Last season was a huge disappointment for a Cubs team that had won two straight divisions the two previous years.  What was most disturbing was that the 2009 Cubs had pretty much the same personnel as the 2008 Cubs, with most feeling like Hendry had improved the team prior to the start of the season.  Were many key Cubs players just aging?  Was it a fluke year?  Did Milton Bradley poison everyone’s sandwiches?  This season will help to answer a lot of the questions.

With Spring Training wrapping up and the 2010 opening day roster set, it seems appropriate to take a look at what kind of a team the Cubs will be fielding.  After putting the 3rd oldest lineup in the National League on the field last year, its unlikely they are going to get that much younger this season, but hopefully some of the older players can find their strokes at the plate.  While the pitching was solid, the Cubs scored 707 runs last season as opposed to 855 in 2008.  Ouch.   Obviously that trend is going to have to change.

Key Additions/Departures

Additions: Carlos Silva – SP, Marlon Byrd – OF, Xavier Nady – OF, Chad Tracy- 3B

Departures: Kevin Gregg – RP, Milton Bradley – OF, Rich Harden – SP

Starting Lineup

1. SS – Ryan Theriot: In 2009, Theriot’s numbers across the board slid from his great 2008 season.  He was still effective with a .284 average, and his .343 OBP was solid.  I know Theriot will never walk a ton, and lord knows when he does get on base there’s as good a chance he’ll commit a Tootblan as score a run, but if he can just return to his 2008 numbers that would be enough.  Theriot has hit the ball very well in spring training and there is no reason to think he cannot have a good/great season.

2. RF – Kosuke Fukudome: There’s something consistent about Kosuke’s inconsistency, no? In both 2008 and 2009, he hit in the high .250s with 79 runs, 129 hits, and about 10 home runs.  We all know the drill at this point, right?  Hot April, lukewarm May, so-so June, post All-Star break tailspin.  While he is clearly overpaid, his on-base percentage keeps him relevant at the top of the order, and his above average defense is a nice bonus.  Too bad the power never came on though.

3. 1B – Derrek Lee: In 2009, Lee had one of the best seasons of his career, hitting .306/.393/.579 (avg/obp/slg) with 35 home runs.  What did him and most of the Cubs in was his abysmal April where he only hit .179/.253/.284 with only 1 home run.  His slow start was a big reason why the Cubs were playing catch-up all season.  As long as he finishes the season with good numbers, I’m happy, but it’d be nice to see him get going a little earlier.  Don’t count on it though, as his spring numbers were not exactly stellar (.189 BA).

4. 3B – Aramis Ramirez: There’s always been this sense that Rammy is made of glass and prone to injury.  Up until 2009, he hadn’t really missed all that many games as a Cub.  2009 had a way of bringing out the worst in people though.  He only played in 82 games with a shoulder injury.  This was one of  the most glaring holes in the 2009 lineup, and Aramis will need to have a healthy year for the Cubs to contend.  Unfortunately he has been battling a sore triceps this spring, but it looks like he’s mostly recovered.

5. LF – Alfonso Soriano: 2009 was a season to forget for Fonzy.  He played in only 117 games and hit a career worst .241/.303/.423 with only 20 home runs, his lowest total since his rookie year as a Yankee.  His spring has been average at best, although he did have a nice little 3 for 3 with a home run in Thursday’s final Cactus League game.  Obviously keeping him focused in the field and a bit more disciplined at the plate will be key this year.  On the other hand, what’s that saying about old dogs and new tricks?  I mean, sure his official age is 34, but does anyone really believe he’s younger than 40?

6. C – Geovany Soto: Talk about bad 2009s, this guy had just about the worst.  While most feel it was a sophomore slump for the young catcher, it may just be that all those innings kneeling down combined with NL pitchers figuring him out some brought the kid’s numbers back to earth.  He was a bit banged up and hopefully a return to health will be a return to form for Geo.  That being said, I believe he is somewhere in between his .285 23 home run rookie year and his .219 11 home run 2009 season.  If he can be a .260s and 15 home run a year guy behind the plate, that would be a great asset to the Cubs.

7. CF – Marlon Byrd: He isn’t Milton Bradley, that’s for sure.  In terms of temperament as well as skill.  Byrd actually had some really good years in Texas, hitting .283 with 20 home runs last year.  Unfortunately it doesn’t appear he likes to walk that much, but if he can hit in the .280s and create a clubhouse meltdown like his predecessor, that would be fine.  If he doesn’t work out Colvin will be happy to step in.  Colvin swung one of the hottest bats in all the Cactus League and will likely get some at-bats in center field as well.

8. 2B – Mike Fontenot: In a battle of two titans, Fontenot appears to have beaten out Jeff Baker for the 2nd base job.  It also looks like Fontenot will be backing up Theriot at shortstop, as Lou gave him some time there this spring.  Little Babe Ruth had an awful 2009, eventually losing his starting job to Jeff Baker (don’t worry, the Cubs had at-bats for him at 3rd base with Rammy on and off the field all season).  This spring, while essentially playing for the opening day starting 2nd baseman position against Baker, Fontenot hit a .350/.394/.517.  The job is his for now, but don’t be surprised to see him split time with Baker, especially if his hitting numbers go south.

Starting Rotation

Carlos Zambrano: Zambrano had a year pretty much like any other year for Zambrano in 2009.  He pitched decently well with a 3.91 ERA on the season.  He didn’t walk too many people on the whole, and although he gave up slightly more hits than usual, it wasn’t that bad.  But if his year wasn’t so bad, why do I feel like he shit the bed?  Oh right, his 10.13 August ERA may have done it for me.  On August 1st the Cubs were tied for first place, but partially because of Z’s trademark meltdown, the Cubs slipped and slipped until they were too far behind to catch up.  To beat a dead horse, Z needs to control his emotions and stay consistent this season.  He has million dollar stuff with a 5 cent head.

Ted Lilly: Lilly was shut down for the entire offseason due to shoulder surgery.  While initial reports had his return no earlier than mid-late May, it appears his rehab is going amazingly well.  He has been cleared to play and will likely join the big-league club sometime in mid to late April.  The Cubs need him bad.  Although he usually slips under the radar, he had another phenomenal season last year and may be the best pitcher on the staff.

Ryan Dempster: Although 2009 was not quite as good as 2008 for Ryan, the red-headed Canadian jokester still pitched pretty well with a 3.65 ERA and 172 strikeouts.  He has pitched 25 innings this spring and looks very strong, with just a 2.13 ERA and 25 strikeouts.  The Cubs need that rebuilt elbow of his to hold up for another full season, especially with Lilly coming back from injury and the bottom half of the rotation looking shaky at best to start the year.

Randy Wells: This is about to sound real negative about one of the 2009 Cubs only bright spots, but just hear me out.  I love the guy, and his 12-10, 3.05 ERA rookie season were fantastic.  Here’s my problem.  Why did he not come up until he was 26/27?  I always get concerned when guys who have been also-ran minor leaguers for years all of a sudden have a great season.  I’m not implying steroids by any means, but what I am implying is that perhaps it was a fluke season.  Maybe the rest of the NL just hadn’t seen him before.  His post all-star numbers were significantly worse than his early season numbers, which supports my theory somewhat.  He has had an okay spring, but only time will tell if my theory is right.  I hope its not.

Tom Gorzelanny: This lefty who looks eerily like Sloth from The Goonies had one good season in Pittsburgh.  Since then things have been shaky at best.  He managed to go 4-2 in 7 starts with the Cubs late in the season, despite a 5.63 ERA.  While he pitched decently this spring, anything positive that this guy can do will be a bonus.

Carlos Silva: Fat, lazy, and unmotivated.  That’s what they say about him.  It’s a good thing we traded our resident “clubhouse cancer” for this bum.  He has pitched pretty well this spring and earned the spot in the rotation opened up by the injury to Lilly, but his laziness and undisciplined lifestyle have made Silva’s career go in the tank.  There is no reason to think this year will be any different.  Let’s just say the sooner Lilly is back and the sooner this fat bum is out of the rotation, the better.

Bullpen

Carlos Marmol (CL), John Grabow, Esmailin Caridad, Sean Marshall, Jeff Samardzija, Justin Berg: Obviously there is one main question entering this season in the bullpen.  Can Carlos Marmol translate his electric stuff into some consistency in the 9th inning of games.  Why won’t this kid throw a goddamn strike?  His slider is unhittable, even when its over the plate, and his fastball is pretty damn good too.  It’s frustrating to watch, and if he is unable to do the job, I’m not exactly sure who the Cubs could turn too.  The rest of the bullpen actually looks decent, with Caridad tossing a scoreless 13 innings in spring ball and Grabow coming off some great seasons in Pittsburgh and even some good innings with the Cubs late last year.  Samardzija had a great shot at the 5th starter spot but had a spring to forget, which lands him in the bullpen again.

Rudy Jaramillo

The one huge difference on this team, and the guy everyone is talking about, is the Cubs new hitting coach.  Jaramillo was the hitting coach in Texas for years.  He is well-respected around the league as something of a genius and almost every player he works with improves their hitting significantly.  The entire lineup stands to gain from Rudy’s wisdom and expertise, and hopefully it will be the difference between 2008s 855 runs and 2009s 707 runs.

Tyler Colvin

Yeah, some kid you’ve never heard of gets his own section in this preview.  Here’s why: After being bounced around between single A and AA in the Cubs minor league system for years, this kid tore the cover off the ball last season at AA Tennessee.  In just 84 games, he hit .300/.334/.524 with 14 home runs.  He did get a few major league at-bats in September last year, but this year he will hopefully get even more.  Entering spring training he was not on anyone’s radar to actually make the squad, even after his scorching hot year at AA.  He refused to let Lou cut him, however, hitting .468/.468/.753 with 8 doubles, 4 triples, and 2 home runs this spring.  Yeah, he didn’t walk even once, but if he can hit the ball like that, who cares.

There’s actually a decent amount of news around the Cubbies the last few weeks, so I figured why not do a Cubs linkdump.  Enjoy!

• Remember how everyone was saying that nobody is going to want Bradley?  Well that’s out the window, since apparently there are a ton of suitors for him. [Bleacher Nation]
• Have you heard of Cubs prospect Starlin Castro?  You will be soon, if the hype comes through.  The 19-year old shortstop looks really good. [Cubs.com]
• Speaking of prospects, it sounds like Josh Vitters is coming along nicely.  Except for the part where he swings at everything. [Tribune]
• The Cubs signed hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo to the most expensive deal a hitting coach has ever received.  He’s supposed to be pretty good. [Wrigleyville23]
• Ryno didn’t take the hitting coach position, but he sure seems focused on Lou’s job in 2011.  Probably a good move, since hitting coach doesn’t exactly seem like a stepping stone to major league manager. [Tribune]
• Is the Cubs window shut?  I don’t necessarily think so, but we haven’t exactly improved the last couple years. [Zoner]
• It looks like the Cubs will be moving from their Spring Training facility in Mesa to….another facility in Mesa.  I guess they aren’t going to Florida anymore. [Bleed Cubbie Blue]

The Cubs need a new hitting coach.  Gerald Perry wasn’t cutting it and Von Joshua was just an interim solution.  The Cubs need someone who will connect with the players and work on their mechanics, yes, but equally as important is someone who will stress the importance of patience at the plate.

In 2008, the Cubs offense was wildly successful partially as a result of drawing a ridiculous amount of walks.  In 2009, well, we all know what happened there.  Sure the power went out a bit as well, but the importance of getting on base cannot be discounted.

Which brings us to Rudy Jaramillo.  He was the hitting coach for the Texas Rangers over the last decade or so.  During that time, the Rangers have generally had a great hitting ballclub.  The problem with Rudy is this past season.  The Rangers offense was so dismal that the team felt the need to fire Jaramillo.  In fact, the team was 12th in the AL in OBP and 12th in walks.

So what does this all mean?  I’m not sure.  It looks like Jaramillo will be heavily pursued by many other major league teams.  It also doesn’t really seem like the Cubs have any good internal options and I’m not sure where else they would look.

Oh and another little bonus, Jaramillo worked very well with Bradley when he was in Texas.  I mean, Bradley is probably on his way out anyways, but you never know.

***UPDATE: Apparently the Cubs are in talks with Jaramillo and he is likely to take the gig. [The Friendly Blogfines]