No matter what you think about the NBA’s one-and-done rule that puts off high school players entering the draft for one year, it has become clear that there are a number of players each year that are good enough at 17 or 18 years of age to play in the NBA. This is not limited to just American-born players. There will be players across the globe who do not need the extra training provided in the NCAA or a year with a professional club overseas. While Brandon Jennings saved himself from any mildly embarrassing stories of faking test scores or accepting money from boosters popping up during his rookie season, recent revelations have raised eyebrows of the handling of these one-and-done players at schools like USC (see O.J. Mayo) and Memphis (see the anointed one).

American players are identified as NBA-ready through their year round performances in AAU Tournaments around the country, skills camps against college players, and international competitions representing the U.S.A.  Success in the Big East or ACC is generally a good indicator of potential success in the NBA. Unfortunately, we do not have these measuring sticks for international players. Success in a Belgian ‘B’ League when someone is 17 years old is almost as helpful as my performance holding down the center position for the Red Team at the YMCA when I was eight years old. International players’ participation in some of the big shoe company skills camps is limited, so we are left with two measurements. We can look at the players’ performances in the major professional leagues in Europe/China/Australia (although if you ask me Luc Longley is the best you’re getting from Australia and we should all stop trying to find anyone better from that continent of former convicts). And we can look to their performance for their national teams in international play.

Now we all know that playing time and the styles of play differ greatly in these leagues so we should not expect a player to put up numbers similar to Kevin Durant’s in his lone year in the Lone Star State (25.8 ppg and 11.1 rpg). Ratcheting down our focus on a player’s statistics (which will inevitably disappoint) the two things to focus on in his league play are whether he’s actually seeing the floor rather than losing minutes to a 38-year old chain smoking Turk named Gregori, and whether the young player is recognized within the league as a “Rising Star” or any other moniker they bestow upon their young players. These are important since so many of the players that failed to even sign with their NBA teams (see Part 2 of 4 of this series) were drafted simply because an international scout or an NBA GM started drooling over a 7’1” Russian/Frenchmen/Latvian/Slovenian who they saw walking and chewing gum at the same time, only to then walk over and sit on the bench while the aforementioned Gregori put up a nice 6 pts / 4 reb / 2 ast line for the evening. Regardless of the “fundamentals” they are being schooled on, nothing replaces the in-game experience and seeing whether your young prospect can actually respond to a setback or adversity.

Quickly referring to the “Rising Star” moniker, a player must be considered as an improving player or one to watch. Basketball is unlike other sports like Baseball or Golf where a change in mechanics with your swing or arm motion might lead to an off year statistically which can be explained away. Even if a player is changing the mechanics of his shot, he should be able to contribute in other ways, ratcheting up his defense, distributing the ball to players who are not struggling from the field, and grabbing every rebound in sight.  If a player is not consistently improving his game, I’d hold off on drafting that individual.

My thoughts on the second component of an international player’s value are that if a player’s country doesn’t think he’s good enough or ready for their national team, then why would your GM think he’s ready to be a part of his NBA team? Not only is such recognition of a player’s past performance, but it also opens the door for scouts to see the player perform against other good talents from around the world.  Whether it is playing against players his own age on a junior national squad or playing on his country’s senior squad, such an experience allows us to view his play in more competitive situations.

If a player is successful on these two levels, then by all means, NBA teams should give a hard look towards drafting him, especially for the prior reason of saving cap space. (Side note: Did you know that in 2010 there will be some free agents available that teams are willing to clear cap space for them now?  I had no idea!)  But if a player has not reached these levels, then why not hold off on drafting him for a year or two to see if he can actually make this leap?

Conversely, if a young international player is facing the option of starting off on a professional career where he would struggle for playing time, why wouldn’t he want to try out the NCAA for a few years?  I know the knocks on going the college route are that the player isn’t focused on developing his basketball skills 24/7, like he would be in Europe, but I’d counter that he would be exposed to the national culture of basketball in the USA (while also acquiring an education while he’s at it).  The game is different here with an emphasis on the star players, so unless that international player is destined to be a star, he’d better learn how to effectively play with those stars. And that’s what we’re looking for from that caliber of player, a guy who can play third or fourth fiddle, a glue guy, an “insert your own sporting colloquialism here” guy.

Dikembe Mutumbo is a prime example of such a player, although he initially intended to come over to the states to become a doctor anyway. He matured under the tutelage of John Thompson into an elite defensive player, and a player who was capable of putting up solid offensive numbers in the post for much of his career.

When I was thinking of other such examples of international players who came to the US for college, prospered under the blend of basketball/academics/socializing that the NCAA provides, I looked to the playoff performances of the past few years. Linas Kleiza (Lithuania/Missouri/Denver) was clutch in providing an outside threat when JR Smith or Carmelo Anthony was struggling from outside. Ronny Turiaf (France/Gonzaga/Lakers/Nuggets) offered that mix of toughness and spark off the bench that he acquired during Gonzaga’s frequent visits through March Madness.  I also looked to the team directly up I-94 from us, the Milwaukee Bucks to see two other successful transitions in Andrew Bogut (Australia/Utah/Milwaukee) and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (Cameroon/UCLA/Milwaukee). Hell, Mbah a Moute turned down being a prince back home to attend college at UCLA (I’m envisioning a lot of ‘Coming to America’ moments while Luc was on UCLA’s campus).

While you may argue that Canada is not a country, it still counts as international to me and we’ve seen Samuel Dalembert, Steve Nash, and Jamaal Magloire all pass up international play for the chance to get a degree while also developing their basketball skills. Francisco Garcia came from the Dominican Republic to excel in the NCAA. I’ll admit that these countries do not have the established professional league options that many of the European countries have, but these players still chose the opportunities by playing college ball. I’d argue that by doing so they achieved a number of valuable traits. They performed in high intensity settings against quality competition while also getting all of the attention of literally being a Big Man on Campus. The constant media coverage of NCAA games built these players name recognition among NBA fans. And they learned to interact with teammates and opponents who still make up the majority of players in the league.  For these players, the learning curve is far less steep, and there is far less potential for a player to fail not because of his skills, but his inability to acclimate to the US and his American teammates.

This opens up the bag to the last question we’ll discuss tomorrow… what is the potential for players like Hasheem Thabeet and Ricky Rubio, and to a lesser extent Omri Casspi?