  Also, Salmons looks to have enormous upside.  Getting rid of Noce is addition by subtraction, since he was a liability on defense and very trigger happy.  In terms of salary, it was an excellent move.  Nocioni’s long-term contract is gone and is replaced by Miller’s $112 million dollar deal that expires in 2010 and Salmons who is making $5.5 (or $7.5?) million through 2011.

Hughes for Jerome James and Tim Thomas (and Roberson?): B

This trade really has very little impact in terms of on-court improvement.  Hughes was already getting DNP-CDs every night and Jerome James isn’t going to play.  Tim Thomas has been a Bull before, though only briefly before Skiles sent him home and the Bulls released him.  This time around he may get a few minutes here or there at the 3/4, but probably won’t have any real effect.  Salary-wise this move does one thing.  It takes Hughes $12 million dollar 2010 expiring contract and breaks it up into two, far more movable, $6 million dollar deals.

Also my understanding of a medical retirement in the NBA is that if James does not play for one year, the Bulls can put him on medical retirement and as long as he doesn’t play the rest of his contract, his salary would not count against the Bulls 2009-2010 cap.  Its possible that James will never play again, so this move has the potential of freeing up some of that $12 million as early as 2009 season.  (UPDATE: This cannot happen based on the current CBA.  Oh well. The Bulls will only have to pay about $1.5 million to him next year, but the full $6.6 million will count against the cap).

Sefolosha for OKC’s First Round Pick (The lesser pick of the Nuggets or San Antonio’s pick that OKC acquired via trade): C+

Yeah Thabo would be buried on the bench now with Salmons, but I still believe he will become a very good player in the league.  It looks like this move was done because the Knicks deal put the Bulls slightly over the cap for this year and Pax needed to shed some salary to avoid the tax.  The loss of Thabo is unfortunate and I have very little sympathy for Reinsdorf having to pay a little tax this year.

Inability to Land Stoudemire/Bosh/Camby/Boozer And Non-Trade of Kirk: B

Once again Pax didn’t get the big deal done that would make the Bulls a legitimate contender.  We can only speculate over whether a big offer was possible or even on the table.  Amare was being shopped, but Phoenix clearly took him off the table in the last few days.  Bosh was only coming here in a deal involving Amare, so that went out the window when Amare came off the table.  Camby is too old and hurt.  I also don’t think the Boozer deal was ever offered.

Also, why didn’t the Bulls move Hinrich’s contract?  Pax claims they had an offer but they feel they can get more in the summer.  Whether that’s true or not, the Salmons acquisition leaves Kirk with less minutes and now he knows he’s being dangled as trade bait all season.  Hopefully this works out but it seems very odd.

Cap Management: B+

The moves give us little to no cap room this summer, but position the Bulls to make a big move in the summer of 2010.  With Bosh, James, Wade, Anthony and Stoudemire all becoming free agents, the Bulls will have a ton of cap space.  If they pick up Noah and Rose’s options, they have only about $35 million committed in 2010/2011, leaving almost an estimated $30 million to offer to one of those free agents.  Another option is that the Bulls will have a combination of $30 million dollars of expiring contracts to trade this summer and during the 2009/2010 season to another team trying to clear space for a free agent in the 2010 summer.  Also dividing Hughes contract into two smaller contracts may make them easier to move.  Perhaps all the expiring deals could be used to pry a star away in a trade from one of those teams.

Overall Deadline Grade For Paxson: B+

He made all good moves but once again failed to bring in something for fans to get excited about and that would make the Bulls a contender.  At least he did something this time I guess.

Who is John Salmons?
We don’t get to see a lot of Kings games here in Chicago, so most people don’t know much about this guy.  Over at NBA Post Up, they prepare scouting reports based on statistics and other factors.  Here is what they have for Salmons:

John Salmons has solid ability to score;
Will look to score; Not looking to attempt threes; Just an average three point gunner; Able to get to the free throw line; Very good free throw shooter; Average shooter; Mediocre off the dribble; Adequate inside; Average running the break; John Salmons is adequate on the offensive glass; Average defensive rebounder; John Salmons is a good passer; Weak handling the ball; John Salmons is very good at picking up steals; Gets an average amount of blocks; Solid defender of outside shots; Very good perimeter defender; Post defense is adequate; Very good transition defender; John Salmons is not overly strong; Has some quickness; John Salmons is a basketball player with some ability and can provide strong minutes off the bench

Ok, there is a lot to digest there.  Based on this analysis, it appears that he is a very versatile player.  ESPN’s scouting report summarizes his abilitie as well:

In addition to his slashing ability, Salmons is a very good defender who can guard three positions. He’s quick and has good size at 6-7, and ranked in the top third of shooting guards in both blocks and steals per minute. The Kings often used him as the primary stopper against elite scorers, even when Ron Artest was on the court with him, and he held his own in those matchups.

Offensively, he likes to attack off the dribble for layups or short-range jumpers. He’s a mediocre spot-up shooter and isn’t a good shooter off the dribble, plus he tends to have high turnover rates because he’s driving into traffic so much. However, he’s a good enough dribbler to play point guard in a pinch.

It sounds like Salmons will be an excellent player to have for the Bulls.  His ability to be a stopper against elite scorers will help the Bulls defend the perimeter against bigger guards that have abused Rose and Gordon all year.  But isn’t that what Thabo is for, you ask?  Yes, the difference is Thabo is a huge liability on offense, to the point of making him detrimental to the team at times even if he is shutting down his man on defense.  Salmons can do what Thabo does, and put up points in the process (he is averaging 18.3 points/game).  The main inconsistency in the two reports are that Post Ups has him being unable to handle the ball well, while ESPN says he can even play the point.  If Hinrich is dealt, this skill will be tested when Rose needs a breather.  Which leads to the next question…

Are The Bulls Done Making Moves?

It looks like the Bulls may still move Hinrich (and possibly Thabo) to the T-Wolves for Brian Cardinal and Jason Collins, as reported here earlier.  This move makes sense for both teams.  The Wolves need a combo guard that can play both the 1 and the 2.  Foye has been unable to fill that role for them.  For the Bulls, they would be stuck with Cardinal until 2010 (more on 2010 later), but Collins $6 million would come off the cap this summer giving the Bulls about $9-11 million in cap room this summer.  They could use this money to sign Gordon to an expected 5 year $50 million deal or perhaps go get another solid free agent.  I think this would be a great deal and hopefully Paxson/Reinsdorf aren’t so in love with Kirk that they don’t do it.

***UPDATE: It looks like the Hinrich deal may have fallen apart late last night, though it’s possible it could still happen.

Was The Miller-Gooden Trade a Good Move?

There have been mixed reactions throughout the mainstream media, the blogosphere, and even from NQTC readers.  I think this trade is a great trade.  Before all the nay-sayers freak out in the comments, let me qualify my assessment with this:  It isn’t Amare or Bosh and a deal to get either of them would have been better.  That being said we have to assume those deals were impossible.  Looking at this trade in a vacuum, it was a coup for Paxson.  Brad Miller can not only duplicate what Gooden did for us, but he can do some things better.  He is a better defender and a better passer than Gooden ever was.  Also it will be interesting to see if he and Rose can run a more effective pick-and-roll.  With Miller being a good outside shooter, it may be more of a pick-and-pop at times, but it could work very well.

Also with Miller helping chew up minutes at the 4 and 5, Nocioni would be relegated to the 3, where he would be competing for minutes with a far superior Luol Deng.  Noce has had a terrible year and I don’t think I need to convince anyone that his departure is addition by subtraction.  On top of all that we get John Salmons, who I hear is quite the defender and scorer.  Also the contract situation is a lot better, which leads to the next question…

What Are The Salary Cap Implications of The Trade?

Depending on whether you are in the school of thought that believes that it is important to have cap space in 2010 to go after LeBron/Wade/Anthony/Bosh/Stoudemire, this move could be considered good or bad.  I believe having space that summer is crucial to make a run at one of the elite players in the league.

Nocioni had 5 more years (including this one) at about $8 million a year, though the deal was front-loaded so that amount decreases some as the deal goes on.  Gooden’s contract was $7 million and expires this summer.  Getting something in return for Gooden as opposed to letting him walk this summer for nothing was nice, but moving Nocioni’s long terrible contract was far nicer.  Having that much money locked up for that long to a player like Noce was unacceptable, and Pax has essentially erased that mistake from the books.

In return, the Bulls take on Miller’s rather large contract at about $11.5 million a year that expires in the summer of 2010.  Between him and Hughes, the Bulls have a combined $24 million in space just from those two players in 2010.  That is more than enough to go after one of the big free agents that will be available.  Also, pieces like that will be very valuable to teams in the 2010 FA sweepstakes, so Pax (or whoever will be running the Bulls) can possibly get some very good talent back in return for teams trying to clear space for that summer.

Salmons contract is a little trickier.  He is owed about $5.1 million through 2011, which seems like a great value for the kind of contributor Salmons can be.  Unfortunately it turns out that his contract has a trade kicker that requires the team acquiring him to pay a 15% bonus payment that counts against its cap.  This would be another $2 million dollars against the cap.  I am unclear on whether this is a one-time bonus or if it applies every year.  Assuming it is one time, it doesn’t affect the Bulls cap in any real way down the road beyond costing our old buddy Jerry another $2 million (which he can afford). (Thanks to Judd for pointing out this clause in Salmons contract)

Conclusions

All in all, this trade is a great move in terms of cap space and the talent we are getting in return.  If the Bulls are able to move Kirk that would give them some flexibility this summer, but that isn’t crucial and its not clear that Ben Gordon is even in the Bulls plans for the future.  I give this deal an A- and if Pax can move some more salary (Hinrich or maybe Hughes), this deadline period can be considered a huge success.

Here is what the lineup will probably look like after this trade:

PG: Rose, Gordon, Salmons

SG: Gordon, Salmons, Sefolosha

SF: Deng, Salmons, Sefolosha

PF: Thomas, Miller, Noah

C: Miller, Noah, Gray

Though not exactly a legitimate contender, that definitely looks like the lineup of a playoff team to me.  We’ll see.