This exercise was not simple.  The first issue is determining what the salary cap will be.  Rumors have it ranging from $49 million all the way to $58 million.  For this post, we will be assuming it is $53 million.  Also, there are many player options, team options, conditional contracts, draft picks and other variables that must be considered.  The initial salary number next to each team is based on an educated guess about what teams will do with options and draft picks.  The last thing to keep in mind is that any of these players may re-sign with the team they are currently on and go over the cap due to the Larry Bird Exception.  That puts Toronto in the running for Bosh, Cleveland for James, Phoenix for Stoudemire, and so on.  I used HoopsHype for all the salary information, but be careful if you click that link, its extremely addictive.  Anyways, here we go.

TEAMS WITH ENOUGH SPACE TO SIGN AT LEAST ONE MAX CONTRACT

MIAMI HEAT
2010-2011 Salary: $7.13 Million
Estimated Cap Space: $45.87 Million

The Miami Heat literally only have 2 players on the books for next season, Beasley and Daequan Cook.  Presumably they will pick up Chalmers $847,000 option, bringing them up to about $8 million.  Wade has a $17.15 million option, but that will be a non-issue since the Heat would have to cough up more than that to match the max offers he is likely to get.  If you allow for the Heat to fill out their roster with scrubs that will still leave them about $40 million in space under the cap, enough to comfortably offer Wade and another big name max contracts.

NEW YORK KNICKS
2010-2011 Salary: $18.64 Million
Estimated Cap Space:$34.36 Million

Ahhh the Knicks.  Somehow they managed to swing a miracle before the deadline and land McGrady’s gigantic expiring contract.  Hilariously enough, the only really bad contract they have left from the Isiah era is Eddy Curry’s $11 million.  With Gallinari, Curry, Wilson Chandler, and Toney Douglas, the Knicks don’t exactly have the pieces to help a star win a championship.  On the other hand, with the money they have available, they may be able to sign two max contracts.  It would push them over the cap a bit, but they haven’t been shy about doing that before.  It’s also New York and the Garden and the lights and the media, so that could be a huge draw for guys like LeBron.

NEW JERSEY NETS
2010-2011 Salary: $31 Million
Estimated Cap Space: $22 Million

Okay, I made up that $31 million number.  The truth is that its more like $26 million, but everyone knows that the Nets will probably have a top 3 draft pick, putting them on the hook for another 4.5-5 million.  The question is: Does anyone want to play for the Nets?  At first glance the answer is no, seeing as how they are just awful this season.  But if you look a little closer the fact is that they have two very good young players in Devin Harris and Brook Lopez.  There are really only 7 teams with space for max contracts (9 spots if you think the Knicks and Heat each get two, though that is unlikely).  There is a possibility that one of the guys that doesn’t go to New York, Chicago or Miami may want to get rich playing in New Jersey.

CHICAGO BULLS
2010-2011 Salary: $31.86 Million
Estimated Cap Space: $21.14 Million

The Bulls have the best core out of all the teams with legitimate space to sign a max contract.  Rose, Hinrich, Deng, Gibson and Noah.  That’s one all-star/rising superstar in Rose, two borderline all-stars in Noah and Deng, and two very good role players in Kirk and Taj.  Even after draft picks (the Bulls own and the one they may be getting from Charlotte), they still have about $20 million to spend.  Chicago, Miami, and New York are the frontrunners for a big name free agent, but Chicago has by far the best young core to place around him.

WASHINGTON WIZARDS
2010-2011 Salary: $34 Million
Estimated Cap Space: $19 Million

You have to assume two things here, though anything can change.  First, that the Wiz will decline Josh Howard’s $11 million team option, and second, that they will pick up Randy Foye’s $4.75 Million option.  So the Wizards have enough space to just barely offer a max contract.  The same thing I said about the Nets applies here, the only difference is that the Wizards don’t have any talent.  At all.  Like the Nets someone might want to come to the Wizards and get rich toiling for a terrible team, but it definitely won’t be LeBron or Wade.

THE REST (Teams that are cutting it close in cap space)

Sacramento Kings
2010-2011 Salary: $34 Million
Estimated Cap Space: $19 Million

L.A. Clippers
2010-2011 Salary: $35 Million
Estimated Cap Space: $18 Million

Minnesota Timberwolves
2010-2011 Salary: $35.17 Million
Estimated Cap Space: $17.83 Million

THE FREE AGENTS AND THEIR LIKELY DESTINATIONS

LeBron James: Will he stay in Cleveland?  If he can win with Antawn Jamison right now, it seems plausible that he will stay.  On the other hand you never know.  The allure of New York may draw him, especially if he can bring his buddy D-Wade with him.  That possibility exists now that the Knicks cleared the space.  The only other real contender for James is Chicago purely because of the talent they can put around him, although their chances are slim at best.

Dwyane Wade: Miami can keep Wade and sign another big name, if another big name will come there.  James and Wade in Miami?  It could happen.  The main other target for Wade is Chicago.  It’s his hometown and he has always liked Rose (rumor has it he lobbied Riley to try to trade up to get Rose in the 2008 draft).  While the Heat do have a ton of cap space, they also have no talent to put around him.  The only way they keep Wade is if they get another big free agent to play alongside him.  Otherwise, he’ll be in Chicago or New York by the end of the summer.

Chris Bosh: Don’t tell Raptors fans, but its possible Bosh could leave Canada.  It appears he does like the city, but they are in no position to really shake the team up at all.  Is he content to toil away in obscurity for a .500 team and hope the youth improves around him?  Maybe, but he might also be looking to sell some jerseys and win some championships.  Chicago, New York, and Miami are all options, although he may consider going to one of the other teams with space, since he has expressed his interest in being “The Man”, which wouldn’t go well with him on a team with James or Wade.

Kobe Bryant: Los Angeles.  Not only are they the best team in the league, but he would probably have to take a pay cut if he exercised his early termination clause.

Dirk Nowitzki: Dallas.  There is no reason to think he would leave.  He loves Dallas and they love him.  He will definitely exercise his player option unless something crazy happens.

Joe Johnson: Everyone is talking about how this guy will be leaving, but my question is why?  He is on a great young team in Atlanta that is getting better every year.  He is the alpha dog on that team, and he is living and playing in a great city.  On the other hand, the allure of Chicago or New York or playing with James, Wade, or Bosh may draw him out.  Although James/Wade/Bosh are the most talked about names, don’t let JJ slip under your radar.  He is a very versatile big guard that can do it all.

Carlos Boozer: Who knows where he will go.  He seems like the kind of guy that would take max money to go waste away in Washington or New Jersey, doesn’t he?  After he screwed Cleveland a few years back, its hard to think that he cares about anything beyond the money.  That being said, he may be the “other” guy that Miami or New York is looking for after signing Wade or James.

Amare Stoudemire: I can tell you where he probably won’t be: Phoenix.  They have spurned him so many times its ridiculous.  Steve Kerr clearly doesn’t want him.  Could he go to Chicago?  Maybe.  New York? Miami? Maybe.  There’s no way to tell how it will shake down, but if teams can get past his defensive liabilities, he will be a high-profile target.

Paul Pierce: Boston.  He won’t leave.  Now that he has a ring there, Rondo is an all-star, and Garnett is signed through 2050 (just kidding, 2012), he’ll stick it out with this crew and try to win another ring.

OTHER NON-MAX CONTRACT NOTABLE FREE AGENTS:

Marcus Camby, Manu Ginobili, Ray Allen, Brendan Haywood, Kenyon Martin, Tyson Chandler.

A source confirmed the Bulls have had discussions with the Lakers about Hinrich, most likely for Adam Morrison and Sasha Vujacic, but nothing is imminent.

As well as Kirk is playing (and its well, the Bulls look like a better team with him on the court), we can’t lose sight if the real goal: getting as much cap flexibility as possible for the summer.  Vujacic, though a douche, can be a very helpful 3 point shooter, and Morrison’s 5 million dollar expiring contract will give us even more flexibility this summer.  If the Lakers are interested, the Bulls should go for it.

It’s possible the Bulls could resurrect the potential deal sending Salmons, Brad Miller and Jerome James to Houston for Tracy McGrady and filler before the deadline.

I discussed this earlier.  This scenario is only slightly different with Salmons instead of Hinrich.  Since Salmons is essentially signed through 2011 ($7 million player option), it would free up space and give us an interesting 3 months watching Rose and T-Mac.

By trading either guard before the deadline, the Bulls could have around $20 million to spend on free agents this summer and wouldn’t have to sweat Salmons’ decision of whether or not to opt out of his contract.

The Bulls’ dream scenario is to sign Dwyane Wade or Atlanta’s Joe Johnson this summer and also trade for an elite power forward. In theory, the team would become an instant title contender.

If they can move either Salmons, Kirk or Deng for expiring contracts, they have to do it.  Even if they are unable to sign any of the big names being thrown around, it won’t hurt them long-term to move Kirk and Salmons.  Deng’s contract is also a bad one (he’s not bad, but not worth $11 million a year for the next 100 years).

There are reports that Phoenix is again shopping all-star center Amare Stoudemire, who has the option of becoming a free agent. The Bulls’ interest is mild, though there has been talk between the teams.

The Suns are listening to offers because they’re not sold on the idea of giving Stoudemire a long-term contract near the maximum salary. Neither are the Bulls, so it makes little sense to give up assets now for a player who might not stick around beyond the end of this season.

In the same scenario last year, Phoenix was interested in a package of Tyrus Thomas and Thabo Sefolosha for Stoudemire but also wanted multiple first-round picks, according to a league source, and the Bulls passed.

Would the Bulls take a chance on Stoudemire if the Suns were willing to take Deng, a higher-salaried player in return? Still doubtful, since no one knows what kind of money it would take to keep Stoudemire around.

We’ve covered this Amare rumor ad nauseum.  I have my reservations about his defense and his attitude, but in general…wait, what?  The Suns were willing to take Tyrus Thomas, Thabo and picks for Amare?  That can’t be true.  Because no sane person would have hung onto Tyrus and some first-round picks over Amare.  If we had Amare we wouldn’t have lottery picks every year anymore anyways!  Another blown blockbuster because Paxson is afraid to pull the trigger.

For now, it appears that Toronto’s Chris Bosh and Utah’s Carlos Boozer will not be traded before the deadline. That could change, since both power forwards are likely to change teams as free agents this summer.

We’ll see, we’ll see.  This doesn’t bother me one bit.  I’m in no rush to make a big move by the deadline, as long as they end up having a big summer.  So there you have it, McGraw basically covered all the bases.  The general idea for this trading season is simple: 1) Noah and Rose are all but untouchable; 2) Anyone else is fair game, but not for any contracts that go beyond this summer; and 3) Clear space!

To address those who say its a sad situation that the Bulls are literally throwing this season away, I say to you that they are not.  The last 4 games have proven that if nothing else, this team can be very fun to watch right now.  They are out there trying to win with what they have, and in spite of Vinny’s ineptitude, they are 22-22 and tied for the 7th seed in the East.  That Derrick Rose kool-aid is unbelievable…try some.

Word is, though, the Bulls would feel much better about acquiring Bosh than they would Amare Stoudemire, another defensively-challenged forward that might be on the market. The biggest reason is Bosh’s personality. He sort of fits the mold of a Georgia Tech engineering student, serious and studious. The belief is Bosh would make a good teammate, while general managers aren’t quite sold on Stoudemire in that regard.

So if Bosh becomes trade bait this summer, the Bulls are sure to get involved. This is one reason why the Bulls should step up and re-sign Ben Gordon, so they’ll have spare parts to put in any potential deal. Tyrus Thomas and a player of Toronto’s choosing, not Rose or Joakim Noah, figures to be the offer, though the possibilities are endless.

Obviously there would be a lot of competition for Bosh’s services.  I also believe that Bosh would be a better fit for the Bulls, but to be honest I wouldn’t mind either one.  Pair either of those guys up with Rose and that is a perennial playoff team in the East.

Also, maybe keeping Gordon around on a qualifying deal this year will pay off.  If we can use him in a sign-and-trade, then I’m all for it.  Pax loves those ‘character’ guys.

Gooden, Nocioni, Simmons for Miller and Salmons: A-

I already broke this trade down in an earlier post.  I will summarize what I said there briefly.  In terms of talent it was a very good deal for the Bulls.  Acquiring Miller was a significant upgrade over Gooden and Salmons was a huge upgrade over Nocioni.  Miller will hopefully complement Rose well for the next year and a half and be a decent defender in the paint, which is what we have been needing as much or more than post scoring.  Also, Salmons looks to have enormous upside.  Getting rid of Noce is addition by subtraction, since he was a liability on defense and very trigger happy.  In terms of salary, it was an excellent move.  Nocioni’s long-term contract is gone and is replaced by Miller’s $112 million dollar deal that expires in 2010 and Salmons who is making $5.5 (or $7.5?) million through 2011.

Hughes for Jerome James and Tim Thomas (and Roberson?): B

This trade really has very little impact in terms of on-court improvement.  Hughes was already getting DNP-CDs every night and Jerome James isn’t going to play.  Tim Thomas has been a Bull before, though only briefly before Skiles sent him home and the Bulls released him.  This time around he may get a few minutes here or there at the 3/4, but probably won’t have any real effect.  Salary-wise this move does one thing.  It takes Hughes $12 million dollar 2010 expiring contract and breaks it up into two, far more movable, $6 million dollar deals.

Also my understanding of a medical retirement in the NBA is that if James does not play for one year, the Bulls can put him on medical retirement and as long as he doesn’t play the rest of his contract, his salary would not count against the Bulls 2009-2010 cap.  Its possible that James will never play again, so this move has the potential of freeing up some of that $12 million as early as 2009 season.  (UPDATE: This cannot happen based on the current CBA.  Oh well. The Bulls will only have to pay about $1.5 million to him next year, but the full $6.6 million will count against the cap).

Sefolosha for OKC’s First Round Pick (The lesser pick of the Nuggets or San Antonio’s pick that OKC acquired via trade): C+

Yeah Thabo would be buried on the bench now with Salmons, but I still believe he will become a very good player in the league.  It looks like this move was done because the Knicks deal put the Bulls slightly over the cap for this year and Pax needed to shed some salary to avoid the tax.  The loss of Thabo is unfortunate and I have very little sympathy for Reinsdorf having to pay a little tax this year.

Inability to Land Stoudemire/Bosh/Camby/Boozer And Non-Trade of Kirk: B

Once again Pax didn’t get the big deal done that would make the Bulls a legitimate contender.  We can only speculate over whether a big offer was possible or even on the table.  Amare was being shopped, but Phoenix clearly took him off the table in the last few days.  Bosh was only coming here in a deal involving Amare, so that went out the window when Amare came off the table.  Camby is too old and hurt.  I also don’t think the Boozer deal was ever offered.

Also, why didn’t the Bulls move Hinrich’s contract?  Pax claims they had an offer but they feel they can get more in the summer.  Whether that’s true or not, the Salmons acquisition leaves Kirk with less minutes and now he knows he’s being dangled as trade bait all season.  Hopefully this works out but it seems very odd.

Cap Management: B+

The moves give us little to no cap room this summer, but position the Bulls to make a big move in the summer of 2010.  With Bosh, James, Wade, Anthony and Stoudemire all becoming free agents, the Bulls will have a ton of cap space.  If they pick up Noah and Rose’s options, they have only about $35 million committed in 2010/2011, leaving almost an estimated $30 million to offer to one of those free agents.  Another option is that the Bulls will have a combination of $30 million dollars of expiring contracts to trade this summer and during the 2009/2010 season to another team trying to clear space for a free agent in the 2010 summer.  Also dividing Hughes contract into two smaller contracts may make them easier to move.  Perhaps all the expiring deals could be used to pry a star away in a trade from one of those teams.

Overall Deadline Grade For Paxson: B+

He made all good moves but once again failed to bring in something for fans to get excited about and that would make the Bulls a contender.  At least he did something this time I guess.