h/t: Javier Sandooski

This exercise was not simple.  The first issue is determining what the salary cap will be.  Rumors have it ranging from $49 million all the way to $58 million.  For this post, we will be assuming it is $53 million.  Also, there are many player options, team options, conditional contracts, draft picks and other variables that must be considered.  The initial salary number next to each team is based on an educated guess about what teams will do with options and draft picks.  The last thing to keep in mind is that any of these players may re-sign with the team they are currently on and go over the cap due to the Larry Bird Exception.  That puts Toronto in the running for Bosh, Cleveland for James, Phoenix for Stoudemire, and so on.  I used HoopsHype for all the salary information, but be careful if you click that link, its extremely addictive.  Anyways, here we go.

TEAMS WITH ENOUGH SPACE TO SIGN AT LEAST ONE MAX CONTRACT

MIAMI HEAT
2010-2011 Salary: $7.13 Million
Estimated Cap Space: $45.87 Million

The Miami Heat literally only have 2 players on the books for next season, Beasley and Daequan Cook.  Presumably they will pick up Chalmers $847,000 option, bringing them up to about $8 million.  Wade has a $17.15 million option, but that will be a non-issue since the Heat would have to cough up more than that to match the max offers he is likely to get.  If you allow for the Heat to fill out their roster with scrubs that will still leave them about $40 million in space under the cap, enough to comfortably offer Wade and another big name max contracts.

NEW YORK KNICKS
2010-2011 Salary: $18.64 Million
Estimated Cap Space:$34.36 Million

Ahhh the Knicks.  Somehow they managed to swing a miracle before the deadline and land McGrady’s gigantic expiring contract.  Hilariously enough, the only really bad contract they have left from the Isiah era is Eddy Curry’s $11 million.  With Gallinari, Curry, Wilson Chandler, and Toney Douglas, the Knicks don’t exactly have the pieces to help a star win a championship.  On the other hand, with the money they have available, they may be able to sign two max contracts.  It would push them over the cap a bit, but they haven’t been shy about doing that before.  It’s also New York and the Garden and the lights and the media, so that could be a huge draw for guys like LeBron.

NEW JERSEY NETS
2010-2011 Salary: $31 Million
Estimated Cap Space: $22 Million

Okay, I made up that $31 million number.  The truth is that its more like $26 million, but everyone knows that the Nets will probably have a top 3 draft pick, putting them on the hook for another 4.5-5 million.  The question is: Does anyone want to play for the Nets?  At first glance the answer is no, seeing as how they are just awful this season.  But if you look a little closer the fact is that they have two very good young players in Devin Harris and Brook Lopez.  There are really only 7 teams with space for max contracts (9 spots if you think the Knicks and Heat each get two, though that is unlikely).  There is a possibility that one of the guys that doesn’t go to New York, Chicago or Miami may want to get rich playing in New Jersey.

CHICAGO BULLS
2010-2011 Salary: $31.86 Million
Estimated Cap Space: $21.14 Million

The Bulls have the best core out of all the teams with legitimate space to sign a max contract.  Rose, Hinrich, Deng, Gibson and Noah.  That’s one all-star/rising superstar in Rose, two borderline all-stars in Noah and Deng, and two very good role players in Kirk and Taj.  Even after draft picks (the Bulls own and the one they may be getting from Charlotte), they still have about $20 million to spend.  Chicago, Miami, and New York are the frontrunners for a big name free agent, but Chicago has by far the best young core to place around him.

WASHINGTON WIZARDS
2010-2011 Salary: $34 Million
Estimated Cap Space: $19 Million

You have to assume two things here, though anything can change.  First, that the Wiz will decline Josh Howard’s $11 million team option, and second, that they will pick up Randy Foye’s $4.75 Million option.  So the Wizards have enough space to just barely offer a max contract.  The same thing I said about the Nets applies here, the only difference is that the Wizards don’t have any talent.  At all.  Like the Nets someone might want to come to the Wizards and get rich toiling for a terrible team, but it definitely won’t be LeBron or Wade.

THE REST (Teams that are cutting it close in cap space)

Sacramento Kings
2010-2011 Salary: $34 Million
Estimated Cap Space: $19 Million

L.A. Clippers
2010-2011 Salary: $35 Million
Estimated Cap Space: $18 Million

Minnesota Timberwolves
2010-2011 Salary: $35.17 Million
Estimated Cap Space: $17.83 Million

THE FREE AGENTS AND THEIR LIKELY DESTINATIONS

LeBron James: Will he stay in Cleveland?  If he can win with Antawn Jamison right now, it seems plausible that he will stay.  On the other hand you never know.  The allure of New York may draw him, especially if he can bring his buddy D-Wade with him.  That possibility exists now that the Knicks cleared the space.  The only other real contender for James is Chicago purely because of the talent they can put around him, although their chances are slim at best.

Dwyane Wade: Miami can keep Wade and sign another big name, if another big name will come there.  James and Wade in Miami?  It could happen.  The main other target for Wade is Chicago.  It’s his hometown and he has always liked Rose (rumor has it he lobbied Riley to try to trade up to get Rose in the 2008 draft).  While the Heat do have a ton of cap space, they also have no talent to put around him.  The only way they keep Wade is if they get another big free agent to play alongside him.  Otherwise, he’ll be in Chicago or New York by the end of the summer.

Chris Bosh: Don’t tell Raptors fans, but its possible Bosh could leave Canada.  It appears he does like the city, but they are in no position to really shake the team up at all.  Is he content to toil away in obscurity for a .500 team and hope the youth improves around him?  Maybe, but he might also be looking to sell some jerseys and win some championships.  Chicago, New York, and Miami are all options, although he may consider going to one of the other teams with space, since he has expressed his interest in being “The Man”, which wouldn’t go well with him on a team with James or Wade.

Kobe Bryant: Los Angeles.  Not only are they the best team in the league, but he would probably have to take a pay cut if he exercised his early termination clause.

Dirk Nowitzki: Dallas.  There is no reason to think he would leave.  He loves Dallas and they love him.  He will definitely exercise his player option unless something crazy happens.

Joe Johnson: Everyone is talking about how this guy will be leaving, but my question is why?  He is on a great young team in Atlanta that is getting better every year.  He is the alpha dog on that team, and he is living and playing in a great city.  On the other hand, the allure of Chicago or New York or playing with James, Wade, or Bosh may draw him out.  Although James/Wade/Bosh are the most talked about names, don’t let JJ slip under your radar.  He is a very versatile big guard that can do it all.

Carlos Boozer: Who knows where he will go.  He seems like the kind of guy that would take max money to go waste away in Washington or New Jersey, doesn’t he?  After he screwed Cleveland a few years back, its hard to think that he cares about anything beyond the money.  That being said, he may be the “other” guy that Miami or New York is looking for after signing Wade or James.

Amare Stoudemire: I can tell you where he probably won’t be: Phoenix.  They have spurned him so many times its ridiculous.  Steve Kerr clearly doesn’t want him.  Could he go to Chicago?  Maybe.  New York? Miami? Maybe.  There’s no way to tell how it will shake down, but if teams can get past his defensive liabilities, he will be a high-profile target.

Paul Pierce: Boston.  He won’t leave.  Now that he has a ring there, Rondo is an all-star, and Garnett is signed through 2050 (just kidding, 2012), he’ll stick it out with this crew and try to win another ring.

OTHER NON-MAX CONTRACT NOTABLE FREE AGENTS:

Marcus Camby, Manu Ginobili, Ray Allen, Brendan Haywood, Kenyon Martin, Tyson Chandler.

What you’re witnessing here folks are angry Canadians who lash out whenever besmirches the Raptors or FC Toronto (They know the Blue Jays suck and will forever battle with Baltimore for 4th place in the AL East.) They might be all nice and friendly backpacking through Europe with their maple leaf patches sewn onto their satchels, but mention a trade rumor without said rumor coming from Bryan Colangelo or Andrea Bargnani’s father, and prepare to have your integrity and intelligence questioned.

If I were in CB4’s shoes I would be looking at 2 things: how much money would I keep after taxes and my supporting cast.
Canadian Federal and Ontario Provincial income tax rate for millionaires = 40%
US Federal and IL state income taxes = 36.95%
US Federal and FL (0%) state income taxes = 35%
So yes, he’d probably rather play in Florida, not only because of the weather, the clothing or lack thereof, and the pocketing of a lot more money after taxes.

In terms of supporting casts:
In Toronto after signing Hedo to the big contract last offseason, Bosh will be looking at the tall, athletic supporting cast of Turkoglu, Bargnani, DeRozan and Calderon/Jack at the point. Unfortunately, if he resigns for the max, he may still only be stuck at .500 for the next few years while Turkoglu ages and stays further and further away from the basket.
In Miami, Bosh is only guaranteed to have Michael “I told myself to go to Rehab” Beasley, Daequan Cook, and Mario Chalmers. They’d be favorite to win the NCAA Tournament 3 years ago, but that’s a lot of uncertainty and hope pinned on Wade coming back to fill that space.
Lastly, Chicago. Next year Bosh would be surrounded by Deng, Noah, Rose, and Gibson/Johnson. (I’m purposefully ignoring John Salmons as I hope he disappears through trade or supernatural forces.

Honestly, Deng is only 24 while Turkoglu is 30. Their careers are likely on different trajectories and Deng is having a better season statistically even in this year. With a consistent scoring threat inside, his play would only improve. Rose has the ability to be an annual All-Star. Ignoring James Johnson, Taj Gibson is having a surprisingly good rookie season, outplaying DeRozan. And most importantly, Bosh would get to play the PF position, with Noah banging inside and crashing the offensive boards. This alone will extend Bosh’s career and allow him to spot up for the jump shots.
Honestly, if you’re a PF/C who would you rather have as a teammate lining up as your fellow PF/C:
A guy averaging 16.8 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.1 apg, 1.3 bpg Efficiency +16.31
or
A guy averaging 10.6 ppg, 12.2 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.8 bpg, Efficiency +19.85

Yeah you know you’d take the second guy, who is surprise! Joakim Noah.

I’m not trashing the Raptors because they do have a nice blend of players, but Bosh knows it’s not working up there. And by working I mean winning a championship.  He’s going to be tempted to go elsewhere this offseason, so why wouldn’t Toronto try to get something for him?

I could not agree more with every single part of this analysis.  And my knocks on the city of Toronto in the comments yesterday were a joke.  I’ve never been but I have heard wonderful things.  Anyways, hopefully Mr. Bosh sees the light and comes to Chicago since there is a good chance it makes the most sense for him.

Try this on for size, as something that is percolating. And as of now, this is all I can tell you. I’m not going to tell you this is a done deal, or that it’s even close, but as far as something that is out there as a possibility. Hinrich, Tyrus Thomas, and at least one pick to the Toronto Raptors for Chris Bosh.

Now it totally depends on how they value Tyrus, but it seems unlikely that the Raptors would take a bad contract like Hinrich’s.  The likelihood is that they will want an expiring contract and some young talent and/or draft picks.  The rumor isn’t exactly substantiated by any real evidence either, but we can always dream…

This deal wasn’t anything major, which is probably why nobody either noticed or cared that it took place on the day of Game Three of the Magic-Lakers Championship series. But the domino effect that might happen could be something everyone notices.

Let me state again, for emphasis, what the Raptors did yesterday: They traded for a power forward.

This comes within a handful of days of the Raptors’ franchise player, Chris Bosh, saying he would join Tracy McGrady and Vince Carter on the list of Toronto’s former franchise players after the 2009-10 season.

There have been rumors since before the trade deadline this spring that there are nearly a dozen teams interested in the young superstar, but this specific trade brings one rumored exchange into focus.

The Chicago Bulls are looking at losing guard Ben Gordon either in free agency or, more likely, in a sign-and-trade deal this summer.

Gordon’s name was linked to rumors about Bosh before last season, and his playoff performances against the Boston Celtics certainly raised his profile as an elite scorer in the league.

So is this move a precursor to a bigger deal with Toronto?  Logically it makes sense for both teams, working under the assumption that Bosh will be fleeing Toronto the second the 2010 summer hits.  The report further speculates on who the Bulls might send in a package for Bosh:

The Bulls have a lot of options that might look good to Toronto. They have two first round draft picks in this summer’s NBA draft and have a couple of young bigs in Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas that might be part of a package with a signed-and-traded Gordon.

The trade that would make the most sense in my mind would be Tyrus, Gordon and the #16 pick for Bosh.  That would leave us with a starting lineup of Rose, Salmons/Kirk, Deng, Bosh and Noah with Miller and Salmons/Kirk coming off the bench.  I know some of you would rather see Noah go and keep Tyrus, but I think it would be important to keep Bosh at his natural position of PF.  If Noah were gone, he would have to start at the 5 with TT at the 4.

Wait wait wait!  Don’t pinch me yet…..okay now I’m ready to wake up.  It was a nice dream though, wasn’t it?

Word is, though, the Bulls would feel much better about acquiring Bosh than they would Amare Stoudemire, another defensively-challenged forward that might be on the market. The biggest reason is Bosh’s personality. He sort of fits the mold of a Georgia Tech engineering student, serious and studious. The belief is Bosh would make a good teammate, while general managers aren’t quite sold on Stoudemire in that regard.

So if Bosh becomes trade bait this summer, the Bulls are sure to get involved. This is one reason why the Bulls should step up and re-sign Ben Gordon, so they’ll have spare parts to put in any potential deal. Tyrus Thomas and a player of Toronto’s choosing, not Rose or Joakim Noah, figures to be the offer, though the possibilities are endless.

Obviously there would be a lot of competition for Bosh’s services.  I also believe that Bosh would be a better fit for the Bulls, but to be honest I wouldn’t mind either one.  Pair either of those guys up with Rose and that is a perennial playoff team in the East.

Also, maybe keeping Gordon around on a qualifying deal this year will pay off.  If we can use him in a sign-and-trade, then I’m all for it.  Pax loves those ‘character’ guys.