By Paul M. Banks and Jeff Ghiringhelli, The Sports Bank.net

By now you all know that Michigan State’s Kalin Lucas will be out for the remainder of the tournament with a ruptured achilles tendon. Rehabilitation will last 4-6 months, but head coach Tom Izzo is confident that he will make a full recovery and be ready for next season.

Stepping into the spotlight for the second time this season will be backup point guard Korie Lucious. He filled in for Lucas earlier this season when the star point guard went down with a sprained ankle. Lucious did not fare very well, as the Spartans lost three games in a row against tough opposition with him at the point. Officially, MSU is 0-1 this year without Lucas

Things may be different this time however. Lucious hit the exciting, buzzer beating three pointer on Sunday to beat Maryland, and send the Spartans to the Sweet 16. His confidence should be sky high. Of course, even if Lucious does well the rest of the tournament, MSU will be missing their team leader.

Lucas led the Spartans in points, assists, field goals made and attempted, and minutes per game. Not to mention his abilities as the floor general and calming influence during the game. He didn’t earn the nickname “Too Easy” for nothing. “Leadership- that’s what my most important trait is,” Lucas told me after the Big ten tournament, “also what I’m focused on improving on the most,” he continued.

Lucas is easily one of the quickest players in basketball, if not THE quickest. His loss greatly hurts their transition game, so expect the Spartans to possibly play at a slower pace versus Northern Iowa than they did against Maryland. You won’t be hearing a game plan like this

“As far as us I think we are going to push the pace a little bit. That’s something we do well. We’re going to make sure we push the ball, make sure I push the ball at all times and we’re going to make sure we run,” Lucas said before Sunday’s game.

Of course, no player is perfect, and Lucas is no exception. After returning from his sprained ankle, Lucas went through a stretch where he only averaged nine points per game with a shooting percentage under 40 percent. The Spartans struggled as a result, finishing their last ten games at 5-5. He can also get frustrated on the court at times, and that can bring the entire team down.

Izzo knows the importance of Lucas to his team’s success, and has used some tough love this season to prove it. He threw Lucas out of a practice near the beginning of the season, saying that he needed to better realize and demonstrate his role as leader. Lucas responded well, but now that he is done, other players must fill this role.

Senior Raymar Morgan has been playing very well of late, and he must keep it up this weekend. Sophomore Draymond Green is expected to see an increase in minutes, and may even be asked to become the new vocal leader. Green fits the role well despite being an underclassman. He is not afraid to speak up and show emotions on the court, as he began doing so at the Final Four last year. This season, Izzo has clearly shown he’s frustrated with how State’s year has gone. Both Draymond and Kalin were asked what needs to be done to get this team back into Izzo’s good graces.

“I think we’re pretty much past that point where he’s frustrated. It’s one and done time. We have pretty much wiped our slate clean of everything that went on in the regular season. We’re all working together as a team now. Coaches, players, managers, everyone, because we all know that one loss and you’re done for the year. So it’s pretty much wiped clean and no more frustration for anyone,” Green responded.

Kalin’s response? “Pretty much agree with that answer.”

Regardless of who steps up statistically, Lucas’ shoes cannot be completely filled. He will obviously travel with the team this weekend, so his vocal leadership will be present on the bench. Of course, everyone on the team wishes he was in uniform instead. How the Spartans react and play on Friday will be very interesting to watch.

A good sign for State? They already beat a higher-seeded Maryland team without a 100% Kalin Lucas. They won despite playing without their star for much of the game, and when they did have him on Sunday, he really wasn’t himself again. Lucas tweaked his ankle again in the win over New Mexico St. on Friday.

“I wouldn’t say he’s a hundred percent. Because I think he’s a hundred percent in his mind because he knows what is on the line and that’s all that matters to me. But there’s no doubt he tweaked that ankle again and he did practice today, wanted to practice which speaks a little about him,” Izzo said on Saturday before the game.

Paul M. Banks is Founder/President of The Sports Bank.net, an Upper Midwest sports webzine. He’s also a member of the Football Writers Association of America, the United States Basketball Writers Association and a sports writer for the Washington Times.com Communities and Walter Football.com

By Paul M. Banks Founder/President of The Sports Bank.net

MILWAUKEE- Orlando “Tubby” Smith is entering his second NCAA Tournament (and third year) as the leader of the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Despite reaching the second round on 14 prior occasions during his career, he has to win a tourney game with the Gophs. Is this the year?

On Sunday a reporter asked how the team could do in the tourney this year, given how much they learned from making the big dance last year.

“…Not just the experience from last year’s NCAA Tournament, I think we’d play well in the NCAA Tournament. We’re never going to have to play four games in a row again, so right away I could see the fatigue on us, either mental, this is the second that I’ve coached in, one back at Kentucky, and it’s a challenge. That wall, it’ll hit you at a certain point in time, and you’re hoping that other guys will step up and make plays. I know Blake, he’s probably completely dead. His shot I don’t think was barely getting to the rim, stuff like that, because he’s having to work so hard,” he said.

Smith has the 8th highest winning percentage among active coaches, and he has a national championship, 4 elite eights and 10 sweet sixteens to his credit. However, Twin Cities tourney bids haven’t been all that common until Tubby showed up (especially with program naughtiness vacating those great seasons in the mid to late 90s). Expanding the field would get Minnesota, annual bubble dwellers into the big dance more often. And it would make things easier for coaches in general. Tubby gave the stock coach answer when asked about expansion.

“I’ve been in favor for a while. I think it’s a great — one of the greatest sporting events in the world, and certainly here, and I think I mentioned before, there was 340-some Division I schools, and that’s been expanded — we keep expanding there, but we haven’t expanded the tournament. Aggregate, make sure you expand and allow some more student-athletes to have a chance to experience this wonderful atmosphere of March Madness,” he said.

Since Tubby took over the team went from 8–22 in 2006–07 to 20–14 in 2007–08. Smith also led his Golden Gophers to the Big Ten Tournament semi-finals after defeating 2nd seeded Indiana that year. Coach Smith then netted a top 25 recruiting class, the best in MANY years for the program. Last year, Tubby led Minnesota to a record of 22–11, and a berth in the NCAA tournament.

Last week Tubby redeemed Minnesota’s mediocre, up and down season during the Big Ten Tournament, with 3 wins in 3 days (one in overtime over Michigan St.) to advance to Minnesota’s first ever appearance in the Big Ten championship game. Smith has a consecutive 20-win season streak of 17 going for him. But for him to show the University and the rest of the state that the rebuilding project he started is moving forward, he needs to win a tournament game. Now. In 2008, Smith had the highest salary of any state employee in Minnesota, and in this venture, ROI=wins in the big dance

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Will his vast experience get him there?

“It can be useful, but it’s more important to have good players, and we have some pretty talented players. Colton and Ralph are very talented, big men that are proven now and starting to play their best basketball.

It helps because you’ve been through the wars and because of age, I guess, and longevity and experience in a number of different opportunities. But it’s all about preparation, whether it’s with your staff. That helps, also, because all the guys on the staff have coached in tournament play, and so we draw from all those resources, and it’s been helpful for I think the focus of the team and their mental concentration, probably all starting with — they talk about being a unit, one unit, team work, playing together, playing unselfishly, and those are the things as a coach you work for.” Tubby stated.

Personally, I think the Gophers are getting hot at the right time, and will upset #11 seeded Xavier tomorrow. What about #3 seeded Pittsburgh on the other side of the bracket? Should they get by Oakland of course…well, we’ll see.

And of course, I can’t write an interview feature profile without explaining how he got the name Tubby.

Smith, was born in Scotland, Maryland, the sixth of 17 children born to sharecroppers Guffrie and Parthenia Smith. His large family accounts for his unusual nickname. Of all the Smith children, Tubby was most fond of staying in the galvanized washtub where the children were bathed. Smith says he tried to shake the moniker several times, but it stuck incessantly. He recalls that a 10th grade teacher who didn’t tolerate nicknames was the last person to call him by his proper name, Orlando.

Paul M. Banks is Founder/President of The Sports Bank.net, an Upper Midwest sports webzine. He’s also a member of the Football Writers Association of America, the United States Basketball Writers Association and a sports writer for the Washington Times.com Communities and Walter Football.com

This year’s NCAA tournament will see Arizona, North Carolina, UCLA and Indiana missing from the dance card. Those four tradition rich programs have produced 22 National Championships and 144 tournament appearances. So what are the benchmarks, the numbers, the standards of entry into the same class as the four historically elite programs I just mentioned?

Michigan State’s Tom Izzo, whose program has been in the national conversation for the last 10 years or so, offered a couple definitions. Izzo has led his Spartans to 6 Elite Eights in 9 years, 5 final fours in 11 years. However, his most impressive statistic is the fact that every player he’s coached for all four years at State has been to at least one Final Four.

“The old adage is true: it’s harder to stay there than to get there. There’s more outside distractions, not the media, but for the players: agents, different things they deal with, and recruiting is getting harder. I think there’s more cheating, I think it’s getting worse as we make more money- let’s be honest about it,” Izzo said.

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So what is the gold standard?

“There’s NEVER an off-season when you’re at a a school like ours; which means the school doesn’t recruit to itself like a Kentucky or Kansas or Carolina does.  We’re not Michigan, Ohio State or Penn State football; those are all 100 year deals. But you still have to stay up to those standards,” Izzo said.

I asked for further clarification on what the term “recruit to itself” means. Basically, it seems like the benchmark is having more people come to you than you coming to them.

“The program {Michigan St.} does not recruit to itself, but I’m not sure it ever will and there’s only 5 or 6 programs that do that. Do I think we’re in that next tier? Yeah I do, the UConns, Texas, Florida, UCLA’s a different bird because they were so good for so long. But I have to be out every day of the summer. I think I’ve missed two days in 14 years. Those programs {the top tier} they work, but they can be out 10-12 days in the summer. And that’s not gonna change, not in my era. Because what I’m trying to build, they built at Kentucky and Carolina in 50 and 70 years. What I’m hoping to do is get to that point where the basement and first floor are so good. Maybe one of my guys comes in from there and takes it up another level down the road,” Izzo responded before later articulating about what growth he himself has left to achieve:

“My next step is to learn to enjoy what we have, because we proved now that we’ve sustained it, and that was a big deal because if you can do it for 10-12 years or more, you should be able to say, yeah we weren’t a shot in the dark. And I’m not sure I’ve learned to do that. Players got to learn new things, so do coaches,” he said.

Essentially, Tom Izzo regards his program as not within the top tier of elite programs, but in the second tier right beneath it. Is the pantheon the ultimate goal for him?

“It bothers me enough to drive me, but it doesn’t eat me alive. And makes me want to say let’s win the third national championship, let’s be elite in that way; not many coaches have done that. The comparisons to the Dukes and Carolinas, that stuff is ultimately out of my control.”

Paul M. Banks is Founder/President of The Sports Bank.net, an Upper Midwest sports webzine. He’s also a member of the Football Writers Association of America, the United States Basketball Writers Association and a sports writer for the Washington Times.com Communities and Walter Football.com

So I figured, why don’t we go ahead and try applying this formula to this year’s tournament? And thus, my list of the best guards heading into March Madness 2010 was born. Let’s say, at the minimum, if 3 of my top 4 backcourts make the elite 8, the formula will be accepted for at least one more season. Sound fair? Eh, who cares. Here it is.

Disclaimer: These are not the best teams or even my picks for the tournament. This list only addresses my rather subjective assessment of the best guard play in college basketball, mind you, with the most important games still left to play.

1. Kansas Jayhawks (32-2)
Sheron Collins is the best guard in the country. It is easy to put him at number one because he has experience, durability, poise, and has shown he can be clutch in the tournament (i.e. 2008 against Memphis- steal, three, pass to Chalmers). This backcourt is too deep with a lot of next level potential.
Sherron Collins: 15.3 ppg, 4.4 apg
Xavier Henry: 13.9 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 41.6% 3PT
Tyshawn Taylor: 7.7. ppg, 3.3 apg
Brady Morningstar: 4.3 ppg, 3 apg

2. Kansas State Wildcats (26-7)
I love the speed of this backcourt. They’ve shown themselves to be a formidable opponent to the Big 12’s best- kept it really close with Kansas in 2 of 3 and beat Baylor twice (the next best Big 12 backcourt). They’re very capable of (and will have to rely on) riding these two to the Final Four.
Jacob Pullen: 18.9 ppg, 2 spg, 3.6 apg
Denis Clemente: 16 ppg, 4.2 apg

3. Kentucky Wildcats (32-2)
The most talented of any of the duos. If they both stayed another year, I’d certainly have to place them at number one. But, undeniably, their youth and inexperience could be their downfall. I’d still expect them going on a run to the Final Four or even a championship, but with that being said.. they haven’t played any team as talented as Texas all season. Oh yeah, and they have DeMarcus Cousins to pass to.
John Wall: 16.9 ppg, 6.4 apg, 4.2 rpg, 1.8 spg
Eric Bledsoe: 10.8 ppg, 3 apg, 3.1 rpg

4. Duke Blue Devils (29-5)
By their scoring numbers, Scheyer and Smith could easily be number one on this list. Neither of the two, however, are the greatest penetrators or the best inside the lane. Nonetheless, Scheyer is one of the elite perimeter shooters in the country. With a seemingly easy draw, they could be well on their way to Lucas Oil Stadium and the Final Four.
Jon Scheyer: 19 ppg, 5.1 apg, 1.6 spg, 3.7 rpg
Nolan Smith: 17.3 ppg, 2.9 apg

5. Villanova Wildcats (24-7)
Nova has always relied on their guards. Scottie Reynolds is one of the nation’s best perimeter scorers and I’ve always thought Corey Fisher was an incomparably tough gamer. They work well enough with each other to go deep, but the team relies so heavily on them (like Kansas State) that they could be upset early.
Scottie Reynolds: 18.8 ppg, 3.4 apg, 40% 3PT
Corey Fisher: 13.7 ppg, 4 apg, 2.9 rpg
Corey Stokes: 9.5 ppg, 4 rpg
Reggie Redding: 7.6 ppg, 42.1 % 3PT

6. Ohio State Buckeyes (27-7)
You may not agree with me on this, but ask any NBA scout and they’ll tell you this backcourt has more NBA talent than you’d think. We know about Turner by now, but there is also Diebler- a 6′7″ lights out shooter with another year to make his case for the draft. And Buford is a surprising 6′5″. The Buckeyes may have problems with depth as well as ball control on offense, and they do have a tough draw, but don’t be surprised if Turner wills his team to the Elite 8.
Evan Turner: 20.3 ppg, 5.9 apg, 9.2 rpg, 1.9 spg
Jon Diebler: 12.9 ppg, 42.3% 3PT
William Buford: 14.5 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 3.3 apg
David Lighty: 12.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg

7. Baylor Bears (25-7)
The bottom of the South region is exciting. Two of the best backcourts in the land (‘Nova and Baylor) could face off in the Sweet 16. Both of these teams will live and die by their guard play, and in Baylor’s case its allowed them to remain competitive in every single game this season- they’ve never lost by more than 7 points!
LaceDarius Dunn: 19.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 42.6% 3 PT
Tweety Carter: 15.7 ppg, 6.4 apg

8. Maryland Terrapins (23-8)
A tough road for Maryland with Michigan State and Kansas on the horizon, but you can’t deny the numbers Grevis Vasquez has put up this year and the underrated Eric Hayes who happens to be one of the best three point gunners in the land. Remember the last time Maryland had a better backcourt.. What were those guys names? Dixon? Blake?
Grevis Vasquez: 19.5 ppg, 6.3 apg, 4.6 rpg, 1.8 spg
Eric Hayes: 11.1 ppg, 3.9 apg, 45% 3PT
Sean Mosley: 10.5 ppg, 5.2 rpg

9. BYU Cougars
Plain and simple, they got jipped with a 7 seed. Although they got a draw against arguably the worst 10 in Florida, BYU deserved better. They’ll have a tough time advancing to the Sweet 16 with Kansas State awaiting. But I can assure you, if they win first round and compete with K State, everyone in the country will know Jimmer Fredette.
Jimmer Fredette: 21.8 ppg, 4.7 apg, 44.8% 3PT
Jackson Emery: 12.6 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2.7 spg, 43% 3PT
Tyler Haws: 11.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg

10. Oklahoma State Cowboys (22-10)
They have a potential top 5 pick in the best scorer in the country. Anderson will have a chance to display is ability in the best first round matchup of the tourney (vs. Ga Tech). It behooves me to include a team of this talent, with the NCAA ppg leader and 3 guards as their top 3 scorers.
James Anderson: 22.7 ppg, 5.8 rpg
Keiton Page: 10.7 ppg, 2.8 apg
Obi Muonelo: 13.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 43.3% 3PT

HONORABLE MENTIONS
-Syracuse Orangemen (28-4)
Andy Rautins: 11.7 ppg, 5 apg, 2.1 spg
Scoop Jardine: 8.8 ppg, 4.6 apg
Brandon Triche: 8.1 ppg, 3 apg

-Wisconsin Badgers (23-8)
Trevon Hughes: 15.4 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.8 spg
Jason Bohannon: 11.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 40.3 3PT
Jordan Taylor: 10.2 ppg, 3.6 apg

-Michigan State Spartans (24-8)
Kalin Lucas: 14.9 ppg, 4 apg
Durrell Summers: 10.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg
Chris Allen: 9.1 ppg, 41% 3PT

-Temple Owls (29-5)
Ryan Brooks: 14.4 ppg, 4.4 rpg,
Juan Fernandez: 12.7 ppg, 3.6 apg, 46.1% 3PT
Ramon Moore: 7.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg

• The Big Ten did, well, okay.  Ohio State and Illinois were upset in the first round and Minnesota lost to Texas, but Michigan and Wisconsin pulled first round upsets of ACC teams, Purdue made the Sweet 16 and Michigan State rolled all the way to the final game, beating two 1-seeds from the Big East. 
• In retrospect, the exclusion of teams like St. Mary’s and Creighton does not sit well with me.  Sure, Arizona and Maryland both won games, but those mid-majors, along with San Diego State, deserved a shot.  That combined with the lack of upsets really made this tournament a step below some others in recent memory. 
• Who were the Cinderellas this year?  As much as it sucks for Illinois, Western Kentucky took on the role again, beating the Illini in the first round, then taking Gonzaga to the brink behind the shooting of Mendez-Valdez.  Cleveland State, Siena, and Dayton all won first round games, but I’d say Siena was the closest to Cinderella status after their close game with Louisville in the second round. 
• Pitt was pretty bad again this year.  Every year I think it will be the one where they turn it around and play well in the tournament, but it never happens.  Oh, and Memphis: HA!  Maybe if they played anyone with a pulse after January they would be a little better prepared in the tournament. 
• North Carolina was absolutely amazing in the tournament.  Their closest game was a 12-point win against Oklahoma that wasn’t really that close.  Their biggest scare came against LSU in the second round when they were down by three with 12 minutes to go and tied with just over 8 minutes left, then Ty Lawson decided enough was enough scoring 21 of his 23 points in that second half.  Every one of their starters was a key factor or the go-to-guy at some point in the tourney.  I heard Dean Smith say that the single elimination tournament isn’t the best way to decide a champion, but in this case the best team definitely won it. 

One good thing about the end of the college basketball season is that it isn’t one of those sports that leaves you with nothing interesting to watch when it’s over.  We have the playoffs coming up for the NHL and NBA, with MLB season just getting started, so even Pirates fans have something to cheer for at least for a couple of weeks.

Despite all the hyperbole and sappy package pieces, the Michigan State-North Carolina match-up does present a great story.  In my mind the real story is being slighted by all this “hopes of a city” and “hopes of a state” talk that is being associated with MSU’s run.  Yes, it’s great and it is a nice distraction for people who are struggling, but people won’t be devastated if they lose and won’t have it any easier if they win.

It sounds fantastic, it sounds like a phenomenal story, but it just isn’t the case.  Michigan State basketball  is simply the most recent in a long line of inspirational stories of success in sports  for teams in the state.  They aren’t saviors, they aren’t “just what the state needed,” in fact about half the people in the state either doesn’t care if they win or hopes they lose.

So what’s the big deal with the media blowing this angle of the story out of proportion?  I feel like it only makes up part of what the story should be today and pushes one particularly  important angle right out of the spotlight: respect.  Why are we not talking about how badly the Big Ten and Michigan State were disrespected all year?  While the Big East had a great tournament, our horse knocked out two of their 1-seeds.  A couple weeks after Vitale was incredulous when talk of a 1-seed for the Spartans came up, they’ve knocked out two of the top dogs in convincing fashion.

Speaking of fashion, teams from the Big Ten are supposed to win ugly.  All I heard before the UConn game was how MSU needed to play it at their pace.  I’m certain they didn’t mean the pace where they score 80 points, but that’s actually how Izzo prefers it. And speaking of Tom Izzo, can we finally acknowledge that he is a top five coach in college basketball?  Five times in the last 11 years the guy has taken his team to the Final Four, his teams are rarely outworked and never under-prepared, and he hasn’t had a hint of scandal, something very few coaches can say these days.

I know it’s an easy story to get caught up in, and an easy story to generate interest for the media, but can we agree that there is much more to the story and that maybe things are getting a little carried away?  At least take a moment to consider all the Big Ten hate from earlier in the year.  Maybe Michigan State isn’t the savior for Detroit, but they certainly were for the Big Ten this year.

The last four days were no better than the first four of the tournament.  There were 12 games over the weekend and only three of them were what I would call good games.  Two of them involved Pitt, a team that underachieved the entire two weeks and the thid was a back and forth affair between Kansas and Michigan State on Friday night.

Michigan State came off their great game on Friday night to take part in one of the worst games I watched the in entire tournament on Sunday.  Not to take anything away from the Spartans who played great defense, but it was just difficult to watch.  This was almost entirely Louisville’s fault.  What a pathetic display of basketball they showed every time they had the ball.  Two passes around the perimeter and a contested three was apparently what they decided to go with on offense.  Gross.

The most hyped match-ups turned out to be some of the worst games as Syracuse got blown out by Oklahoma, who was run off the court by North Carolina, and  Duke was killed by Villanova in the other highly anticipated game.  Hey, at least with all these good teams, the Final Four should be great, right?  Nah, I think I’ll bad-mouth it and hope for the opposite effect again.

This is what I get for taking joy and celebrating the opposite of what March is all about.  Next year I’ll be back to being mad that the San Diego States, Creightons, and St. Marys of the world didn’t get in the tournament.  I’ll be looking for a Dayton t-shirt to wear for their game against Kansas, and this whiny complaining post will come a week earlier.

(3) Kansas vs. (2) Michigan State, 9:37 ET-

This is one of those times that it isn’t hard to break down how the teams match up, because they have played once already this year.  Michigan State won that game by 13 points, which sounds closer than the game actually was.  In fairness to Kansas, the Jayhawks were a different team back then and won 13 of 14 right after that contest.

For Kansas, it all starts with their sparkplug point guard Sherron Collins, averaging about 19 points per game while adding five assists per.  The kid has been on the stage before and can really fill it up from anywhere when he’s on.  Kansas can also hurt you from the inside with Cole Aldrich.  The former super-sub is now putting up about 15 and 10 per game while altering shots inside on a regular basis.

Michigan State has a great point guard of their own in Kalin Lucas.  The Big Ten POY sets the tone for the offense and it hasn’t taken him long to earn Izzo’s trust to run things.  Lucas can really do it all, and he has a good cast around him.  Raymar Morgan may end up being the difference in this game, one way or another.  Morgan is the second leading scorer behind Lucas, and is a phenomonal player…sometimes.  If Morgan is at his best, Kansas doesn’t stand much of a chance; if he isn’t, it will take a lot from guys like Chris Allen and Durrell Summers on the wings and Delvon Roe and Draymond Green on the block.  Senior Goran Suton gives some experience, and with Roe and Green he is part of a barrage of bodies Izzo will throw at Aldrich.

The Jayhawks have been playing great and Michigan State has show that it is prone to letdown games, but I think the Spartans match up very well with Kansas.  To beat MSU, you really have to come with a balanced attack, and I don’t see anyone other than Collins and Aldrich getting it done.  MSU wins by six.

(4) Gonzaga vs. (1) North Carolina, 9:57 ET-

Gonzaga gave us one of the best games of the tournament last round and we can only hope this match-up proves to be as good.  For all the Lawson toe coverage before last weekend’s games, I have heard nothing this week.  I assume that’s good news for UNC, but I guess we’ll see.

Gonzaga has only lost one game in 2009 and it was to Memphis.  If the Zags plan on keeping that whole thing going, they’ll need some help from one Austin Daye.  The 6-11 sophomore has disappeared in the tournament as much as a giant like that possibly can.  No big deal, it’s not like he has a good frontcourt to go against or anything.  Of course, Josh Heytvelt will be there too, but the advantage even where the Bulldogs are excellent still goes to UNC with Hansbrough and Thompson.  On the perimeter, one of my favorite players in the tournament, Jeremy Pargo, is lurking always ready to thunder down a dunk.  Matt Bouldin has also emerged as a star and will need to keep it up to run with the Heels.

For North Carolina, their chances are very good if Ty Lawson is a go.  When he decided to turn it on against LSU, the game was over and everyone knew it.  Even without Lawson, North Carolina sports a roster of stars like Hansbrough, Ellington, and Danny Green.  Look for Ed Davis off the bench too, the kid can play.  The Tar Heels stumbled a bit in their last game against LSU though, and if they do it again, Gonzaga can really put a scare into them.

Whatever.  North Carolina will methodically beat down Gonzaga and set up a sweet game in the Elite 8 against either Syracuse or Oklahoma.

(12) Arizona vs. (1) Louisville, 7:07 ET-

It’s hard to believe Arizona has made it to this point when I thought for sure they’d be on their way to Madison Square Garden for the end of the NIT by now.  All you people who want to say the committee got it right because Zona made it this far need to settle down though.  Not too tough to beat Utah and a 13-seed to get to the Sweet 16.  I know the Wildcats have three future NBA players, but they’ll need every bit of that talent to beat Louisville.  The pressure will literally be on Wise to bring the ball up against the Cardinals’ defense.

You have to like Louisville in this game with their pressure and their athleticism against the Wildcats.  They also have a distinct coaching advantage with Rick Pitino roaming the sidelines.  I think Terrance Williams and Earl Clark will simply be too much for Arizona.  The Wildcats don’t play the type of defense to get past Louisville.  So far they have been able to beat teams with mainly their talent, and that will not work this round.  Not much previewing needed here, as the Cards will win by double digits.

(3) Syracuse vs. (2) Oklahoma, 7:27 ET-

Easily the game I am the most excited for in the Sweet 16.  We have the nation’s best player in Blake Griffin, trying to deal with the 2-3 zone of the Orange.  Can Syracuse shut Griffin down?  Well, it’s not all about the 2-3 vs. Blake in this game.

Syracuse has five players that average over 10 points per game.  That means that they have a good chance of being in any game they play.  While Eric Devendorf may have been the face of the program for a while (tough break for the program), Johnny Flynn is unmistakably the best player on the team.  The way he carried the Orange through that six overtime game against UConn was as unbelievable as it was unforgettable.  But back to the 2-3 against Griffin.  It could be instructive to look at how they’ve handled some other bigs on the schedule.  Cole Aldrich went for 15 points and 16 rebounds in a win for Syracuse; Luke Harangody had 25 and 16 in a blowout win for Cuse; DeJuan Blair had 20 and 12 in a loss against Pitt.  Thabeet is a different can of worms than these guys, but it looks like there is some room for the big guys to get their numbers.

It probably won’t be much different for Griffin tonight, so the key will be how the supporting cast performs for the Sooners.  In that case, hello Willie Warren, Tyler Griffin, Tony Crocker, and Austin Johnson.  These guys are the key.  Warren and Johnson need to find ways to penetrate into the zone and find the open man, especially if that’s Blake Griffin.  The principles are the same every time you play a zone: beat it down the floor, get in the gaps, and rebound.  The Sooners underachieved against Michigan on the offensive boards after Clemson dominated the Wolverines.  They’ll have to come with more energy if they want to get past Syracuse.

I think this game lives up to the hype and comes down to the wire.  In the end, it will come down to whether the Oklahoma guards can hit open shots, because with Warren penetrating and Griffin drawing attention they will be open.  If it comes down to trading possessions at the end, the advantage goes to Syracuse because of Johnny Flynn at the point.  Still, I like Griffin to carry the Sooners to the close win.  Sorry, no all Big East Final Four.

(3) Missouri vs. (2) Memphis, 7:07 ET-

I really didn’t think Mizzou would make it here.  I saw something last week that said you’re better off not watching any games a team plays than you are watching one or two, because you acquire opinions of those teams that are skewed by those couple of games.  This is definitely the case with me and Missouri.  I watched them play once and they lost to Illinois by double digits.

Memphis is also a team I wasn’t high on coming into the dance.  I saw them play once and they looked pretty good against Gonzaga, but come on, Conference USA?  But man, they bludgeoned Maryland in the second round.

Missouri’s pressure is going to cause problems for Memphis and their point guard, Tyreke Evans.  Evans has a 1.1/1 assist to turnover ratio and Missouri forces as many turnovers as just about anyone in the country.  Missouri also has the athleticism to keep up with Memphis and as we saw against Cal State Northridge, a flustered Memphis team is very vulnerable, especially if the threes aren’t falling.  DeMarre Carroll will have to carry the load again for Mizzou to move on.

For Memphis, previously mentioned point guard Tyreke Evans will be oh-so important.  The freshman will be pestered all game long and while he has improved, he hasn’t been steady this year.  Senior Antonio Anderson will need to help out and alleviate some of the pressure on Evans.  Plus, Evans needs be free to score, as he averages over 16 per game.  Then again, you never know when a guy like Roburt Sallie is going to break out and score 30 more points than he averages.  Memphis also has the advantage of great players in Robert Dozier and Shawn Taggert in the frontcourt.

Ultimately, I like Memphis in this game because Missouri lost to Illinois, remember? Seriously though, Memphis is too athletic to be bogged down by this pressure of Missouri.  Therefore, Tigers…uhhh, the Memphis ones, 80-70.

(3) Villanova vs. (2) Duke, 9:57 ET-

Oh man, what a great game this looks like! Of course, that means it will likely be the most boring and disappointing of the entire slate, but I can’t help getting my hopes up for this one as the best game tonight.  I feel like these two teams are so similar and am really hoping for a game right down to the wire with the most heartbreaking loss since Old Yeller for the Dukies.

The Blue Devils sport the fantastic trio of Gerald Henderson, Jon Scheyer, and Kyle Singler.  Scheyer has been great in the postseason and Henderson is the best player this team has in my opinion.  The game could come down to Singler, who averages over 16 points per game, but literally disappears in some games.  It doesn’t happen a ton, but if it happens tonight, Duke doesn’t have a chance.  Conversely, if someone like Elliot Williams or Nolan Smith can step up and provide 15 points or so, I really like Duke’s chances. Duke is a different team since Williams replaced Paulus, but I don’t know if they’re better.  Watch for more of those epic travels from Elliot on the wings too.

Villanova has its own weaponry to bring to the table.  We’ll start with the trio of guards in Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher, and Corey Stokes.  These kids can fill it up, which makes it even more dangerous that each of them can get to the lane because once one of them penetrates, the others find ways to get open.  With these three, the game is rarely out of reach when they’re down and always in danger of getting out of hand when they’re ahead.  Much like Duke, Nova’s guards and shooters are paired with a great scorer/rebounder in Dante Cunningham.  Duke throws a lot of mediocre centers out there and Cunningham could really take advantage on the inside and be the difference for the Wildcats.

What does it all mean?  Who knows.  My heart says Villanova and my brain says “hell yeah heart, screw Duke,” but I really don’t like them. Duke struggled with Texas, but Villanova struggled with American.  They seem so equal on paper and I don’t know what separates them, except I think Duke has the best player on the floor and that’s Henderson.  I’ll say Gerald makes the difference and Duke wins.  Sorry to the family of the kitten that will die when it happens.  79-78.

(5) Purdue vs. (1) UConn- 7:07 ET

Here are a couple teams that could both be referred to as “hot” but in completely different ways.  Purdue barreled through the Big Ten Tournament, then won a couple of very close games in the tournament.  UConn lost early in the Big East Tournament (well I guess it had been going on for a few days), but they have looked unbeatable in their two tournament games, winning by a combined 2,035 points.*  A.J. Price has quieted most of the talk about missing Dyson, while Thabeet and Adrien are playing great inside.

My favorite part about watching UConn so far was when Texas A&M called a timeout about a minute and a half into the game, down 4-0.  Someone who wasn’t paying attention asked me why there was a commercial so soon and I told him a timeout and had to explain how dominant UConn was even though up only four.

Purdue is rugged enough to bang with UConn and athletic enough to keep up with them.  Hummel will be the key for the Boilermakers though.  UConn has dismantled teams so far, and when things aren’t looking good, you need a playmaker to bring you back into the game.  I think Purdue can survive a couple of runs from UConn and make a push at the end if Hummel is on his game.  First Team All-Big Ten center JaJuan Johnson could also help out immensely if he could draw a foul or four on Thabeet.  The refs owe the Big Ten one after that Michigan-Oklahoma atrocity.

I think the winner of this game will beat Memphis, but this is one that I really struggled to pick.  I think I filled out four or five brackets this year and in half I have UConn in the Final Four and in half I have Purdue.  The only thing that has changed since then is the performance of UConn in the first two rounds, so I’ll go 76-70 in favor of the Huskies.

*Perhaps an exaggeration.

(4) Xavier vs. (1) Pittsburgh- 7:27 ET

You can definitely spell Sweet 16 without an X, but your bracket better damn well have one in there on a third round line.  Xavier brings it year after year to the tournament and were clearly the best team of the four contending for a Sweet 16 appearance in their portion of the bracket.  Pittsburgh is the anti-Xavier.  Over-achieving in the Big Dance to them is not losing to a directional-state school in the first couple of rounds.  This year it was East Tennessee State that gave Pitt trouble, then a nail-biter against Oklahoma State.

While most think the close game against the Cowboys is reason for concern, I think OSU was playing some great basketball coming in and that Pitt took a major step forward in knocking them out.  The reasons to like Pitt are still the same as they have been all year.  They have a great point guard, a scary post player, and one of the best wings in the game.

Xavier plays great defense and can dominate on the glass.  That could be a problem for the Musketeers in tonight’s game though, because I don’t know if they have anyone who can match up with DeJuan Blair on the inside.  Their hope has to be to bring more energy to the glass and come with a number of their athletic forwards to get rebounds.  B.J Raymond and Derrick Brown, two of those forwards, will need to carry the load offensively, as they have the best match-ups with Pitt’s defenders.

In the end I think Pitt wears Xavier down and Fields leads the Panthers to a win down the stretch.  72-67, Pitt.

Yours truly is in sixth place, so not too shabby!  Though I did lose an Elite 8 team in West Virginia; I don’t know whether to be mad at Bob Huggins for sucking in the tourney again, or myself for forgetting how often he sucks in the tournament.  Both?  Good call.

Stormin’ Norman on the other hand, is not doing well.  My eyes hurt by the time I read all the entries it took to get down to his in 55th out of 77th place, good for the 35th percentile overall.  Things can still work out for SN though, because he has only lost Washington from his Elite 8 (who’da thunk).

My favorite bracket was called “upset city” and featured a Final Four of Binghamton, Radford, Cornell, and Morehead State.  Sure laugh now, but if that would have happened he’d be famous.

I’ll try to keep you updated over the weekend and early next week, but that’s where we stand now.

My first reaction is that such a result is not desired, but I think I’ve come around to the other side of the argument.  On the one hand, upsets and Cinderallas are part of the draw when it comes to the NCAA Tournament.  Davidson was amazing to watch last year, George Mason’s run will always be remembered, and it’s even fun to look at teams like Xavier, Gonzaga, and Butler grabbing great seeds and remembering when they were giant killers.  The bar I was watching the Gonzaga-Western Kentucky game at was significantly pro-WKU, and while I was in the Gonzaga camp, I still found myself hoping for Mendez-Valdez to keep pulling those amazing shots out at the end. Upsets and underdogs are March Madness.

But now we get an amazing second weekend of the tourney.  I can’t remember a better lineup of games ever.  There are always a couple of yawners, where a 13 plays a 1 and everyone knows they have no chance.  You won’t find one of those on the docket this weekend.  The worst game of the lot has to be Louisville and Arizona, and the Wildcats are playing great basketball right now and with three future NBA players, have a decent shot at the upset.  Plus, even if it’s lousy, you can tune into Syracuse-Oklahoma, which starts 20 minutes later on Friday night.

These games are just so intriguing.  I’ll preview each one later in the week, but just looking at them I know there is at least one major storyline going in each match-up, whether it’s the guard match-up in Nova-Duke, or Missouri’s press vs. Memphis’s unproven point guard, each game has something to watch for.

If you’re going to Vegas this weekend, you might want to stick to blackjack, because I don’t envy anyone picking these games. Some of the early lines look insane: Duke -2, OU -1, UNC -8.5  after struggling with an SEC team; no thanks.  Also, I’d like to know the over/under for the Duke-Nova contest.  It should make Don Nelson blush.

Back to the debate though.  I am a little disappointed there weren’t more upsets the first two days, that’s for sure.  Although, if you look back to some of those bracket previews, I did call three of the four upsets correctly.  Would have had all four, but Marquette was awarded approximately 22 free throws down the stretch to come back against Utah State to win by one.  Not that I’m bitter.

While some more shockers would have been welcome (ahem, Binghamton, ahem), now that the first four days are done, I have to say I’m the most excited I have been in a while for the second weekend of games.  And it’s not like the first two rounds were lacking for excitement.  Siena-Ohio State was a phenomenal game; Tennessee and Oklahoma State was great, and Gonzaga’s Demetri Goodsen gave us a great game winner in a cardiac contest against WKU.  We also had Pitt and Memphis surviving tests from the unlikeliest of opponents.  So what if the first weekend wasn’t as “Mad” as we’re used to, the next two weeks are going to be insane.

Clinton, college basketball fan, and Carville, political strategist, went through the lineup.

“Who have you got in the Final Four?” Carville asked Clinton.

“”Louisville, Memphis, Pittsburgh and North Carolina,” Clinton said. “Or Louisville [versus] Connecticut. I can’t tell. Memphis may have a good enough defense, but they’re skinny, so U Conn can probably match up against them and I think they’ll get by.”

Clinton went on to predict a Louisville-North Carolina final, with the Cardinals emerging from a tight contest as National Champions.

“Louisville was so good to us the last go ’round I kind of think Louisville will win,” the former president said. “But North Carolina I still believe, you know, they sort of show up sometimes and sometimes they don’t.

Oh Slick Willy, you can never nail that guy down.  Clearly Bill hasn’t lost any of his political savvy, not allowing Carville to stick him with a pick that may end up being wrong.  I think Slick Willy is a legit College Basketball fan though.  Remember when he went to that National Championship game that year the Razorbacks won it?