Last season SS Ryan Theriot and RF Kosuke Fukudome split time at the leadoff spot after it became undeniably obvious that Alfonso Soriano was a disaster. This season the two head into the 2010 season as the two candidates to lead off once again.

Popular opinion seems to be on Theriot’s side and ESPN’s Tyler Colvin story’s comment thread proved this much. It seems people stopped short of death threats while condemning Fukudome and his excessive contract, but that might only be because the section is probably monitored.

The numbers seem to be on Fukudome’s side. According to the situation stats, Fukudome hit .316 leading off the inning and posted a .401 OBP. In contrast, Theriot hit .257 and sported a meager .317 OBP. Fukudome simply seems to guarantee a better start to each game than Theriot. The Catch-22 is that in any other situation he is unlikely to actually hit a player in. His paltry .256 batting average with runners in scoring position is evidence of that and his even more dreadful .132 average with runners in scoring position and two outs is just bitter, spoiled icing on top.

Meanwhile, Theriot hits .284 with runners in scoring position, though he is less likely to draw a walk and give the next guy a chance. Theriot also seems to thrive hitting with two outs and runners in scoring position. He hit .314 and even posted a decent .351 when the pressure was on.

After looking at these numbers I would argue that the best way to hide Fukudome and keep Theriot in the fans good graces is to actually have Fukudome as the lead off hitter as insanely silly as that sounds. His walk numbers would make him a good number two hitter, but Theriot’s own troubles leading off the inning make me wonder if he is even a good lead off prospect. I imagine that much of the love for Theriot is because of memories of fans with Chicago Cubs tickets watching as he drove in the winning run, which is exactly not the position he is in as the leadoff hitter.

The Cubs won back-to-back divisions in 2007 and 2008.  It seemed like the only thing that went wrong with the Cubs was that their hitters didn’t show up in the playoffs both times.  Otherwise they were clearly the most dominant team in their division and seemed poised to win many more divisions with solid pitching and a potent lineup.  That isn’t to say there were no question marks going into the offseason last fall, but there were no glaring holes that were cause for too much concern.

In general, the main areas that needed to be dealt with were: 1) With Fukudome falling apart last season, the Cubs needed to pick up a power-hitting right-fielder; 2) Jason Marquis had a big contract so he was going to have to go, but who would replace him in the rotation? 3) DeRosa’s contract was a bit large, would they pay him or look elsewhere for the versatility he provided? and 4) Wood’s contract was up, would Hendry let him walk and try to find a closer elsewhere (from within, Marmol, or from without, someone else) and how would the rest of the bullpen fill out?  Let’s take a look at how Hendry addressed those issues and how those decisions have played out so far this season:

1) Fukudome’s meltdown leading to the need for a power-hitting right-fielder:

Hendry had a few options this offseason in this department.  While hindsight is 20/20 and it is easy to second-guess, Hendry took an obvious risk on Milton Bradley.  His attitude issues aside (I don’t think those are a big problem), the injury history was definitely a major concern.  Hendry gave Bradley a 2 year $20 million contract with an option for a 3rd year at $10 million.  So far Bradley has hit .242/.347/.389 (BA/OBP/SLG) with 5 home runs so far this season and spent a considerable amount of time on the bench with nagging injuries.  While those numbers are not spectacular, there is still a lot of time left in the season and he has been heating up of late.  Although his power hasn’t come around completely yet, he is hitting .313 in June and his OBP of .347 for the season (.371 in June) is great by most standards.

Although its a bit early to decide if signing Bradley was a terrible decision, its not to early to look at what the other options were.  Adam Dunn and Raul Ibanez were both available.  Dunn is hitting .265/.404/.544 with 18 home runs so far.  While most people are down on Dunn for his low average and high strikeouts, its clear that he is having another monster season and the Nationals gave him essentially the same contract as Bradley got (without the 3rd year option).  Ibanez is also raking the ball, hitting .312/.371/.656 with 22 home runs.  Although he just landed on the DL this week with a strained groin, his production has been impressive as well.  Although it was impossible for Hendry to see the future, both of these guys were significantly less injury (and attitude) risks.

Grade: C-

2) Jason Marquis Out, Open Spot in the Rotation

Marquis’ contract called for a giant option for the 2009 season, so trading him was a must.  Not to say that he didn’t contribute, but he is an average pitcher and not worth the contract.  With Peavy rumors swirling, Hendry decided to stand pat and trust the guns in his farm system.  The assumption was that Marshall or Samardzija would win the spot in the rotation, with guys like Gaudin and the newly-acquired Heilman competing as well.  Marshall won the spot and performed great for the first couple of months.  When Harden went down, the Cubbies brought up Randy Wells, who has sparkled in his outings (even in the face of a severe lack of run support).  Now that Harden is back, Wells is being kept in the rotation allowing Lou to use Marshall out of the pen as another lefty.  None of these guys are Peavy, but Peavy is out for a while with an injury and Marshall/Wells have worked out beautifully.

Are the Cubs really pursuing Pedro Martinez?  Why?

Grade: A-

3) DeRosa’s Contract was $5.5 Million, Keep Him or Look Elsewhere?

Hendry decided to trade DeRosa right around New Years Eve.  Besides being a great hitting 2nd basemen, he played numerous other positions and brought invaluable versatility to the Cubs.  Hendry acquired Aaron Miles to replace him, with the assumption that Fontenot would compete for the job.  Both Miles and Fontenot have been inconsistent at best.  Miles has been just awful, hitting .202/.240/.261.  Fontenot has been better, hitting .235/.324/.390, but still far inferior to DeRosa, who has put up a line of .279/.349/.477 with 13 home runs.  The hitting isn’t the only problem however, since DeRosa’s versatility would have come in very handy.  While Hendry couldn’t have predicted Aramis Ramirez would go down for such a long stretch, things like that happen and DeRosa gives the team a  great option in case of an injury situation like the one that happened.  This move looks worse and worse everyday as the Cubs struggling offense and injury-riddled infield continue to be a problem.

Grade: D

4) Wood’s Contract was up, Re-Sign Him or Let Him Walk?  And The Rest of The Bullpen?

No one wanted to see Kerry Wood go, but with a guy like Carlos Marmol in the wings, its seemed like this could work out.  All Hendry needed to do was go out and get a good set-up man so that Marmol could move seamlessly into the closer role.  Instead he went out and got a mediocre closer and an ok middle reliever (Gregg and Heilman).  Gregg has been up and down, going through some very rough patches.  Although most people have focused on how poor he’s been, the truth is he is having a pretty decent season.  He has converted 10/12 save opportunites and his ERA is just shy of 4 (3.99).  He has 30 strikeouts in 29.1 innings.  Although he has put on a few more baserunners than any of us would like (1.43 WHIP), he hasn’t been awful.  Ironically enough, the rest of the bullpen has been the real problem, starting with Marmol and ending with Neil Cotts (thank god that guy is gone).  Marmol’s ERA is 3.77, yes, but he has blown 2 saves in 5 opportunities and given up massive amounts of walks–31 in just 30 innings.  He has been extremely streaky, putting up a 6.00 ERA in April, 1.39 in May, and 5.63 so far in June.  Heilman has a 4.50 and the rest of the bullpen is made up of AAAA-type guys or kids that aren’t quite ready for the show.  The one bright spot in the pen has been Angel Guzman, who is having a great season so far and hopefully will continue to shine.

Overall the bullpen is a mess, however, and the decision to let Woody walk is at the root of the entire problem.  There’s one thing missing in this analysis though: With Wood up on a pedestal, you would assume he is having a great season in Cleveland, right?  Wrong.  Up until May 19, his ERA was 8.31 and he was 5/8 in save opportunities.  Since then however, he has turned it around, giving up no runs and converting on 3/3 saves.  His ERA is still a bit high at 4.63, but he looks to be turning it around.  It’s tough to blame Hendry for this one, since Marmol should be better than he is, but thinking that Kevin Gregg was the answer and not doing anything else substantial to bolster the bullpen was short-sighted at best.

Grade: C-

Overall Offseason Grade: C-

Although looking within for help in the rotation has played out well for Jim Hendry, the rest of his moves (or lack thereof) were poorly planned or just poorly executed.  Milton Bradley has been a bust so far, the bullpen is a mess, and DeRosa would have plugged some serious holes in the Cubs infield.  All that negativity aside, the Cubs are still .500 and battling for the division, even with all the injuries they have sustained.  Hopefully they can turn things around in the second half of the season and make Hendry look like a genius again.

Wrigleyville23 invented a statistic last year called the “TOOTBLAN”.  For those of you not familiar with this stat, it was created to honor Ryan Theriot, one of the worst baserunners in the entire league.  TOOTBLAN stands for “Thrown Out On The Basepaths Like A Nincompoop”.  This includes any kind of out made on the basepaths, be it caught stealing, getting doubled up, or caught trying to stretch a single into a double.  While Theriot was the most egregious offender of the TOOTBLAN last season, the entire Cubs roster has been getting in on the fun this year.  Here is the rundown from WV23:

Total TOOTBLANs: 15

TOOTBLAN Leaders: Kosuke Fukudome (5), Alfonso Soriano (3), Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot (2)

TOOTBLANs While Tied: 8

TOOTBLANs While Leading: 2

TOOTBLANs While Trailing: 5

TOOTBLANs At First: 0

TOOTBLANs At Second: 11

TOOTBLANs At Third: 3

TOOTBLANs At Home: 1

Record In Games With TOOTBLANs: 4-7

Multiple TOOTBLAN Games: 4

Kinds of TOOTBLANs: caught stealing (9), taking extra base on hit (3), doubled off on line drive (1), picked off (1), thrown out at home on infield grounder (1)

Of all people one would think that Kosuke would not be TOOTBLANed that often. He is usually a very smart ballplayer. While I love Sweet Lou, the fault for this lies with him.  When “being aggressive” on the bases leads to giving away massive amounts of outs, you are costing your team runs and thus wins.  This is only a minor problem for the Cubs compared to the power outage at the plate and the awful bullpen, but the Cubs can use all the help they can get.  Think about toning it down a bit, Lou.  Thanks.

Everyone around the league thinks Fukudome is a bust after his disappointing season last summer.  Cubs fans feel the pain most of all, since a ton of us went out and bought a myriad of Fukudome merchandise.  Whether you just bought a headband, or went all out and got an authentic jersey, I’m sure you’re feeling like it was a waste of money right now.  I feel your pain, since I also purchased a Fukudome jersey tee a few days after the Cubbies signed him.

Fear not, fellow Cubs fans.  Unlike your Nomar, McNown, Eddie Robinson, or Terrell jerseys, your Fukudome gear can still have some use.  And I’m not talking about using it as a dishrag.

I’m talking about the one month a year when you can actually wear your Fukudome gear.  That month is April, and you are running out of time.  His numbers through April 30 last season were .327/.436/.480.  Obviously things declined from there, culminating with his .217/.314/.326 after the all-star break.

He’s at it again this season, posting a line of .371/.481/.661 through April 26.  Judging by how last season went, things are only going to go south from here.  Being as that you already spent your money on the Fukudome gear, you better start wearing it now.  It’s going to be tough to put that jersey on for a mid-June game when Kosuke’s hitting .245 and Lou is being asked everyday why he doesn’t move Fuku from the 2-hole to the out-of-the-lineup hole.

After a long delay yesterday, the Cubs finally played their home opener.  My toes are still cold from being out there, and the potato vodka I drank out of a flask is still sitting heavy in my stomach (it’s Passover so I can’t eat or drink most ballpark food).  The game was amazing once it started though, and here a few things that jumped out:

• Obviously the story was Ted Lilly, who looked dominant.  Unfortunately for me, I was sitting in front of some idiots who started talking about the no-hitter in about the 3rd inning.  I hate those guys.  I mean everyone knows you’re not supposed to talk about it, right?  But there’s always some jackass who says the words and jinxes everything.  Maybe you guys can’t all relate, being as that I have actually seen a no-hitter and you haven’t.  I’m so cool.
• The depleted roster made for a very interesting lineup.  The ideal would be to have Soriano bat 3rd in that situation, but that isn’t going to happen.  Whatever Lou did seemed to jumpstart Derrek Lee, however, and he had a great day.
• Cubs fans are only allowed to wear their Kosuke Cubs merchandise in April (me included).  That is an executive decision that I made about 2 days ago, and it remains the case until Kosuke hits above .250 in a month not named April.
• It’s not like it was raining hard, but their were Soldier Field-esque winds.  The kind that swirl around and cut right through whatever jacket or sweatshirt you’re wearing.  Fly balls were getting pushed all over the place, and a few sure-home runs were knocked down at the warning track by the powerful gusts.
• Another man caught stealing while the hit and run sign was on with Theriot at the plate.  I mean the TOOTBLANs are bad, but do we need to come up with a new Theriot-specific stat regarding how he’s causing other people to get TOOTBLANs.  Hard to stay mad at the kid when he is just raking the ball though (except yesterday of course, which lowered his average to .458).
• Kevin Gregg actually didn’t look all that bad.  I mean clearly not as good as Marmol or Heilman, but still not bad.
• Bases loaded walks.  After 4 on Sunday at  Milwaukee, the Cubbies got another yesterday.  Amazing patience at the plate by almost every Cubs hitter.
• Notable booings and cheerings:  When the lineups were announced, Gregg was booed hard, but Reed Johnson got the loudest cheer.

Mother Nature is trying to mess up the Cubs Home Opener, but I still think the game will be played.  Although all the weathermen are saying there is about a 75% chance of rain well into the evening, I have reason to believe they can squeeze the game in.  Here is the picture of the map on Weather.com for 9:35 am:

I know that doesn’t look good, but hear me out.  On the website, you can see the way the storm fronts have been moving for the last hour or so.  It looks like the storm is moving pretty quickly in a northerly direction.  The storm will be directly over us from about 11-1.  Just based on eyeballing it though, if the storm keeps moving at the speed it is, it looks like it will mostly have passed over us by about 2.

On the other hand, Kosuke hit that crazy home run to tie it up in the bottom of the 9th at the opener last year, and it was hurricane-like weather conditions out there.

Am I jumping the gun?  Yes.  Do I care?  Nope.

4 for 5 with a home run and 4 runs scored is all it took for me.  I’m bringing my Kosuke jersey tee out of the closet.

Wait, why am I batting 2nd? I just spun around 360 degrees trying to hit a curveball!

Fukudome hasn’t been playing with the Cubs this spring, since he has been trying to help Japan win some games in the World Baseball Classic.  He has done ok, going 2-7 so far with the Japanese team.  As usual, he is walking a lot as well, drawing 4 bases on balls in only 11 plate appearances.  What does this all mean for Fukudome’s 2009 season?  Nothing.  Lou, however, feels that Fukudome has earned the #2 spot in the lineup without playing a single game for the Cubs so far.  You want to know something?  I agree with him:

“He looks wonderful,” Piniella said of Fukudome. “He’s in really good shape. I told him we’re holding a spot for him, and we’ll put him out in center field and we’ll try him in the No. 2 hole in the lineup.

Everyone needs to relax about Fukudome.  He probably isn’t as good as his first half last year, but he definitely isn’t as bad as his second half.  Wait, back up.  I’m still not sold on the fact that his second half was all that bad.  Sure his slugging percentage dipped, but he still finished the season with a .359 OBP, about 15 points higher than our friend Alfonso Soriano.  Obviously if he can’t put the bat on the ball, it won’t matter how many walks he draws, but at least while he’s trying to figure it out he’ll be getting on base some.  One more thing: What about Theriot?  7th?

Gee, why did the Mets fire him?

Steve Phillips of ESPN has something stupid to say about everything when it comes to baseball.  We can’t really fault him for talking about baseball, it’s his job.  We can yell at him for not doing any research and talking out of his ass though.  Don’t worry though, you don’t have to yell at him.  Lou took care of that for us.  Here are Phillips comments:

“My view is Lou doesn’t have a great deal of patience for assimilation into culture, assimilation into the team,” Phillips said. “He is just not the most patient guy around, and he tends to verbalize his frustrations in an angry way. I think that may have affected Fukudome a little bit.”

Lou’s patience notwithstanding, this comment was made without looking into the situation at all.  Fear not, Lou clued him in:

“I don’t have much respect for Steve Phillips,” Piniella said after hearing the comment Monday. “Let him be around a little more and see what transpires before he makes assumptions. I’ve lost total respect for this guy. If he had something to say, let him say it to me.”

For the hell of it, let’s take a look at how impatient Lou was with Fukudome:

Piniella played Fukudome in 150 games and gave him 501 at-bats, sticking with the right fielder despite his struggles before sitting him for a brief stretch in September. Fukudome then started the first two playoff games before Piniella sat him in Game 3.

If anything Lou was TOO patient with Kosuke.  I’m so sick of ESPN.  I’m not saying I want them off the air, but can they at least not lie and call their people “experts”?  Is that too much to ask?