1) Ohio State- Hard to put the Buckeyes anywhere else on the list.  Terrelle Pryor was the most efficient passer in the conference last year and OSU is never lacking talent.  For the first time in a while though, the talent is unproven.  Wouldn’t be surprised to see Ohio State lose a game or three this year. 

2) Penn State- Some of the same issues face the Nittany Lions that face the Buckeyes.  They lose a lot of experienced players in bunches.  Wide receiver and defensive back positions groups will be very green.  Penn State has a quarterback better than Pryor though, in Clark and a proven NFL-bound back in Evan Royster.  PSU should benefit from playing absolutely no one in their out of conference slate as they bring their young guys around. 

3) Illinois- The Illini struggle with success.  The last two times they went to BCS bowls, Illinois followed up with a 5-7 season.  This year though, Illinois returns all of its rushing yards, a dynamic veteran quarterback, and the best receiver in the conference.  The defense needs to step up, but I think the Zooker brings the Illini back this season. 

4) Iowa- The Hawkeyes received some bad news in the preseason, learning that RB Jewel Hampton would be out for significant time.  The good news for the Hawkeyes is that they return a bunch of players.  The Hawkeyes are strong in the trenches and if Stanzi can limit the turnovers and become the ideal game manager he can be at quarterback, Iowa will be in great shape. 

5) Michigan State- The Spartans were picked third in the conference by the Big Ten media this summer.  I don’t see it.  They lose Javon Ringer, who represented basically their entire offense.  One guy to watch is linebacker Greg Jones, he’s something special.  Kirk Cousins will get the start at QB for the Spartans, while Keith Nichol will also get snaps in the first game.  Nichol has the higher ceiling, but Cousins is likely the smart move at the outset. 

6) Michigan- The Wolverines have taken plenty of heat in the week leading up to the season and it remains to be seen whether the “scandal” will help bring them together or be too large of a distraction.  If Tate Forcier can even be an average starter as freshmen go, he’ll be a significant upgrade at QB.  The Wolverines have four returning starters on the O-line and a defense that couldn’t be worse than last year.  If they put the distractions aside, I see a big jump for UM.

7) Northwestern-  I have changed my mind on the Wildcats in the last couple of weeks.  I really like what Pat Fitzgerald is doing in Evanston and Mike Kafka is a great fit for this offense.  With a favorable schedule, I like the Wildcats to make some noise in the Big Ten this year.   

8- Wisconsin-  Bret Bielema has to be feeling the heat in Madison, and I’m not talking about the kind of heat that seems to land a running back in legal trouble once per year.  Wisconsin failed miserably to meet expectations last year and the pressure is on this year.  Scott Tolzien will be your yearly new starter for the Badgers, who will rely heavily on John Clay and Zach Brown to carry the load. 

9) Minnesota-  Tim Brewster’s squad will be led by the pass-catch combo of Adam Weber and Eric Decker.  Decker is one of the best receivers in the league, but the Gophers will need to establish the run with one of their young backs to give Decker a chance to really break games open.  I think Minnesota gets off to a decent start, but falters down the stretch with losses to Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan State, Illinois, and Iowa in five of the last six weeks of the season. 

10) Purdue-  New coach, bad players.

11) Indiana- Was there any doubt Indiana would be here?  Kellen Lewis is gone, but the pistol offense is coming to town.

So what did we learn coming out of the event?

• Ron Zook broke his regiment of water skiing and small child eating to show up, which was nice.  Zook actually spent a lot of time talking discipline and off the field issues, which I guess is disturbing.  Apparently a couple of bars are off limits to players around campus (any guesses?) and they have drafted “character teams” so either Zook is very proactive in attacking character issues, or there are some serious ones.  He also jokingly–or not so much–chided the media for picking Terrelle Pryor as preseason Big Ten Offensive POY.  Good for him.  Way to base the distinction on hype rather than, you know, the guy who won the actual Offensive POY award last year (Clark). 
• Joe Pa is still living and stuff, and he was there cracking jokes and drawing out plays on tablecloths about how they used to run the spread in the 1840’s 1940’s.  A couple years ago I thought he should just hang it up, but now I hope he lives/coaches forever.  Not because of the diagrams, just because I changed my mind. 
• So yeah, Terrelle Pryor was preseason POY for offense and Greg Jones, a linebacker from MSU, got the honor on defense.  Jones is a solid choice and if you hadn’t heard of him, try to watch him play this year.  He will only be a junior, but is a heck of a talent.  Pryor…well, it’s no secret I don’t like him.  You’re kidding yourself if you don’t think Todd Boekmann could have done just as well, if not better for the Buckeyes last year.  It’s not that hard to lob deep balls up to future pros when the other team has eight or nine in the box to stop your star running back.  Pryor can run and he throws a nice bomb, but his intermediate passing game will need to improve if he wants to live up to this hype. 
• The top three teams as voted by the media will be OSU, PSU, and MSU.  Well there’s no surprise there…wait, MSU?  This is a team that was actually outgained by its opponents last year, and loses it’s only offensive star in Javon Ringer.  The QB situation should be addition by subtraction with Hoyer out and Cousins or Nichol in, but come on.  The best thing the Spartans have going for them this year is that they miss Ohio State and Dantonio has been better at avoiding embarrassing losses in games they should win easily.  I like Illinois and Iowa over the Spartans. 
• In terms of the other coaches, Dantonio and Tressel were unbelievably boring, Bielema made some lame excuse about why UW plays cupcakes every year, Rodriguez said his team was on track to improve, but he didn’t seem to want to be there, and Pat Fitzgerald continues to look like the perfect guy to lead Northwestern and I mean that in a good way. 

Plenty more Illini coverage will be coming, along with previews for each team before the season gets started in September.  You can rejoice football fans, the long month of July is almost over.

5:30 pm (2) Illinois vs. (7) Michigan-

The first issue that comes to mind with this game is the availability of Chester Frazier for Illinois.  Frazier isn’t the most talented player on the team, but his importance has been noted here many times.  No offense (or pun) to Travis Walton, but Frazier is the best defender in the Big Ten.  Michigan and Illinois met twice this season, and played by the rules of the Big Ten and each won at home.  Other than the venue, the difference in the two games was easily Mike Tisdale.  Tisdale was non-existent in the first game due in part to a slow start and in part to Bruce Weber’s decision to put a smaller, quicker player on DeShawn Sims.  In the rematch, the big white had 24 points on 10 of 12 shooting, while Sims was held to seven points.

The teams’ experiences couldn’t be less similar leading up to the game this afternoon.  Michigan finished the season on a hot streak that has ensured them a spot in the NCAA Tournament, including a blowout win over Iowa yesterday.  The Illini have lost their last two games and haven’t played in eight days.  Michigan needs to keep pounding the ball down to Sims to be successful.  Sims scored 16 points in the first ten minutes yesterday and the combination of better seals down low and better entry passes has been key to Michigan’s success down the stretch.  For Illinois, they’ll need to find gaps in that 1-3-1 zone like they did in their last match-up and McCamey and Meacham will need to knock down shots.  If Frazier is indeed out, Brock and Meacham will both need to take on some ball handling responsibilities and Alex Legion will need big minutes.  With no Frazier, it could be a little more of a high scoring affair with him not controlling the offense and shutting it down on defense.  By higher scoring, I mean 60s.

8:00 pm (3) Purdue vs. (6) Penn State-

Here’s another case of the home teams winning the games in the regular season.  The underdog has the momentum in this case too.  The Nittany Lions are on the verge of solidifying their NCAA bid and have won three of their last four, while the Boilermakers have lost three of four.  Purdue has generally underachieved this season and they should be hungry to prove themselves in the postseason.  Penn State will look to keep the good balance with Talor Battle and Stanley Pringle on the perimeter and the nice inside-outside game of Jamelle Cornley.  Purdue is more talented than Penn State, but have proven they can struggle against anyone.  Robbie Hummel will be the key for the Boilermakers.  He needs to step up and be the leader they expected at the start of the season.  I know he is playing through injury, but now is the time they need him.

**Update: Sounds like Chester Frazier is out for the Big Ten Tourney and questionable for the Big Dance.

11:00 am (8) Minnesota vs. (9) Northwestern

The teams split games during the regular season, with each winning at home.  The most recent game was a 72-45 drubbing in favor of the Golden Gophers.  The key for Minnesota will be to use their size advantage inside, while making someone other than Koble and Moore beat them.  For the Wildcats, that means a lot will be riding on point guard Michael Thompson.  In wins for Northwestern he has been great, but if he doesn’t show up today, the Wildcats probably won’t win.  It’s hard to talk about Minnesota without talking about Lawrence Westbrook.  The star guard scored 17 against Northwestern last time they met.  Minnesota is on the bubble, while Northwestern needs to reach the finals to have a shot at the tournament. The winner will play Michigan State Friday.

1:30 pm (7) Michigan vs. (10) Iowa

Another split series in the 7-10 game as the Wolverines and Hawkeyes both won their home games against one another.  Michigan is coming off a giant win at Minnesota and can ensure themselves a spot in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 10 years with a win.  Iowa’s season was marred by injury and disappointment, but the Hawkeyes have a star back in Cyrus Tate, while sophomore guard Jake Kelly has carried the team in his absence.  The Hawks will need to look to big men Jarryd Cole and Tate to make an impact on both ends.  For the Wolverines, they’ll need a better performance from their own sophomore Manny Harris, as the 1st Team All Big Ten player had one of his worst games of the season the last time the teams met.  Michigan has a chance to get in the tournament even if they lose, but things will be a lot calmer in Ann Arbor is they win.  The winner takes on Illinois Friday.

4:00 pm (6) Penn State vs. (11) Indiana

Penn State has experienced plummet in their seeding propsects in the last week or so.  Going into Saturday, the Nittany Lions had the opportunity to secure the two seed in this tournament, but with a loss to Iowa and the way the other results came they are now playing in the 6-11 game instead of waiting to play the winner of the 7-10 game.  This game would seem like a yawner at first glance, but the match-ups have been pretty close this year, including a 61-58 win for Penn State at home.  For Penn State, they just have to limit the turnovers, hit open shots, and do the due diligence on the glass to win.  Indiana, well, they need to stop Penn State from doing that stuff that clear favorites want to do.  In terms of the bubble, Penn State absolutely has to win.  Their awful out of conference resume has fooled some of the experts, but it won’t get past the committee.  They have good wins in the Big Ten, but the best team they beat outside the conference was Georgia Tech, who won about a half game in the ACC this year.  The winner gets Purdue.

Last night I was hearing how Penn State was trying to play its way into the tournament, while Illinois had nothing to play for.  Unbelievable.  In all of the “bubble” hype that we are fed this time of year, it’s easy to forget about playing for a better seed in your conference tournament and in the field of 64.

With a terrible come from ahead loss at Penn State last night, the Illini likely cost themselves any chance at the #2 seed in the conference tournament, and will have to make a run to avoid playing a top three seed if they make the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

I don’t know if this was a loss due to lack of focus, effort, or just one of those bad nights.  The intensity seemed to be there on a couple of monster dunks by Mike Davis and Chester Frazier leading the way many times throwing his body to the floor.  Maybe the Illini weren’t focussed enough though, as evidenced with the poor free throw shooting and ball security down the stretch. The officials were bad, especially on a ball that went off Penn State late in the game, but there were some calls the other way too.

I think Illinois got a little comfortable with their spot toward the top of the conference and got slammed back to earth tonight.  Just imagine how much of a wake up call it will be when Penn State is sitting in the #2 seed for the Big Ten Tournament.  I’m not an expert on the tiebreakers, but I’m pretty sure if Penn State wins at Iowa this weekend and MSU beats Purdue, the seeds in order will be MSU, PSU, Illinois, Purdue.

I’m not in the mood to recap the game.  Suffice it to say that it went from okay to awful several times, and when PSU’s Talor Battle went coast-to-coast and scored Tyus Edny style with .3 seconds to go, awful was the feeling of the night.

The regular season is over for Illinois and all that’s left is to wait and see what seed it gets in the Big Ten Tournament.

In: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois

The Spartans clinched at least a share of the Big Ten Championship Sunday, beating Illinois.  With a trip to the finals of the conference tournament the Spartans will likely lock up a two seed in the field of 64.  Purdue and Illinois have been impressive all year, hovering in the top 25 for most of the time.  Both suffered big losses this week (at Michigan for Purdue and against MSU for Illinois) that will knock them down a peg or two when it comes to seeding.  If you don’t think the last week and the conference tourney is important for these two, the difference between a 3 seed and a 4 or 5 could mean the difference between playing UNC or Kansas to start the second weekend.

Out: Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern

Northwestern had a chance to sneak into the bubble talk, but a stretch where the Wildcats lost 4 of 5 probably doomed them.  With games at Purdue and Ohio State left, it doesn’t look good.  NU fans should be proud of this group though, they played hard all the time and were actually pretty fun to watch.

On the Bubble: Ohio State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn State

Most think the Big Ten ends up with 6 or 7 spots in the tourney, meaning that one or two of these teams will be playing in the NIT.  Ohio State is the safest this bunch I think, with season sweeps against Michigan and Penn State.  They played a respectable out of conference slate and finish out with easier games against Iowa and Northwestern.  Wisconsin is also pretty safe after a big win against Michigan Sunday.  The Badgers played the toughest schedule of the bubble teams, have the best RPI, and are 9-7 in the conference.  Wisconsin plays at Minnesota and finishes with Indiana at home.

Minnesota, Penn State, and Michigan are the interesting ones here.  Penn State saw their touney dreams flash before their eyes on Saturday as they barely escaped with a win at home against Indiana.  The Nittany Lions have 20 wins, but played an embarrassing non-conference schedule including such tournament bound teams as…well, no one.  Lunardi has PSU as one of the last four teams in the tournament right now, but they might need to win out to stay in with the winner of the Michigan-Minnesota game this weekend likely getting a big boost.

Minnesota and Michigan play on Saturday and the winner has a very good chance of making the Big Dance.  Both teams have very impressive non-conference wins; Louisville for Minnesota and Duke and UCLA for Michigan.  I’d say Michigan has to win at Minnesota and their first round game in the Big Ten Tournament to get in, while Minnesota has to split their home games against Wisconsin and Michigan this week and win one tourney game as well.

Big games to watch:

• Ohio State at Iowa, Tue. 8:05 PM (BTN)
• Wisconsin at Minnesota, Wed. 7:30 PM (BTN)
• Illinois at Penn State, Thu. 8:00 PM (ESPN)
• Michigan at Minnesota, Sat. 11:00 AM (ESPN)
• Penn State at Iowa, Sat. 1:05 PM (BTN)
• Purdue at Michigan State, Sun. 11:00 AM (CBS)
• Indiana at Wisconsin, Sun. 6:00 PM (BTN)

If they didn’t it was damn close.  Illinois had an awful night shooting the basketball, making just 15 of its 50 shots.  In a contest between Illinois shooting regular shots and me shooting free throws with my left foot, it would not be a blowout.

The first half saw Illinois score 15 points, but it couldn’t get worse than that in the second half, right?  It didn’t get worse, but things didn’t get much better as the Illini followed up with 18 points for a total of 33 points.  I bet that girls basketball team that lost 100-0 has scored 33 points in a game this season!

Sometimes when your shots aren’t falling, it’s nice to take a trip to the free throw line to find your rhythm, but the Illini went to the charity stripe a total of zero times.  Zero!  None of those 35 misses involved some contact on the shot?  Damn.

At least that means free throws were the only shots Illinois couldn’t manage to miss.  Layups, jumpers, threes, layups….they missed them all.  Of course when you lose like this, the stats abound such as the lowest scoring game since Monmouth beat Princeton 41-21 in 2005; you remember that Monmouth defense!  It was the first time in the 46 year history of Assembly Hall that one team failed to shoot a free throw.

When Illinois and Penn State met in football this year, the two teams combined for just seven points less than the basketball teams.  Zook’s team managed to put up more than 33 points four times.

Anyway, that’s it for the bad stats.  Illinois actually held a seven point lead with just over six minutes to go, but the Nittany Lions ended the game on a 14-2 run to steal the game.  The loss comes at a terrible time for Illinois with Michigan State losing Tuesday night.  A regular season Big Ten Championship seems unlikely now, but the Illini have to get it together to secure the best seeds possible for both the Big Ten Tournament and the Big Dance.  A win at Ohio State on Sunday would be a nice step in the right direction.