ASSESSING SOME OF THE INTERNATIONAL PLAYERS IN TONIGHT’S DRAFT

OMRI CASSPI:

The inspiration for these posts began with the news that the Bulls might draft Omri Casspi with one of their first round picks. My concern stemmed from the success rate in signing international players in a timely fashion and finding players that will be able to provide some impact in their initial contract without bolting back overseas. Since I found the percentages of success to be relatively small, I wasn’t very optimistic that Omri Casspi would pan out for the Bulls without researching more.

In reviewing some of the common draft sites, it appears that Casspi was projected as a potential late first round pick as early as 2007 based primarily on potential. For the next two years, Casspi received no guarantees of first round picks and took his name out of the draft. This approach seems to support my theory from my last post: that if a player is not excelling greatly or garnering much playing time (he was only playing 11 minutes per game for Maccabi Tel Aviv before moving on to Maccabi Electra this past season, where he was playing over 17 minutes a game), then an NBA team would be smart to hold off on drafting that player. Since Casspi is once again slotted to go later in the 1^st Round, it is not as if any of the teams are missing out on the opportunity to draft him this year because they passed on guaranteeing him their draft pick in previous years.

Such patience was rewarded in Casspi’s last year where his increased playing time also saw increases in some of his 40 minute averages to levels that suggest he might find some success in the NBA.  While my stance has softened towards Casspi, I still wonder whether an NBA team couldn’t find a similar collegiate player in the second round and still achieve the same result of saving money while also getting more immediate results (especially if Casspi or his NBA elects to have him play in Israel for another year).  For comparison’s sake, I looked at Dajuan Summers’ adjusted per 40 minute averages in his last year at Georgetown to compare against Casspi since both players are slotted at the SF/PF positions and both measure in at 6’8”, and between 220 and 240 lbs.

Here’s a chart with statistics courtesy of Draft Express:

So while there might be a slightly higher reward in drafting Casspi, I’m not sure if it is so guaranteed to warrant the risk of taking him with your First Round pick. Although, in a draft as weak as this one, it might be the perfect time to take him and not feel as guilty about reaching for such a player.

RODRIGUE BEAUBOIS:

Rodrigue Beaubois is a new name to pop up in some mock drafts out there, also going with one of the last picks in the First Round. While my stance has softened on Omri Casspi, I’m not sold on Beaubois. In fact, I’d say he is in the same position Casspi was in a year ago where he could use another year before a team should draft him. The reports have shown that he hasn’t played significant minutes for either his club teams or his national team. Slated to be a point guard, he pales in comparison to other PG’s in this draft, and not merely those first few names in the draft either.

Here’s an excerpt from DraftExpress analyzing Beaubois play:

“Beaubois is yet to prove to be a solid distributor and a good competitor. Actually he shows little emotion, sometimes even looking a bit passive. And of course, he’s a completely unproven player if we talk about high-level competition in Europe. Indeed he barely has any experience in the National Team with his own peers.”

These are exactly the reasons I argued should weigh against drafting an international player. An extra year or two would allow Beaubois to build on these experiences, and if he fails to make that jump, at least your team hasn’t wasted a pick on him.

In looking for another player in this draft to compare Beaubois to, I first looked at who I think might be the lowest ranked of the top PG’s expected to go earlier in the draft, Jrue Holiday. Holiday’s numbers were higher, while still being a few years younger. Instead, I compared Beaubois to Holiday’s more experienced teammate, Darren Collison.

Here are their adjusted per 40 minute averages for the past season:

Both are of similar height (6’1”-6’2” and are only separated in age by six months), and Collison has been compared favorably to Chris Duhon. Collison is slated to be drafted in the second round and fill some team’s slot as a backup point guard.  Wouldn’t you want someone who has proven himself in a competitive league and has no question marks about his desire to win or his ability to lead a team?  Once again not sold that a pick of Beaubois is the equivalent of that NBA team, saying “We’ll pass, and save the money for our free agents now or in 2010.”

HASHEEM THABEET:

I won’t spend too much time assessing Hasheem Thabeet since he is much less of an unknown. I only discuss him to offer a contrast to those international players being drafted from overseas rather than going the NCAA route. It is irrefutable that Thabeet improved his draft stock tremendously by attending the University of Connecticut. Incredibly raw when he came to the U.S., Thabeet enters the NBA with expectations to be good to above average defensively. The only question marks center around what his offensive ceiling is. Nearly every analyst I’ve seen has him reluctantly going 2^nd or 3^rd in the draft, but then harps on his offensive liabilities.  I still think he can have a long career, excelling on the defensive end and getting his baskets with relatively few plays run directly for him.  Needless to say it will be some time before Thabeet develops a 15 to 18 foot jumper.

In looking to compare Thabeet to someone, I thought it would be unfair to compare him to some of the recent centers drafted straight out of Africa. Thabeet has shown the ability to perform in the ever-tough Big East Conference and is not being drafted nearly as much for some unknown potential or his physical attributes alone.  Sticking with the Big East Conference, I chose to look at Roy Hibbert’s statistics from his last year at Georgetown and his first year with the Indiana Pacers. Admittedly, Hibbert had a little bit more of a jump shot coming out of Georgetown, but I think that may have hampered his offensive development in the NBA, relying too much on the outside shot and not enough on developing post moves to go up against the giants of the NBA.  Thabeet has no outside shot to fall back on so he will be forced to bang bodies in the post in order to get his points and I think his FG% and Offensive Rebounding rates will demonstrate this in the following season.  Hibbert’s numbers are not great and he certainly didn’t play as many minutes as he did in college, but Thabeet will look to have more minutes on the court with whatever team drafts him (looks like the Grizzlies or Thunder at this point).

Also, in the categories that he is expected to produce in, Thabeet outperformed Hibbert by some wide margins, while also limiting his fouls which will also aid him in gaining more playing time (both rebounding rates and blocks).

Here are the comparisons of Thabeet and Hibbert’s adjusted per 40 minute averages:

RICKY RUBIO:

I have to admit that I certainly would love to see Ricky Rubio do well in the NBA. If he grows a moustache and wears short shorts it would be like having Pete Maravich back in the NBA again. I like much of the rest of the NBA fan base, first was truly exposed to Ricky Rubio only last year during the 2008 Beijing Olympics. During that competition, Rubio stepped up in place of the Spanish National Team’s injured starting point guard and wowed the crowd with his leadership at the point. Also, viewing recent videos where Rubio has answered the questions of a potential costly buyout from his Spanish Team by saying he’s willing to play essentially for free in order to get a chance to play in the NBA, it’s hard not to root for him.

Yet all of the comparisons to Steve Nash, Pete Maravich, and Magic Johnson seem to be a little premature.  You see it was not too long ago (3 years ago) that we were talking about another Spanish point guard who analysts forecasted could, at his best, be the next Steve Nash.  They raved about his passing ability, his creative playmaking, his ability to create offense for teammates, a great skill set including superb ball handling, and his decision making on the fast break. (Is this sounding familiar?) Furthermore he led his Junior National Team to the Gold at the Junior World Championships, garnering the MVP award at the competition.  Shortly after being drafted in the 2006 draft, this player also played on the stacked Spanish Senior Men’s squad that won Gold at the World Championships.

Any idea who this player is? Yeah, Sergio Rodriguez. The player that fought for playing time with Steve Blake and Jerryd Bayless this past season. Even with his fellow countrymen, Rudy Fernandez joining him this year, Rodriguez struggled to improve on his numbers to supplant Steve Blake as the starting point guard for the Portland Trailblazers.

Here’s a comparison of Rubio and Rodriguez’s numbers from their ACB and Euro competitions (again, these are adjusted per 40 minute averages):

Based on these numbers, I do believe that Rubio will do well, but may take awhile to really adjust to the NBA’s 82-game schedule. Rodriguez obviously benefits from having Rudy Fernandez on his team, so one might think that Memphis would be a good spot for Rubio to land with Marc Gasol manning the paint. Yet, as astute observers have noted, Pau Gasol and Juan Carlos Navarro might not be so high on Memphis management and may deter Rubio from agreeing to play for the Grizzlies.  Please don’t think that I’m predicting a bust for Rubio but I don’t believe that he is guaranteed to have an MVP-effect like Steve Nash any more than some of the other PG’s at the head of this draft.

Thanks for reading these posts, and hope you can enjoy the draft tonight. I remember two years ago, sitting in a cafeteria in the middle of the campgrounds in the Yosemite Valley waiting to hear the Bulls call Joakim Noah’s name and seeing him in his sweet seersucker suit.  Let’s hope the Bulls can draft someone with an equivalent fashion sense and flair. Peace, I’m out.

No matter what you think about the NBA’s one-and-done rule that puts off high school players entering the draft for one year, it has become clear that there are a number of players each year that are good enough at 17 or 18 years of age to play in the NBA. This is not limited to just American-born players. There will be players across the globe who do not need the extra training provided in the NCAA or a year with a professional club overseas. While Brandon Jennings saved himself from any mildly embarrassing stories of faking test scores or accepting money from boosters popping up during his rookie season, recent revelations have raised eyebrows of the handling of these one-and-done players at schools like USC (see O.J. Mayo) and Memphis (see the anointed one).

American players are identified as NBA-ready through their year round performances in AAU Tournaments around the country, skills camps against college players, and international competitions representing the U.S.A.  Success in the Big East or ACC is generally a good indicator of potential success in the NBA. Unfortunately, we do not have these measuring sticks for international players. Success in a Belgian ‘B’ League when someone is 17 years old is almost as helpful as my performance holding down the center position for the Red Team at the YMCA when I was eight years old. International players’ participation in some of the big shoe company skills camps is limited, so we are left with two measurements. We can look at the players’ performances in the major professional leagues in Europe/China/Australia (although if you ask me Luc Longley is the best you’re getting from Australia and we should all stop trying to find anyone better from that continent of former convicts). And we can look to their performance for their national teams in international play.

Now we all know that playing time and the styles of play differ greatly in these leagues so we should not expect a player to put up numbers similar to Kevin Durant’s in his lone year in the Lone Star State (25.8 ppg and 11.1 rpg). Ratcheting down our focus on a player’s statistics (which will inevitably disappoint) the two things to focus on in his league play are whether he’s actually seeing the floor rather than losing minutes to a 38-year old chain smoking Turk named Gregori, and whether the young player is recognized within the league as a “Rising Star” or any other moniker they bestow upon their young players. These are important since so many of the players that failed to even sign with their NBA teams (see Part 2 of 4 of this series) were drafted simply because an international scout or an NBA GM started drooling over a 7’1” Russian/Frenchmen/Latvian/Slovenian who they saw walking and chewing gum at the same time, only to then walk over and sit on the bench while the aforementioned Gregori put up a nice 6 pts / 4 reb / 2 ast line for the evening. Regardless of the “fundamentals” they are being schooled on, nothing replaces the in-game experience and seeing whether your young prospect can actually respond to a setback or adversity.

Quickly referring to the “Rising Star” moniker, a player must be considered as an improving player or one to watch. Basketball is unlike other sports like Baseball or Golf where a change in mechanics with your swing or arm motion might lead to an off year statistically which can be explained away. Even if a player is changing the mechanics of his shot, he should be able to contribute in other ways, ratcheting up his defense, distributing the ball to players who are not struggling from the field, and grabbing every rebound in sight.  If a player is not consistently improving his game, I’d hold off on drafting that individual.

My thoughts on the second component of an international player’s value are that if a player’s country doesn’t think he’s good enough or ready for their national team, then why would your GM think he’s ready to be a part of his NBA team? Not only is such recognition of a player’s past performance, but it also opens the door for scouts to see the player perform against other good talents from around the world.  Whether it is playing against players his own age on a junior national squad or playing on his country’s senior squad, such an experience allows us to view his play in more competitive situations.

If a player is successful on these two levels, then by all means, NBA teams should give a hard look towards drafting him, especially for the prior reason of saving cap space. (Side note: Did you know that in 2010 there will be some free agents available that teams are willing to clear cap space for them now?  I had no idea!)  But if a player has not reached these levels, then why not hold off on drafting him for a year or two to see if he can actually make this leap?

Conversely, if a young international player is facing the option of starting off on a professional career where he would struggle for playing time, why wouldn’t he want to try out the NCAA for a few years?  I know the knocks on going the college route are that the player isn’t focused on developing his basketball skills 24/7, like he would be in Europe, but I’d counter that he would be exposed to the national culture of basketball in the USA (while also acquiring an education while he’s at it).  The game is different here with an emphasis on the star players, so unless that international player is destined to be a star, he’d better learn how to effectively play with those stars. And that’s what we’re looking for from that caliber of player, a guy who can play third or fourth fiddle, a glue guy, an “insert your own sporting colloquialism here” guy.

Dikembe Mutumbo is a prime example of such a player, although he initially intended to come over to the states to become a doctor anyway. He matured under the tutelage of John Thompson into an elite defensive player, and a player who was capable of putting up solid offensive numbers in the post for much of his career.

When I was thinking of other such examples of international players who came to the US for college, prospered under the blend of basketball/academics/socializing that the NCAA provides, I looked to the playoff performances of the past few years. Linas Kleiza (Lithuania/Missouri/Denver) was clutch in providing an outside threat when JR Smith or Carmelo Anthony was struggling from outside. Ronny Turiaf (France/Gonzaga/Lakers/Nuggets) offered that mix of toughness and spark off the bench that he acquired during Gonzaga’s frequent visits through March Madness.  I also looked to the team directly up I-94 from us, the Milwaukee Bucks to see two other successful transitions in Andrew Bogut (Australia/Utah/Milwaukee) and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (Cameroon/UCLA/Milwaukee). Hell, Mbah a Moute turned down being a prince back home to attend college at UCLA (I’m envisioning a lot of ‘Coming to America’ moments while Luc was on UCLA’s campus).

While you may argue that Canada is not a country, it still counts as international to me and we’ve seen Samuel Dalembert, Steve Nash, and Jamaal Magloire all pass up international play for the chance to get a degree while also developing their basketball skills. Francisco Garcia came from the Dominican Republic to excel in the NCAA. I’ll admit that these countries do not have the established professional league options that many of the European countries have, but these players still chose the opportunities by playing college ball. I’d argue that by doing so they achieved a number of valuable traits. They performed in high intensity settings against quality competition while also getting all of the attention of literally being a Big Man on Campus. The constant media coverage of NCAA games built these players name recognition among NBA fans. And they learned to interact with teammates and opponents who still make up the majority of players in the league.  For these players, the learning curve is far less steep, and there is far less potential for a player to fail not because of his skills, but his inability to acclimate to the US and his American teammates.

This opens up the bag to the last question we’ll discuss tomorrow… what is the potential for players like Hasheem Thabeet and Ricky Rubio, and to a lesser extent Omri Casspi?

Growing up a Bulls fan and suffering through the post championship era where grown men’s affinity for Benny the Bull and the Luv-A-Bulls greeting them at the gate at O’Hare was grossly overestimated, the draft was an eagerly awaited opportunity to reel in additional players to supplement our free agent splashes like Ron Mercer. In addition to those American college, high school, and elementary school players we drafted, we also were told of the mysterious present Jerry Krause had wisely selected in 1995, and tucked away until the time was right in 2000: Dragan Tarlac.

As each year passed, it seemed that the chances of ever signing “The Red Dragon” were growing more and more remote.  While we eventually did sign Tarlac five years later, it made me question how many players are drafted but never actually sign with an NBA team (regardless of whether they play or are assigned to the NBDL).

How many international players that are drafted eventually sign with an NBA team?

2008 – 4 of 10
2007 – 6 of 13
2006 - 9 of 15
2005 – 11 of 15
2004 – 8 of 13

These numbers look encouraging for those who argue that drafting international players is advantageous for teams looking to defer the hit to their cap in a given year. While a majority of players do not sign with an NBA in the first two years after they are drafted, they are still building their skills in competitive leagues overseas while the NBA team that holds their rights hopefully stays under the cap while remaining competitive (see San Antonio for the blueprint on this).  After two years or more, the chances of signing international draftees increase as players have been allowed to further build their skill sets while exhausting their contractual obligations to their club teams. In theory, not only does the NBA team receive a better player than they originally drafted, they no longer have to worry about any contract buy-out clauses that might dissuade the drafted player from joining the NBA.

I have to admit I found these numbers interesting in the sense that they seemed low since almost a third of the international players drafted in the 2004 and 2005 drafts never signed a rookie contract with an NBA team.  Yet, they also seemed high in the sense that you don’t hear of too many new international players playing in the league each year.

This led to a logical follow-up question: How many international players that were drafted are currently with an NBA or NBDL team?

2008 – 4 of 10
2007 – 6 of 15
2006 – 4 of 15
2005 – 4 of 15
2004 – 4 of 13

Those numbers from ’04 –’06 that seemed to support the tactic of keeping players overseas for a couple years in hopes of signing a player with some staying power do not pan out.  Instead, we find that 50% or more of the players drafted and eventually signed to NBA contracts three to five years ago are no longer playing for an NBA team or their NBDL affiliate. It’s also not as if these players are putting in extremely productive stretches before they leave to return to international clubs. (Google Martynas Andriuskevicius to see an extreme case of the struggles that an international player faces when assigned to the NBDL).

Yet for those who remain, after whittling down the players that remain under contract with NBA teams, we find a mix of above average players and those who may help off the bench.

The draft class of 2008 has seen Danilo Gallinari struggle with back injuries while playing for the Knicks, Alexis Ajinca play spot minutes for Charlotte (averaging 2.3 ppg and 1rpg) before getting assigned to the NBDL, Nathan Jawai playing six games for the Raptors, while Goran Dragic, who was drafted with the 44^th pick, might have put up the most encouraging numbers, nearly matching Gallinari’s average stats while playing in twice as many games.

2007 might be the most solid of the recent international draft classes with Yi Jianlian, Marco Belinelli, Rudy Fernandez, and Marc Gasol all looking capable of being key contributors to their teams. While Fernandez has garnered a lot of hype, I don’t see him taking that next step to being an All-Star caliber player. Sun Yue and Kyrylo Fesenko also had spot minutes with the Lakers and Jazz, respectively while also playing in the NBDL.

The 2006 draft class finds Andrea Bargnani, Saer Sene (already on his fourth NBA/NBDL team), Thabo Sefolosha, Oleksiy Pecherov (of the Stewie look-a-like fame) and Sergio Rodriguez all still hanging around. I will discuss Sergio Rodriguez in the next few days when we discuss the potential future of Ricky Rubio in the NBA.

In the last draft class we’re reviewing in this series, the best international player drafted in 2005 had actually already acclimated himself to the US brand of basketball by playing at the University of Utah for two years. For this reason I did not include Bogut or other players like him in my figures. The remaining individuals who continue to whiff even the slightest bit of success include Johan Petro, Ian Mahinmi, Roko Ujic, and the Polish Hammer, Marcin Gortat.

While Gortat certainly helped the Magic advance to the Finals this past year, there is a more glaring name omitted from these lists that would certainly have aided the Magic in their playoff run. Fran Vazquez is the poster child for what can go wrong in drafting an international player who lacks the confidence or drive to measure himself against the best in the world in the NBA. Even with the success of the Magic, it’s unclear whether Vazquez will be able to untangle himself from his contractual obligations with his club team in Barcelona.

Tomorrow we’ll discuss the development of the international player in the NBA and the development of international players in the NCAA environment. Thursday will conclude with what all of this means for the potential success of Hasheem Thabeet, Ricky Rubio and Omri Casspi.

NQTC Reader/Contributor Gavin will be doing a 4-part series leading up to Thursday’s draft discussing, among other things, the pros and cons of drafting an international player.  Enjoy!

The Chicago Bulls organization has never been afraid of drafting international players, and as of a few weeks ago some pundits opined that the Bulls might add another name to the historic list of drafted internationals: Kukoc, Tarlac, Duenas, Bagaric, Sefolosha (immediately swapped Carney for him), and Asik (immediately traded for from Portland).

After seeing articles like this one in the Sun-Times (raising the possibility that we might see the Bulls drafting Omri Casspi with one of their first round picks) it got me thinking of the whole idea of drafting international players. Sure these picks are great for a GM to sell to their fan base, explaining that the team is getting a “fundamentally sound” and “unselfish” player who they can hide overseas for a couple years for extra seasoning while saving some cap room to sign that key American free agent you are much more familiar with immediately after the draft. A number of questions came to mind as I contemplated the Bulls drafting Stormin’ Norman’s favorite Israelite, the Maccabi Tel Aviv product who is working on an answer to Kareem’s signature move which he calls the “Hebrew Hook.”

These questions included: 1) How many of these foreign draft picks actually get signed by the team that drafts them? 2) If they do get signed, how many make it onto a roster? 3) How long does it usually take for these players to make it to the NBA, or in other words how much “seasoning” do they get before they are ready? 4) Is Fran Vasquez then officially over-seasoned? 5) For as much as international players are hailed for their sound fundamentals honed in team-focused basketball academies rather than individual-focused AAU tournaments, does that skill set prepare them any more for the NBA than going to a U.S. college for a few years (a question that Memphis is undoubtedly asking in its analysis of Ricky Rubio and Hasheem Thabeet)?

Over the next few days leading up to the 2009 NBA Draft we’ll look at previous drafts and look to answer these questions and others that pop up, while also offering some advice to Gar Foreman and the rest of the Chicago Bulls’ braintrust. (Psst… Gar… don’t draft Omri Casspi. Stick to the Blueprint. Say it with me and Commissioner Stern: “the Chicago Bulls with the 26^th draft in the 2009 NBA draft select Wayne Ellington.” Trust me, we won’t be angry with you.) (That’s a USA jersey, he’s wearing. His nation wants him Gar. If you don’t pick him, the terrorists win.)