Pick Your Poison: Theriot or Fukudome
Last season SS Ryan Theriot and RF Kosuke Fukudome split time at the leadoff spot after it became undeniably obvious that Alfonso Soriano was a disaster. This season the two head into the 2010 season as the two candidates to lead off once again.
Popular opinion seems to be on Theriot’s side and ESPN’s Tyler Colvin story’s comment thread proved this much. It seems people stopped short of death threats while condemning Fukudome and his excessive contract, but that might only be because the section is probably monitored.
The numbers seem to be on Fukudome’s side. According to the situation stats, Fukudome hit .316 leading off the inning and posted a .401 OBP. In contrast, Theriot hit .257 and sported a meager .317 OBP. Fukudome simply seems to guarantee a better start to each game than Theriot. The Catch-22 is that in any other situation he is unlikely to actually hit a player in. His paltry .256 batting average with runners in scoring position is evidence of that and his even more dreadful .132 average with runners in scoring position and two outs is just bitter, spoiled icing on top.
Meanwhile, Theriot hits .284 with runners in scoring position, though he is less likely to draw a walk and give the next guy a chance. Theriot also seems to thrive hitting with two outs and runners in scoring position. He hit .314 and even posted a decent .351 when the pressure was on.
After looking at these numbers I would argue that the best way to hide Fukudome and keep Theriot in the fans good graces is to actually have Fukudome as the lead off hitter as insanely silly as that sounds. His walk numbers would make him a good number two hitter, but Theriot’s own troubles leading off the inning make me wonder if he is even a good lead off prospect. I imagine that much of the love for Theriot is because of memories of fans with Chicago Cubs tickets watching as he drove in the winning run, which is exactly not the position he is in as the leadoff hitter.
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