11:00 am (8) Minnesota vs. (9) Northwestern

The teams split games during the regular season, with each winning at home.  The most recent game was a 72-45 drubbing in favor of the Golden Gophers.  The key for Minnesota will be to use their size advantage inside, while making someone other than Koble and Moore beat them.  For the Wildcats, that means a lot will be riding on point guard Michael Thompson.  In wins for Northwestern he has been great, but if he doesn’t show up today, the Wildcats probably won’t win.  It’s hard to talk about Minnesota without talking about Lawrence Westbrook.  The star guard scored 17 against Northwestern last time they met.  Minnesota is on the bubble, while Northwestern needs to reach the finals to have a shot at the tournament. The winner will play Michigan State Friday.

1:30 pm (7) Michigan vs. (10) Iowa

Another split series in the 7-10 game as the Wolverines and Hawkeyes both won their home games against one another.  Michigan is coming off a giant win at Minnesota and can ensure themselves a spot in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 10 years with a win.  Iowa’s season was marred by injury and disappointment, but the Hawkeyes have a star back in Cyrus Tate, while sophomore guard Jake Kelly has carried the team in his absence.  The Hawks will need to look to big men Jarryd Cole and Tate to make an impact on both ends.  For the Wolverines, they’ll need a better performance from their own sophomore Manny Harris, as the 1st Team All Big Ten player had one of his worst games of the season the last time the teams met.  Michigan has a chance to get in the tournament even if they lose, but things will be a lot calmer in Ann Arbor is they win.  The winner takes on Illinois Friday.

4:00 pm (6) Penn State vs. (11) Indiana

Penn State has experienced plummet in their seeding propsects in the last week or so.  Going into Saturday, the Nittany Lions had the opportunity to secure the two seed in this tournament, but with a loss to Iowa and the way the other results came they are now playing in the 6-11 game instead of waiting to play the winner of the 7-10 game.  This game would seem like a yawner at first glance, but the match-ups have been pretty close this year, including a 61-58 win for Penn State at home.  For Penn State, they just have to limit the turnovers, hit open shots, and do the due diligence on the glass to win.  Indiana, well, they need to stop Penn State from doing that stuff that clear favorites want to do.  In terms of the bubble, Penn State absolutely has to win.  Their awful out of conference resume has fooled some of the experts, but it won’t get past the committee.  They have good wins in the Big Ten, but the best team they beat outside the conference was Georgia Tech, who won about a half game in the ACC this year.  The winner gets Purdue.

A conference that is this close makes for a very exciting post-season tournament.  The action starts Thursday when Minnesota plays Northwestern at 11 AM central time, followed immediately by Michigan against Iowa, and the day will finish with Penn State against Indiana.

The first batch of games should be plenty interesting as Minnesota and Northwestern split their contests this season.  Minnesota is squarely on the bubble, while Northwestern likely needs to at least make the finals and maybe win the tournament to get in.  Michigan and Iowa also split this season and the second game was an overtime win for the Hawkeyes.  Michigan did a lot for their tourney chances Saturday, winning a huge game at Minnesota, but the Wolverines would feel a lot safer with a win Thursday. Finally, the Hoosiers will try to upset Penn State, who they almost beat last week in Happy Valley.

The rest of the field will have Thursday off and start up on Friday.  The only Friday game that is set will be Ohio State against Wisconsin.  The Badgers won the only meeting of the two teams by five points in Madison.  Both teams are pretty safe tournament-wise, but another win could help avoid some anxious moments on Sunday.  The top three seeds are Michigan State, Illinois, and Purdue.  The Spartans will play the winner of the Minnesota-Northwestern game, Illinois gets Michigan or Iowa, and Purdue will play Penn State or Indiana.

The way Michigan State made it through the regular season, they are the obvious favorites.  However, the Spartans also showed that they have no problems losing to whomever they choose, with bad ones to Penn State and Northwestern at home.  I’ll have some detailed previews with bad predictions coming later this week, so check back for those.  Meanwhile, here is the bracket to stare at while you watch the 24 and 25 seeds in the Big East Tournament early in the week.

In: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois

The Spartans clinched at least a share of the Big Ten Championship Sunday, beating Illinois.  With a trip to the finals of the conference tournament the Spartans will likely lock up a two seed in the field of 64.  Purdue and Illinois have been impressive all year, hovering in the top 25 for most of the time.  Both suffered big losses this week (at Michigan for Purdue and against MSU for Illinois) that will knock them down a peg or two when it comes to seeding.  If you don’t think the last week and the conference tourney is important for these two, the difference between a 3 seed and a 4 or 5 could mean the difference between playing UNC or Kansas to start the second weekend.

Out: Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern

Northwestern had a chance to sneak into the bubble talk, but a stretch where the Wildcats lost 4 of 5 probably doomed them.  With games at Purdue and Ohio State left, it doesn’t look good.  NU fans should be proud of this group though, they played hard all the time and were actually pretty fun to watch.

On the Bubble: Ohio State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn State

Most think the Big Ten ends up with 6 or 7 spots in the tourney, meaning that one or two of these teams will be playing in the NIT.  Ohio State is the safest this bunch I think, with season sweeps against Michigan and Penn State.  They played a respectable out of conference slate and finish out with easier games against Iowa and Northwestern.  Wisconsin is also pretty safe after a big win against Michigan Sunday.  The Badgers played the toughest schedule of the bubble teams, have the best RPI, and are 9-7 in the conference.  Wisconsin plays at Minnesota and finishes with Indiana at home.

Minnesota, Penn State, and Michigan are the interesting ones here.  Penn State saw their touney dreams flash before their eyes on Saturday as they barely escaped with a win at home against Indiana.  The Nittany Lions have 20 wins, but played an embarrassing non-conference schedule including such tournament bound teams as…well, no one.  Lunardi has PSU as one of the last four teams in the tournament right now, but they might need to win out to stay in with the winner of the Michigan-Minnesota game this weekend likely getting a big boost.

Minnesota and Michigan play on Saturday and the winner has a very good chance of making the Big Dance.  Both teams have very impressive non-conference wins; Louisville for Minnesota and Duke and UCLA for Michigan.  I’d say Michigan has to win at Minnesota and their first round game in the Big Ten Tournament to get in, while Minnesota has to split their home games against Wisconsin and Michigan this week and win one tourney game as well.

Big games to watch:

• Ohio State at Iowa, Tue. 8:05 PM (BTN)
• Wisconsin at Minnesota, Wed. 7:30 PM (BTN)
• Illinois at Penn State, Thu. 8:00 PM (ESPN)
• Michigan at Minnesota, Sat. 11:00 AM (ESPN)
• Penn State at Iowa, Sat. 1:05 PM (BTN)
• Purdue at Michigan State, Sun. 11:00 AM (CBS)
• Indiana at Wisconsin, Sun. 6:00 PM (BTN)