The 2009-2010 Derrick Rose Conundrum, A Shot Selection Story
The situation with Derrick Rose this season has been confusing for fans, teammates, and even coaches. The common belief for his struggles compared to last season’s success have been some combination of battling injury and a poor jump shot. But is that really what’s going on? The last week or so I’ve been trying to figure out what’s wrong. I decided to use Hotspots to take a look at Rose’s shooting, and I found some very interesting things.
2008-2009 Season:
Percentage of Shots Taken Close to Basket: 51.4%
56.3% made
Percentage of Shots Taken Away from Basket: 48.6%
39.3% made
2009-2010 Season:
Percentage of Shots Taken Close to Basket: 32%
53.7% made
Percentage of Shots Taken Away from Basket: 68%
41.2% made
There are two things that jump out at me from these stats. The first is shot selection. Last season Rose took over 50% of his shots from right near the basket. This season? Only 32% of his shots have come from point blank range. That is a huge dropoff. The stats can’t give the reason behind that, be it injury or just a general lack of aggressiveness and confidence, but I don’t think anyone realized how much more Rose was relying on his jumper this season.
The other crazy thing about these numbers is that they completely contradict the common belief that Rose’s jumper has not improved or even that it has regressed. In fact, he is hitting over 41% of his shots from outside a few feet this season, as opposed to around 39% last season.
So what does this all mean? Well it doesn’t tell us why he is being less aggressive and settling on jumpers more, but it does show that the accuracy of his jump shot isn’t the problem (its not great, but its not the problem). As much as I love Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith, they are incorrect in saying, “this kid just needs to figure out his jump shot”. In fact, he needs to stop shooting it and get to the basket more.
One quick sidenote: The rest of the Bulls aren’t exactly taking high percentage shots either. If you want to get really numbers with the numbers about the entire team’s poor shot selection, you can look here (via Hardwood Paroxysm].
Related Posts:
Comments
Comment from Mr. Big Shot
Time November 23, 2009 at 1:02 pm
Interesting analysis. A quick follow up state that I found interesting is that Rose is averaging exactly the same # of free throws per game as last season, 3.1 per game. Wouldn’t this number be lower if in fact he was settling more for outside shots? Chris Paul’s free throw attempts per game increased from 4.9 in his first year to 6.7 in his second. Elite players get to the line frequently.
Pingback from November 23, 2009: NFL Week 11; Les Miles Boner; Jennifer Lopez Spill | FanSided
Time November 23, 2009 at 1:38 pm
[...] The Derrick Rose Conundrum [...]
Comment from Vic De Zen
Time November 23, 2009 at 2:04 pm
Well done. He’s playing hurt, though, so I can’t get too mad at him. I think he’ll get more aggressive as the season goes on.
Pingback from Why Derrick Rose Is Shooting More This Season | MOUTHPIECE Blog // A Chicago-Addled Sports Blog
Time November 23, 2009 at 4:52 pm
[...] no secret Derrick Rose has struggled out the gate this season. And as Not Qualifed to Comment points out, part of it has to do with the fact he’s taking more jump shots this [...]
Comment from Rule 5 Draftee
Time November 23, 2009 at 5:14 pm
Great post. Excellent analysis. This is good stuff.
Pingback from The 10-man rotation, starring Lewis, Ray, PEDs and playoffs | Sports News Images and Videos
Time November 23, 2009 at 7:10 pm
[...] play more.SG: Philadelphia Daily News. When was the last time you were at a Sixers game, Philly?PG: NQTC. Some statistical analysis of Derrick Rose’s(notes) shot selection.6th: KevinDurant35.com. [...]
Pingback from Sports on the Web | Gunaxin
Time November 23, 2009 at 10:14 pm
[...] And Derrick Rose’s problem is shot selection [Not Qualified to Comment] [...]
Comment from docksquad
Time November 24, 2009 at 5:35 pm
dope post man. i think all of us who have been watching him this year know that he is finally getting his explosiveness back. i first saw it in the lakers game, and last night after he dunked on oden. and even though we aren’t winning, i think he is turning it around offensively on this circus trip, which will pay dividends for us once we get back home. go drose! go bulls!
Comment from Kyle
Time November 26, 2009 at 11:44 pm
Well, not all elite players get to the line a lot. Stockton, Nash, and guys who people for some reason still think are elite like Garnett rarely get to the line. Paul Pierce gets to the line almost 3 more times than Bird did for his career.
Free throws are usually determined by the officials, if the game is rigged, and not everyone gets to phantom foul calls like Wade and LeBron.
Loading ...
Comment from The Guitar God
Time November 23, 2009 at 10:05 am
Rose just needs to get in the paint more often. C’mon guy, get aggressive.