When Michigan State meets #3 Purdue on Sunday, it’ll have huge influence on who wins the Big Ten regular season title. But beyond that…who will eventually take Purdue’s #1 seed in the NCAA tourney now?

The Purdue Boilermakers are 12-3 in the Big Ten, a half-game ahead of Ohio State and a full game in front of the Michigan State Spartans, so Sunday’s clash in West Lafayatte between the two is already huge. But now we have the added storyline of Purdue playing their first game without their most important player- Robbie Hummel. And it will be the first of EVERY game they’ll play this season without him, as he is out for the season with a torn ACL.

When I asked Tom Izzo earlier this season, who Purdue’s most valuable player is, he told me “I think it’s Hummel. He’s really what makes them go.” And as I’ve pointed out numerous times before, Izzo is an all-knowing, all-seeing sage; whose status as an all powerful guru is never to be questioned- EVER!

Since Robbie Hummel is the Purdue engine, the Boilers are now like an airbone plane with an engine that failed and Coach Matt Painter is a pilot attempting to glide this craft back to land without crashing massively. What will they be without Hummel? Last year, when Hummel suffered more back problems than a 70 year old furniture mover, Robbie missed 4 games, and the Boilermakers went 1-3.

This will be sort of be like Ohio State without Evan Turner. Times five.

The Boilermakers controlled their own destiny for a Big Ten regular-season title and a No. 1 seed in the big dance. But like Barack Obama said, “it’s not enough to just change the players, you have to change the game.” And Hummel’s loss actually changes a lot more than a player in the starting lineup, it changes the game on a national scale. Michigan State or Ohio State could grab the Boilers’ once likely conference title.

But in the bigger picture, that #1 seed they once had penciled in could now go to…..

…the Big East runner up? Why not? Syracuse is a “top line” team, and Pittsburgh or Villanova could play their way into joining them by running the table at the Big East tournament in a couple weeks.

…Duke? Well that would certainly please the Eastern Seaboard Programming Network; seeing Coach K.’s current bunch of star college players that will likely go un-drafted, or be NBA busts, grab another #1 seed. But do they actually have enough down low to not stumble anywhere down the stretch?

…K-State? Seriously, you know that Kansas and Kentucky join the ‘Cuse as mortal locks for #1 seeds. And two #1 seeds coming from the same state? A state that’s not North Carolina, Indiana or Kentucky? Yes, the Kansas State Wildcats could indeed be the biggest benefactors from Purdue’s soul-crushing loss. If things play out their way of course.

…New Mexico? No, sorry #1 seeds are reserved for high-major big boys

Paul M. Banks is Founder/President of The Sports Bank.net, an Upper Midwest sports webzine. He’s also a member of the Football Writers Association of America, the United States Basketball Writers Association and a sports writer for the Washington Times.com Communities and Walter Football.com

This past Saturday Purdue lineman Zach Reckman received another one gamer for a cheap shot at the end of the Boilermakers’ loss against Northern Illinois.  Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez didn’t do Purdue any favors by mentioning that the Big Ten better keep an eye on everyone in his press conference this week.  Anyway, Reckman will miss Purdue’s game against none other than Charlie Weis’s Fighting Irish.  Here’s the video.

Now, I’m not against suspending players for the cheap stuff.  Both of these guys deserved some punishment for their actions.  Rodriguez and Danny Hope should have been out in front of these, announcing anything from “we’ll handle it internally” to “he’s out for a quarter, a half, or a game.”  However, this is not the job of the Big Ten and they are setting a precedent with these suspensions that will get them in trouble and annoy the hell out of fans in the future. 

If only there was some kind of feature that would allow me to explain my displeasure in an organized fashion one by one.  Bullets!

• Problemo uno is that Mouton’s suspension came down on Thursday afternoon and Reckman’s sometime on Wednesday.  WTF Delaney?  Michigan had no time to prepare for a missing defensive starter, as most teams restrict Fridays to walkthroughs.  Purdue didn’t get much better notice, only getting one full day of practice for their backup. 
• A off-shoot of uno is that most of these situations likely are brought to the Big Ten’s attention by opposing coaches.  If you’re coaching against Ohio State and Terrelle Pryor pops a guy to defend Mike Vick’s honor, you better believe you’re sending that tape in as late as possible so they won’t be able to prepare. 
• That leads in to the biggest problem of all.  Coaches are going to comb the desert Spaceballs style for any evidence of foul play.  Not in their own games, but in the games of their upcoming opponent.  Then we’ll hear them mention it and complain in hopes that the Big Ten will bring the boom on some starter from their future opponent’s squad.  If you think coaches won’t do this, you’re crazy.  Any coach will do what it takes to give his team any competitive advantage.  Plus, it’s not like they will be taking advantage of the system, this is essentially what the Big Ten is asking for. 
• Finally, I can’t wait for a star to do something questionable the week before a big game.  Evan Royster gives a stomp to an opponent the week before the OSU game, or heaven forbid Terrelle Pryor reverts to his high school basketball days and gets in a fight the week before that game.  We’ll see if Delaney steps up when something like that happens, but hopefully the Big Ten realizes the overreaching arm of the law they’ve extended and stops. 

Again, I’m not saying that players who dole out cheap shots shouldn’t be punished.  Coaches should be responsible for suspensions though, with a failure to do so resulting in negative publicity for the school.  Sure, that’s not much of a punishment, but it beats the alternative of Wednesday suspensions and whiny coaches looking to get college kids thrown out of games.

For the next few weeks leading up to the college football season, we’ll be previewing every Big Ten team, starting with my prediction to finish last, to my predicted champ.  This way if I don’t get to Ohio State before the season starts, you’ll have a good grasp on all the teams whose analysis isn’t “highest payroll, most talent, probably champs.”  Coming in at 10th: Purdue.

First year coach Danny Hope will have big shoes to fill with Joe Tiller retiring after a 12-year run with the Boilermakers that saw them go to 10 bowl games, including one Rose Bowl.  Hope was on the staff last year, coming from Eastern Kentucky with the understanding that he would inherit the job when Tiller left to do diabeetus commercials full time.

Hope coached at Purdue during the school’s most successful period in football, the Drew Brees era.  The quarterback position is nowhere near what it was during the times of mole face and neck beard though.  With Curtis Painter’s graduation, long time backup Joey Elliot will get the starting nod after a pair of incidents cast contenders aside.  First, Justin Siller was kicked off the team for the year for academic failure, then Robert Marve–a transfer from Miami (that Miami)–tore his ACL. 

Elliot suffered a major injury last year and needs to stay healthy this season in a major way.  At running back, the Boilers lose Kory Sheets, but get Jaycen Taylor back from injury.  Taylor should be the starter and will run behind an offensive line that returns four starters.  Good news!

The bad news is that the quarterback, wide receiver, and linebacker positions are major questions with unproven players or players that have proven to be no good.  Hope brought in his defensive coordinator Donn Landholm from Eastern Kentucky after the former DC left to coach at Illinois State.  We’ll see how he handles Big Ten offenses. 

Hope is an apt name for the Boilermaker coach, because after a 13-19 Big Ten record in Tiller’s last four years, Danny will bring a fresh face, a renewed energy, and the same old mustasche to the table.  Purdue will be tested early when they travel to Oregon for a night game in the second week of the season.  They could get off to a fast start in the Big Ten, but a brutal stretch will keep the Boilers in the bottom of the league again this year.

(5) Purdue vs. (1) UConn- 7:07 ET

Here are a couple teams that could both be referred to as “hot” but in completely different ways.  Purdue barreled through the Big Ten Tournament, then won a couple of very close games in the tournament.  UConn lost early in the Big East Tournament (well I guess it had been going on for a few days), but they have looked unbeatable in their two tournament games, winning by a combined 2,035 points.*  A.J. Price has quieted most of the talk about missing Dyson, while Thabeet and Adrien are playing great inside.

My favorite part about watching UConn so far was when Texas A&M called a timeout about a minute and a half into the game, down 4-0.  Someone who wasn’t paying attention asked me why there was a commercial so soon and I told him a timeout and had to explain how dominant UConn was even though up only four.

Purdue is rugged enough to bang with UConn and athletic enough to keep up with them.  Hummel will be the key for the Boilermakers though.  UConn has dismantled teams so far, and when things aren’t looking good, you need a playmaker to bring you back into the game.  I think Purdue can survive a couple of runs from UConn and make a push at the end if Hummel is on his game.  First Team All-Big Ten center JaJuan Johnson could also help out immensely if he could draw a foul or four on Thabeet.  The refs owe the Big Ten one after that Michigan-Oklahoma atrocity.

I think the winner of this game will beat Memphis, but this is one that I really struggled to pick.  I think I filled out four or five brackets this year and in half I have UConn in the Final Four and in half I have Purdue.  The only thing that has changed since then is the performance of UConn in the first two rounds, so I’ll go 76-70 in favor of the Huskies.

*Perhaps an exaggeration.

(4) Xavier vs. (1) Pittsburgh- 7:27 ET

You can definitely spell Sweet 16 without an X, but your bracket better damn well have one in there on a third round line.  Xavier brings it year after year to the tournament and were clearly the best team of the four contending for a Sweet 16 appearance in their portion of the bracket.  Pittsburgh is the anti-Xavier.  Over-achieving in the Big Dance to them is not losing to a directional-state school in the first couple of rounds.  This year it was East Tennessee State that gave Pitt trouble, then a nail-biter against Oklahoma State.

While most think the close game against the Cowboys is reason for concern, I think OSU was playing some great basketball coming in and that Pitt took a major step forward in knocking them out.  The reasons to like Pitt are still the same as they have been all year.  They have a great point guard, a scary post player, and one of the best wings in the game.

Xavier plays great defense and can dominate on the glass.  That could be a problem for the Musketeers in tonight’s game though, because I don’t know if they have anyone who can match up with DeJuan Blair on the inside.  Their hope has to be to bring more energy to the glass and come with a number of their athletic forwards to get rebounds.  B.J Raymond and Derrick Brown, two of those forwards, will need to carry the load offensively, as they have the best match-ups with Pitt’s defenders.

In the end I think Pitt wears Xavier down and Fields leads the Panthers to a win down the stretch.  72-67, Pitt.

5:30 pm (2) Illinois vs. (7) Michigan-

The first issue that comes to mind with this game is the availability of Chester Frazier for Illinois.  Frazier isn’t the most talented player on the team, but his importance has been noted here many times.  No offense (or pun) to Travis Walton, but Frazier is the best defender in the Big Ten.  Michigan and Illinois met twice this season, and played by the rules of the Big Ten and each won at home.  Other than the venue, the difference in the two games was easily Mike Tisdale.  Tisdale was non-existent in the first game due in part to a slow start and in part to Bruce Weber’s decision to put a smaller, quicker player on DeShawn Sims.  In the rematch, the big white had 24 points on 10 of 12 shooting, while Sims was held to seven points.

The teams’ experiences couldn’t be less similar leading up to the game this afternoon.  Michigan finished the season on a hot streak that has ensured them a spot in the NCAA Tournament, including a blowout win over Iowa yesterday.  The Illini have lost their last two games and haven’t played in eight days.  Michigan needs to keep pounding the ball down to Sims to be successful.  Sims scored 16 points in the first ten minutes yesterday and the combination of better seals down low and better entry passes has been key to Michigan’s success down the stretch.  For Illinois, they’ll need to find gaps in that 1-3-1 zone like they did in their last match-up and McCamey and Meacham will need to knock down shots.  If Frazier is indeed out, Brock and Meacham will both need to take on some ball handling responsibilities and Alex Legion will need big minutes.  With no Frazier, it could be a little more of a high scoring affair with him not controlling the offense and shutting it down on defense.  By higher scoring, I mean 60s.

8:00 pm (3) Purdue vs. (6) Penn State-

Here’s another case of the home teams winning the games in the regular season.  The underdog has the momentum in this case too.  The Nittany Lions are on the verge of solidifying their NCAA bid and have won three of their last four, while the Boilermakers have lost three of four.  Purdue has generally underachieved this season and they should be hungry to prove themselves in the postseason.  Penn State will look to keep the good balance with Talor Battle and Stanley Pringle on the perimeter and the nice inside-outside game of Jamelle Cornley.  Purdue is more talented than Penn State, but have proven they can struggle against anyone.  Robbie Hummel will be the key for the Boilermakers.  He needs to step up and be the leader they expected at the start of the season.  I know he is playing through injury, but now is the time they need him.

**Update: Sounds like Chester Frazier is out for the Big Ten Tourney and questionable for the Big Dance.