By Paul M. Banks, President of The Sports Bank.net

Regarding college basketball in the state of Illinois, it is the worst of times. And it’s again the worst of times. We may get zero teams in the NCAA tournament. And it’s all over from the Wisconsin border to the edge of the state that neighbors Kentucky. SIU was on the national stage for much of the 2000s, today they’re irrelevant. DePaul has been a joke for decades. Chicago St. is quite possibly the worst team in all of Division I. Loyola and UIC bring nothing of significance to the table; ditto for all the remaining direction schools. But two schools, Illinois and Northwestern, spent a lot of time this season within field of 65 tournament bracket projections. Not so much anymore.

In February, both Illinois and Northwestern had a very clear map into the NCAA tournament. Both of Chicago’s Big 10 teams had a route that seemed very doable given what he already saw in their body of work. Both failed miserably, and now each will have to run the table in the big ten tournament to qualify for the big dance. Good luck with that. So whose collapse was a bigger overall letdown?

Prosecuting the Illini

Ok, so you beat Michigan State, a team that’s owned you the past three years, and win at the Kohl Center where nobody does…but then lose 5/6 down the stretch? You achieved the marquee wins needed to balance out your dreadful pre-conference losses, only to throw it all away by refusing to play offense in home losses to Minnesota and Wisconsin.

You get firmly into the tourney picture, then give up when it matters most. The home loss to Wisconsin where the inmates ran the asylum was embarrassing, but not quite as embarrassing as putting up 14 in the first half to a team that hasn’t beaten you in your building in like 30 years. Quite pathetic, but let’s not forget the Ohio St. heartbreak on Valentine’s Day. Yes, you can define a heart-breaker as a game that’s over within the first five minutes. It was the worst loss at Assembly Hall since the same year the venue hosted an Elvis Presley concert; quite heartbreaking.

Much of the blame goes on Bruce Weber, because his players folded faster than Superman on laundry day. Take the curious case of Mike Davis, who matured in reverse this season. After a breakout sophomore year, he took a giant step backwards this season. Bruce believed in mid-season that Davis didn’t practice hard enough. Take a look at Davis’ results in the biggest games the illini had to have: lots of 4-13, 3-9, 4-15 type FGM-FGA. And what makes those numbers even more pathetic is the fact those misses includes lots of bunnies, cheapies, and “high percentage shots.”

McCamey isn’t a perfect player, but he is second in the nation in assists. Maybe he’d be first if Davis could consistently finish. This team peaked on February 9th, when they were 17-8.

Prosecuting the Northwestern Wildcats

When you lose twice to Penn St. (a team that started 0-12 in Big Ten play), not to mention Indiana and Iowa, therefore completing your entire set of crunch time losses to the league’s three bottom feeders, it’s hard to imagine a collapse much worse than that. Northwestern had a scheduling quirk which might explain. A front-loaded conference schedule probably demoralized them. All the tough teams came near the start, and we reasonably believed they could fix everything down the stretch when the cakewalk portion kicked in.

Instead the results were devastating. Playing without their best player Kevin Coble, NU got off to a 13-1 start somehow. It looked like the Ewing Theory was at work again. The Cats achieved their first national ranking in 40 YEARS!!! And set a new school record for single season wins. Of course, that 19 win season, the new program benchmark, comes with a qualifier.

I’ll use an example from my own life. In high school I dated both co-captains of the pom pon squad. (my status as a 6th string DB/9th string RB had benefits) but all kidding aside, that is a fact. Just like NU setting a new school record for wins is a fact. Of course, I should also tell you that both relationships with the pom pon girls ended quickly, without getting past first base with either of them. And neither one was exactly scorching hot to begin with. Back to Northwestern basketball history, and its zero total NCAA appearances, two conference titles and one NIT tournament win. As Talking Heads once said, “facts all come with points of view. Facts are never what they seem to be.”

Of their 19 wins this season, only one was of the signature variety: Purdue ranked #6 at the time. The Cats peaked on February 8th when they were 16-7, before going 3-5 in their final eight. Despite just one of those last 8 coming against a ranked team.

The Verdict

This Illini team ended up about as likable as Al Qaeda; or the ‘04 Chicago Cubs. Following/liking this team is bad for your mental health, because they haven’t just been bipolar along the course of the season, they’re bipolar within every half of every game. Take a close look at the four meetings with their Hoosier state rivals. In the four games against Indiana and Purdue, you’ll see 8-10 minute stretches in which they looked like a Final Four team, immediately followed by 8-10 minute stretches where they would have trouble beating Chicago St.

Illinois had an advantage NU didn’t, their conference schedule was soft early on, letting them build momentum and confidence. In mid-February, it looked like they had done exactly that. Then again their signature wins came against teams missing their best player (MSU-Kalin Lucas) and second best player (Wisconsin-Jon Leuer) so maybe these wins weren’t so special.

RE: Northwestern, they lost to MUCH worse competition than Illinois, and what they let slip away is worse because it meant so much more. The first NCAA tourney berth in school history would have been a magical story, attracting national media attention like the 1995 football Wildcats’ Rose Bowl run. These Cats simply choked up a hairball under that pressure. A tourney berth at NU is history, at Illinois it’s just routine.

Usually. The Illini didn’t lose as much, but letting your RPI slip way down into the 70s and 80s during March is just plain unacceptable in Champaign. And Illinois was the only mediocre-or-better team in the conference that didn’t lose a key player for key stretches of the season. Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan State, Purdue: all lost their best player (or a key starter) for a few games. The Illini stayed healthy everywhere except inside their own heads. And squandered their talent, luck and resources.

The orange and blue should be used to winning in pressure games now. And Northwestern went this entire season without their best player in Kevin Coble, and still won more games than Illinois, even though NU went 2-8 on the road this season. So I have to go a bit easier on them.

Bigger collapse=Illinois!

Paul M. Banks is Founder/President of The Sports Bank.net, an Upper Midwest sports webzine. He’s also a member of the Football Writers Association of America, the United States Basketball Writers Association and a sports writer for the Washington Times.com Communities and Walter Football.com

For the next few weeks leading up to the college football season, we’ll be previewing every Big Ten team, starting with my prediction to finish last, to my predicted champ.  This way if I don’t get to Ohio State before the season starts, you’ll have a good grasp on all the teams whose analysis isn’t “highest payroll, most talent, probably champs.”  Northwestern comes in at #8.

Last year I predicted big things for Northwestern (like a winning record) and the Wildcats came through to back me up with nine wins.  Since I don’t want to press my luck, I’ll curtail enthusiasm this season.  Last year, the Wildcats boasted a bevy of seniors at important skill positions.  This year the Wildcats return players in the trenches, with four offensive linemen and eight defensive starters coming back. 

Despite losing three-year starter CJ Bacher as the signal caller, replacement Mike Kafka does have some experience after filling in last year in spots.  Kafka is very athletic and head coach Pat Fitzgerald will need to work to get him in space to make plays.  You may remember Kafka running for 217 yards last year in a win against Minnesota.  Then again, it was Northwestern vs. Minnesota, so probably not. 

Stephen Simmons will fill in for departed running back Tyrell Sutton.  Sutton leaves NU at second place on the school’s all-time rushing list.  As for those catching the passes now that three of the Wildcats’ top receivers from last year are gone, look for speedsters Jeremy Ebert and Andrew Brewer, as well as tight end Drake Dunsmore as a breakout sophomore. 

If the offense has trouble getting up to speed with its inexperience, the defense could help keep them in games.  The squad features Northwestern’s best player in first team all-Big Ten defensive end Corey Wootton.  The seven other returning starters, including defensive backs Sherrick McManis and Brad Phillips, should continue to improve under second year d-coordinator Mike Hankwitz. 

I don’t like the inexperience on offense for Northwestern but 8th place could prove to be far too low with the improving defense and some talent–albeit unproven talent–on offense, especially when you look at the schedule.  The Wildcats don’t play a “good” team until they travel to Michigan State in the seventh game of the season.  The last four games of the year will be tough as well, but the schedule sets up perfectly to get the young offense up and running.  They miss Michigan and Ohio State this year due to the rotating conference schedule. 

Three out of the last  four times Ohio State has been absent from the NU schedule, the Wildcats have won at least a share of the Big Ten title.  Don’t see that happening this year.

11:00 am (8) Minnesota vs. (9) Northwestern

The teams split games during the regular season, with each winning at home.  The most recent game was a 72-45 drubbing in favor of the Golden Gophers.  The key for Minnesota will be to use their size advantage inside, while making someone other than Koble and Moore beat them.  For the Wildcats, that means a lot will be riding on point guard Michael Thompson.  In wins for Northwestern he has been great, but if he doesn’t show up today, the Wildcats probably won’t win.  It’s hard to talk about Minnesota without talking about Lawrence Westbrook.  The star guard scored 17 against Northwestern last time they met.  Minnesota is on the bubble, while Northwestern needs to reach the finals to have a shot at the tournament. The winner will play Michigan State Friday.

1:30 pm (7) Michigan vs. (10) Iowa

Another split series in the 7-10 game as the Wolverines and Hawkeyes both won their home games against one another.  Michigan is coming off a giant win at Minnesota and can ensure themselves a spot in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 10 years with a win.  Iowa’s season was marred by injury and disappointment, but the Hawkeyes have a star back in Cyrus Tate, while sophomore guard Jake Kelly has carried the team in his absence.  The Hawks will need to look to big men Jarryd Cole and Tate to make an impact on both ends.  For the Wolverines, they’ll need a better performance from their own sophomore Manny Harris, as the 1st Team All Big Ten player had one of his worst games of the season the last time the teams met.  Michigan has a chance to get in the tournament even if they lose, but things will be a lot calmer in Ann Arbor is they win.  The winner takes on Illinois Friday.

4:00 pm (6) Penn State vs. (11) Indiana

Penn State has experienced plummet in their seeding propsects in the last week or so.  Going into Saturday, the Nittany Lions had the opportunity to secure the two seed in this tournament, but with a loss to Iowa and the way the other results came they are now playing in the 6-11 game instead of waiting to play the winner of the 7-10 game.  This game would seem like a yawner at first glance, but the match-ups have been pretty close this year, including a 61-58 win for Penn State at home.  For Penn State, they just have to limit the turnovers, hit open shots, and do the due diligence on the glass to win.  Indiana, well, they need to stop Penn State from doing that stuff that clear favorites want to do.  In terms of the bubble, Penn State absolutely has to win.  Their awful out of conference resume has fooled some of the experts, but it won’t get past the committee.  They have good wins in the Big Ten, but the best team they beat outside the conference was Georgia Tech, who won about a half game in the ACC this year.  The winner gets Purdue.