The Chicago Bears (4-3) start a very important and difficult four-game stretch as the Arizona Cardinals (4-3) come to Soldier Field this Sunday. The Bears are coming off of a sloppy 30-6 win over the lowly Cleveland Browns, while the Cardinals suffered a disappointing loss 34-21 at home to the Carolina Panthers. Kurt Warner turned the ball over 6 times, including 5 interceptions in one of the worst games of his career. How he bounces back this week will be a determining factor in the outcome of Sunday’s game. With 2 conference losses already and the Packers, also 4-3, playing Tampa Bay this week, this intra-conference match up becomes even more important. Arizona has played well on the road this year with a 3-0 record, but often struggle with the early start time in the central and eastern time zones.

The big question for the Bears is, which defense will show up? The one who gave up 45 points to the Bengals or the one who forced 5 turnovers and scored a touchdown last week against the Browns? My guess is that we’ll see the defense somewhere in between. The key for the Bears defense is getting pressure on Kurt Warner. As he proved last week, he’s prone to turn the ball over when he’s under pressure. The Bears must get pressure from their front four to disrupt the great timing Warner has with his receivers. Larry Fitzgerald hasn’t really gotten going yet this year but if Warner has time to throw, he may have a big game against the Bears weak secondary, making the front four that much more important.

For the Bears to win: The best defense against the Cardinals this week will be a good offense. Matt Forte and the offensive line must get going this week and force the Cardinals offense to stay on the sidelines. The Bears have been unable to get the running game going and that may be due to a lack of commitment. Ron Turner has them running the ball only 41% of the time this season and often times in straight run formations. The best way for the Bears to jump start the running game is for Turner to get creative and start running the ball in passing formations. The Bears love to run the ball out of the “I,” which often times is predictable. They need to mix it up by running in 3 and 4 wide receiver sets, as well as mixing in some draw plays and pitches to the outside. The Cardinals have been stingy against the run, so establishing it early in the game will be the key to the Bears success. The Bears also need to stretch the field in the passing game. Arizona has given up 8 pass plays of 30+ yards. The Bears should look to get Devin Hester and Johnny Knox on the outside, and look for something over the top of the defense. Jay Cutler, who needs more time to throw, must continue to make better decisions as he becomes more comfortable in the offense.

For the Cardinals to win: Kurt Warner must have a short memory and get back on track and in a better rhythm with his receivers. Negating the Bears pass rush with some quick routes and three step-drops will help get Warner back on track. The Bears always have a tough time covering premiere wide receivers, so Warner should be looking for Fitzgerald all day. The Cardinals run defense has been pretty solid all year. Turning the Bears into a one-dimensional passing team will shift momentum in the Cardinals favor. The Bears proved last week that they couldn’t protect Jay Cutler against the last-ranked Browns defense. Forcing the Bears to pass and putting pressure on Cutler will lead to a Cardinals victory.

Injuries: Each team has an injury to a key wide receiver. Devin Hester (ankle) practiced today and should be ready. His availability and mobility are crucial for the Bears if they want to stretch the field. Anquan Boldin (ankle) is a game-time decision for the Cardinals. While Boldin’s presence is important, third wide receiver Steve Breaston isn’t much of a drop-off. Boldin will probably try to gut it out. If he does, he’ll often be used as a decoy and has proven in the past to be much less of a factor.

Prediction: The Bears have yet to play a game to their full potential this year. Their defense isn’t what it once was and their offense has struggled, especially in the red zone, over the past few weeks. Besides the Steelers, the three Bears wins have come against teams with a combined record of 4-18. Arizona will prove to be a much tougher challenge. Arizona’s best this year has far exceeded what the Bears have shown. I think the Bears will start to get the running game going this week, but their inability to rush the passer and cover star wide receivers will prove to be the difference. I expect Larry Fitzgerald to have a huge game and for Tim Hightower to get going this week as well.

Arizona Cardinals 28 Chicago Bears 17

As I discussed earlier, defense will be the key to a successful season for the Chicago Bulls.  That got me thinking about Scott Skiles.  While he wasn’t the best coach in many ways, the one thing he was (and is, damn Bucks) good at is making his teams play excellent defense.  Individually and as a team, Skiles made the Bulls play some of the best defense they have ever played in the history of the franchise.  In fact, statistically they were the best Bulls defense in the modern era and one of the best in the NBA during the modern era.  According to Celtics Hub:

According to that list, the 2006-2007 Bulls were the 8th best defensive unit since 1980.  I’m not saying I wish we still had Skiles because we all know he would stunt Rose’s growth and be tuned out by just about the entire team, but boy was that defense good.

Well folks, it looks like someone finally agrees with me on that last one.  And not just anyone, mind you, but Wayne Winston, the official statistics expert of the Dallas Mavericks (Hollinger and others have echoed this sentiment to some extent as well).  Ben Gordon is in fact extremely effective, even with his lack of defense:

On Truehoop.com I was (correctly) quoted as saying the Bulls should not have let Ben Gordon go, especially to a bitter divisional rival (Detroit). Gordon’s performance has been erratic but last year was 18th in the league in our Adjusted +/- and he was 4th in Impact, which measure how you change the chance that your team wins. If you saw the Celtics-Bulls series you saw how his clutch shooting can change a game. In 2007-2008 Gordon had a negative impact, but this could be because the team was poor and  many players mail it in when the games have no meaning.  His offense held up in 2007-2008 but his defense was very poor, leading me to believe he might have mailed it in near the end of the season, In 2004-2005 Gordon had the the league’s 2nd best impact!. He plays over 30 minutes a game.   While below average on defense, he is always an above average offensive player.  The Bulls were at their best against the Celtics with Miller, Gordon, Hinrich and Rose on the court. They won by around a point a minute with these guys on the court. This 4 man combo cannot be used anymore. Is Ben a bad influence off the court? I have no idea. But on the court he will be missed.

The Truehoop post can be found here for anyone who is interested.  Winston acknowledges, as do I, that Gordon’s defense is poor, but his offensive efficiency more than makes up for it.  I do not agree with him that the Bulls will necessarily be a terrible team this year because of the loss of Gordon, however.  As I explained in an earlier post, the combination of Kirk, Deng and Salmons taking his minutes on defense, coupled with Rose’s expected improvement, should make up for it to a certain extent.  All that being said, can everyone please stop telling me how terrible Gordon was for the Bulls and how much of a retard I am for thinking that?  Thanks.

But what about defense?  If the Bulls all play the exact same as they did last year, minus Gordon’s defensive deficiencies (which were overblown, but did exist…we don’t have to go over this again), then its safe to say Rose, Salmons and a rejuvenated Deng will replace his offense and the Bulls will be a similar team in terms of wins and losses.  The biggest difference we could see which could catapult us up the Eastern ladder, or down into the cellar, is defense.  The organization seems to agree with that:

“We’re all on the same page that we must get better defensively,” Forman said.

“We’ll emphasize defense. We’ll emphasize rebounding,” added second-year coach Vinny Del Negro. “Offense usually takes care of itself.”

Defense.  That’s the key.  While many fans are looking forward to the big free agent summer of 2010, the Bulls’ heads are in the right place for the upcoming season.  Defense is the key to this team taking a step forward.  If Kirk, Salmons and a healthy Deng are taking most or all of Gordon’s minutes, the defense will have to improve, but how much?  Skiles may have been a dick, but everyone who ever played for him played defense with more intensity.  That has been missing the last couple years from Hinrich especially.

Oh, and Vinny?  I wouldn’t plan on the offense “tak[ing] care of itself”.  You already tried that last year and it did not work at all.  Sounds like he doesn’t really have a strategy (again).  Rose covers up the weaknesses of that with his great ability to score in transition and improvise in the halfcourt, but at some point there will need to be some structure on the offensive end.

Why should his team care about defense when he clearly has no interest in it?  The Bulls have been decent on offense in spite of Vinny.  Emphasis on the word “decent”.  They haven’t been great.  They ranked only 21st with 106.6 points scored per 100 possessions going into last week.  Their defense has been just as sub-par, allowing 108.3 points per 100 possessions which was good for 17th in the league.

His attitude is completely unacceptable.  How could a guy like Paxson have been okay with a coach like this?  Paxson has been all about defense from day 1, but his coach, Vinny D, seems more interested in pushing back his hair than even paying attention when his team is on defense.  I’m curious to hear how much time is spent on defense in practice.  My guess would be very little.

How can the players be expected to try on defense when Vinny doesn’t even seem to give a shit?  They can’t, and it has been glaringly apparent all season.  This team should be at least a good defensive team, if not a great one.  Although the backcourt is undersized, Rose, Gordon, and Hinrich are serviceable defenders.  Salmons is great at man defense.  Tyrus, Miller and Noah are all decent defenders.  Noah has been pretty good and Tyrus can defend the paint against driving guards.  Pull them together Vinny!  Make them a team on the defensive end!  Or at least pay attention when they are on the defensive side of the court.  Thanks.

There’s no question that Van Lier’s calling card was his awesome defense. Although he was only 6′1″, he was quite strong and possessed a lot of what we might call “mental toughness” (they called it plain old “moxie” back then). Even in an era where guards were allowed to handcheck and bump opponents on the perimeter, the fiesty Van Lier was considered a particularly physical player; he used that hard-nosed style to rack up steals on 2.5% of opponents’ possessions (a rate of nearly 2 a game), and along with Jerry Sloan he spearheaded the Dick Motta-coached Bulls to what was the NBA’s 2nd-best defense from 1973-74 to 76-77. In recognition of his great defensive skills, Van Lier was named to either 1st- or 2nd-team All-Defense in 8 consecutive years (1971-1978), and for his career he ranks 19th all-time in defensive rating with 97.7. Let all of that sink in for a second… it’s a very impressive defensive resume, isn’t it?

My impressions of Norm were that he was underappreciated and that he lacked the kind of statistical upside that some other NBA greats of his era had.  Apparently I was wrong.  The Bulls could use a guy like this to defend the perimeter these days.