This is where the ranking of the Big Ten teams gets a little tough as there were probably three or four candidates for the 9th spot.  The Gophers might not be the third worst team in the league, but based on the schedule, this is where I see them finishing. 

Minnesota has seen a nice climb under Tim Brewster in both recruiting and on-field results.  It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Gophers improve this year with quarterback Adam Weber and star receiver Eric Decker returning.  In fact, 17 starters are coming back and the starting defense will include almost all upperclassmen.  Weber represents a good but not great–but hey not awful either!–QB that can keep the Gophers in games by getting Decker the ball.

The problem for Minnesota is the running game, which sounds ridiculous given their reputation.  The Gophers were last in the Big Ten in rushing last year and without a successful ground attack, Weber and Decker will see some increased focus on the passing game from defenses. 

Defensively, the Gophers have been awful against the pass.  I don’t have one stat to back this up, it just seems like most of the time when the ball goes up in the air against Minnesota it usually falls in the hands of an opposing player.  A pair of BCS school transfers could help with the weaknesses, with Matt Carufel (G-ND) and Kim Royston (S-Wisc.) seeing the field this year. 

The Gophers seem like they’ll be pretty decent, so what’s up with the low prediction with teams like Northwestern, Wisconsin and Michigan still out there?  Their schedule is awful.  Minnesota plays three of the Big Ten’s toughest teams on the road in OSU, PSU, and Iowa, not to mention they’ll also likely be underdogs at their new stadium against Illinois and Michigan State. 

But I do love that goofy mascot.

12.  Denver: Everette Brown, DE/OLB FSU- The Broncos would love if Sanchez fell to them here, but it’s probably better they go defense anyway.  Well, I don’t know if that’s true, but I know it wasn’t very good last year.  Brown will give the Broncos a good pass rusher and they’ll probably go for more defense at their next pick.

13.  Washington: Michael Oher, OT Ole Miss- It’s another offensive line or defensive line decision here.  You hear that Detroit?  That’s how you build in the draft.  Gar.  What was I talking about? Ah, yeah, Oher.  Some have him slipping farther, but I really like this kid and think he will be a steal for Washington. Cuz he can block, and stuff.

14.  New Orleans: Malcolm Jenkins, CB Ohio State- For about the 32nd straight year, the Saints primary need is in their defensive backfield.  Jenkins is a solid mid-first rounder and the Saints can’t pass up the match made in heaven.  Jenkins didn’t light the combine up, but he had a great career at OSU, would have been a first rounder last year, and will be a solid pro.

15. Houston: Clay Matthews, LB USC- The Texans will almost certainly look for defense in the first round.  They really need help in the defensive backfield, but if Jenkins is off the board, there might not be anyone worth taking.  They’re set at DE, so it’s pretty safe to say they’ll go for a linebacker from USC if the board looks like this.  I threw a dart and came up with Matthews.  The Texans did sign OLBs Cato June and Buster Davis, which may cause them to go for Maualuga to play the inside.  The dart says otherwise.

16.  San Diego: Eben Britton, OT Arizona- The Chargers are a team that usually surpises me on draft day, so this will undoubtedly be wrong.  San Diego did have some O-line trouble last year though and could use some help at the tackle position.

17.  NY Jets: Jeremy Maclin, WR Missouri- Oh boy, love the Jets and the draft!  One can only hope they do something to completely piss their fans off, but it’s pretty clear they’ll go offense here.  Some options: Freeman, Moreno, Wells, and Maclin.  Well, they can’t take all of them, so I think they should go with Maclin.  Freeman just isn’t that good in my opinion, and I don’t know why everyone is always so anxious to get rid of Thomas Jones.  He just had a great season and now it’s time to draft a back?  No way.  I could see them trading up to try and snag Sanchez also.

18.  Denver (via Chicago): Rey Maualuga, ILB USC- From DE at 12 to LB here at 18, the Broncos will get two starters on their defense in the first round.  Maualuga is a bonafide playmaker coming from the NFL’s farm system at USC.  Especially with the 3-4 defense, linebackers will be needed.  One of the USC guys will go here.

19.  Tampa Bay: Tyson Jackson, DE LSU- The Bucs need some serious help on the defensive line and if Tyson Jackson is on the board here, he’s their guy.  Look for a DT pick here as a possibility as well, such as Peria Jerry.  With Brian Griese and Leftwich competing for the starting QB spot, Josh Freeman could go here too, but the Bucs defense let them down at the end of last year and I think they’ll look there first.

20.  Detroit: Vontae Davis, CB Illinois- This is the beauty of passing on Stafford at number one.  If the Lions follow “conventional wisdom” and take him, the same people say they need to take a tackle to protect the young QB, which makes some sense.  If they pass and build with linemen and defense, they have options.  So instead of risking it all on Stafford, they get their pick of the best DE/DB/LB available.  If Maualuga is on the board, he’s the guy, because with Julian Peterson and Ernie Sims on the outside, they need a MLB, but here they will choose between Michael Johnson and Davis.

21. Philadelphia: Knowshon Moreno, RB Georgia- I’m thinking it’s running back or tight end here for Philly and Moreno has the best talent on the board at those positions.  He’s got great hands and I’m reading about his blocking skills, so that’s good.  He’ll be a great fit to spell Westbrook, while the veteran can groom him as the running back of the future.

22.  Minnesota: William Beatty, OT UConn- Josh Freeman just isn’t doing it for me as a first round quarterback, which is really what Minnesota needs.  Taking Freeman just to take a QB won’t do though, so the Vikes have to try and protect what they have with an OT.  Beatty will be a solid NFL player and should help on that already strong front.

Alright, one segment to go.  Check back later for the end of the first round and a look at what the Bears will be looking for in the second round.

11:00 am (1) Michigan State vs. (8) Minnesota-

Michigan State swept the series against Minnesota winning easily on the road and blowing the Gophers out 76-47 in the Breslin Center.  Both teams have quite a bit to play for as well.  The Spartans find themselves still alive for a one seed in the NCAA Tournament and with Oklahoma and Pittsburgh losing, they actually have a pretty good chance if they run the table.  Minnesota finds itself scoreboard watching already and might need a win to get in.  Westbrook and the big guys inside will need to lead Minnesota if they’re to have a chance, but Michigan State can rotate a lot of bodies in there with Suton, Roe, Green, and Gray, and the Sparties have the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Travis Walton to match up with Westbrook.  The Gophers pulled off the upset of the conference tourney last year against Indiana, and they’ll need an equally surprising result today.

1:30 (4) Wisconsin vs. (5) Ohio State-

The Badgers hosted the only meeting between these teams and won it by five.  Both teams are near locks for the tournament at this point and are both nine seeds in the latest Bracketology.  That doesn’t mean that we’ll see a relaxed game between two apathetic teams though.  The Badgers seem to make it to the last day of this tournament every year, and Bo Ryan will likely be pissed with anything less this year.  Ohio State hasn’t played its best basketball down the stretch and would like nothing more than to build a little momentum going into the Big Dance by winning today and getting a shot at Michigan State tomorrow.  The key for Wisconsin will be to contain Evan Turner.  The kid can score and is capable of putting the Buckeyes on his back for a win.  Ohio State will need to keep Wisconsin off the glass.  The Badgers are at their best when they hit the offensive boards.  So many easy putbacks and open threes are set up on second chance points for Wisconsin.

Michigan takes on Illinois at 5:30 and Penn State gets Purdue in the late game.  I’ll preview those a little later today.

11:00 am (8) Minnesota vs. (9) Northwestern

The teams split games during the regular season, with each winning at home.  The most recent game was a 72-45 drubbing in favor of the Golden Gophers.  The key for Minnesota will be to use their size advantage inside, while making someone other than Koble and Moore beat them.  For the Wildcats, that means a lot will be riding on point guard Michael Thompson.  In wins for Northwestern he has been great, but if he doesn’t show up today, the Wildcats probably won’t win.  It’s hard to talk about Minnesota without talking about Lawrence Westbrook.  The star guard scored 17 against Northwestern last time they met.  Minnesota is on the bubble, while Northwestern needs to reach the finals to have a shot at the tournament. The winner will play Michigan State Friday.

1:30 pm (7) Michigan vs. (10) Iowa

Another split series in the 7-10 game as the Wolverines and Hawkeyes both won their home games against one another.  Michigan is coming off a giant win at Minnesota and can ensure themselves a spot in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 10 years with a win.  Iowa’s season was marred by injury and disappointment, but the Hawkeyes have a star back in Cyrus Tate, while sophomore guard Jake Kelly has carried the team in his absence.  The Hawks will need to look to big men Jarryd Cole and Tate to make an impact on both ends.  For the Wolverines, they’ll need a better performance from their own sophomore Manny Harris, as the 1st Team All Big Ten player had one of his worst games of the season the last time the teams met.  Michigan has a chance to get in the tournament even if they lose, but things will be a lot calmer in Ann Arbor is they win.  The winner takes on Illinois Friday.

4:00 pm (6) Penn State vs. (11) Indiana

Penn State has experienced plummet in their seeding propsects in the last week or so.  Going into Saturday, the Nittany Lions had the opportunity to secure the two seed in this tournament, but with a loss to Iowa and the way the other results came they are now playing in the 6-11 game instead of waiting to play the winner of the 7-10 game.  This game would seem like a yawner at first glance, but the match-ups have been pretty close this year, including a 61-58 win for Penn State at home.  For Penn State, they just have to limit the turnovers, hit open shots, and do the due diligence on the glass to win.  Indiana, well, they need to stop Penn State from doing that stuff that clear favorites want to do.  In terms of the bubble, Penn State absolutely has to win.  Their awful out of conference resume has fooled some of the experts, but it won’t get past the committee.  They have good wins in the Big Ten, but the best team they beat outside the conference was Georgia Tech, who won about a half game in the ACC this year.  The winner gets Purdue.

In: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois

The Spartans clinched at least a share of the Big Ten Championship Sunday, beating Illinois.  With a trip to the finals of the conference tournament the Spartans will likely lock up a two seed in the field of 64.  Purdue and Illinois have been impressive all year, hovering in the top 25 for most of the time.  Both suffered big losses this week (at Michigan for Purdue and against MSU for Illinois) that will knock them down a peg or two when it comes to seeding.  If you don’t think the last week and the conference tourney is important for these two, the difference between a 3 seed and a 4 or 5 could mean the difference between playing UNC or Kansas to start the second weekend.

Out: Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern

Northwestern had a chance to sneak into the bubble talk, but a stretch where the Wildcats lost 4 of 5 probably doomed them.  With games at Purdue and Ohio State left, it doesn’t look good.  NU fans should be proud of this group though, they played hard all the time and were actually pretty fun to watch.

On the Bubble: Ohio State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn State

Most think the Big Ten ends up with 6 or 7 spots in the tourney, meaning that one or two of these teams will be playing in the NIT.  Ohio State is the safest this bunch I think, with season sweeps against Michigan and Penn State.  They played a respectable out of conference slate and finish out with easier games against Iowa and Northwestern.  Wisconsin is also pretty safe after a big win against Michigan Sunday.  The Badgers played the toughest schedule of the bubble teams, have the best RPI, and are 9-7 in the conference.  Wisconsin plays at Minnesota and finishes with Indiana at home.

Minnesota, Penn State, and Michigan are the interesting ones here.  Penn State saw their touney dreams flash before their eyes on Saturday as they barely escaped with a win at home against Indiana.  The Nittany Lions have 20 wins, but played an embarrassing non-conference schedule including such tournament bound teams as…well, no one.  Lunardi has PSU as one of the last four teams in the tournament right now, but they might need to win out to stay in with the winner of the Michigan-Minnesota game this weekend likely getting a big boost.

Minnesota and Michigan play on Saturday and the winner has a very good chance of making the Big Dance.  Both teams have very impressive non-conference wins; Louisville for Minnesota and Duke and UCLA for Michigan.  I’d say Michigan has to win at Minnesota and their first round game in the Big Ten Tournament to get in, while Minnesota has to split their home games against Wisconsin and Michigan this week and win one tourney game as well.

Big games to watch:

• Ohio State at Iowa, Tue. 8:05 PM (BTN)
• Wisconsin at Minnesota, Wed. 7:30 PM (BTN)
• Illinois at Penn State, Thu. 8:00 PM (ESPN)
• Michigan at Minnesota, Sat. 11:00 AM (ESPN)
• Penn State at Iowa, Sat. 1:05 PM (BTN)
• Purdue at Michigan State, Sun. 11:00 AM (CBS)
• Indiana at Wisconsin, Sun. 6:00 PM (BTN)

Bruce Weber was fed up with the questions about ugly wins after the game.  “I’m sick of hearing all the jokes,” he yelled. “We guard, we prepare, we play our butts off in hostile environments.”  Assembly Hall was anything but hostile last night helping Illinois to yet another home win.

Mike Davis had another double-double, Meacham had 13, and McCamey had 10, but it was the defense that won the day.  After Minnesota came back for a one point lead around midway through the second half they were held to one point the rest of the way and none over the last six-plus minutes.  That’s an unreal defensive stretch.

That brand of defense is what makes Illinois so dangerous in the postseason.  Even when the offense is terrible, the defense can keep the team in the game and even shut it down to the point where it seems to convince the offense to mount a comeback.  Not to mention the Chester Frazier factor.  He was up to his old tricks again, holding Minnesota’s leading scorer Lawrence Westbrook to just four points.

Now it’s on to a giant match-up with league leader Michigan State on Sunday.  After a six point loss in East Lansing earlier this season, the Illini can make up for it and draw within a half game of the Sparties with a win.  If Illinois can keep it even on the glass, I think Frazier can keep Kalin Lucas down enough to get the win.

The win last night, paired with Michigan’s upset of Purdue, moves Illinois back into second place above the Boilermakers by a half game.