The People Have Spoken: Cutler is The Best Player in The NFL

August 19, 2009 at 12:00 pm | Chicago Bears
By: Stormin' Norman Disciple

504x_custom_1247574942783_Picture_82Jay Cutler may not be the most popular guy in Denver right now, but his arrival in Chicago has clearly vaulted him to the upper echelons of NFL popularity.  According to Jay Cutler Superstar, Cutler jerseys are the #1 selling jersey in the NFL right now:

Jay Cutler is already leading the league in one category: jerseys sold. Cutler jerseys sold more than any other NFL player’s from April 1 through August 7. Bears had 2 other players in the top 25 with Brian Urlacher at 19 and Devin Hester at 20.

The people have spoken.  Jersey sales are obviously the best reflection of public sentiment about a player.  This meanss that the general NFL-consuming public believes Cutler is the best player in the NFL, and Joe Flacco is strangely in the top 25 also.  Oh well, I’m not asking any questions that I don’t want to hear the answer to.

In all seriousness though, Cutler may actually be one of the great quarterbacks of all-time, at least if he keeps up what he’s done so far.  Windy City Gridiron recently broke down the NFL’s top 10 passers of all-time and tried to see how Cutler fit in (yeah he fits in).  Here are the numbers of the top 10 in categories that can be broken down into a percentage, since Cutler doesn’t have that many years in the league yet:

1. Brett Favre | 65,127 | COMP% = 61.6 | TD% = 5.0 | INT% = 3.3 | QB RATING = 85.4
2. Dan Marino | 61,361 | COMP% = 59.4 | TD% = 5.0 | INT% = 3.0 | QB RATING = 86.4
3. John Elway | 51,475 | COMP% = 56.9| TD% = 4.1 | INT% = 3.1 | QB RATING = 79.9
4. Warren Moon | 49,325 | COMP% = 58.4 | TD% = 4.3 | INT% = 3.4 | QB RATING = 80.9
5. Fran Tarkenton | 47,003 | COMP% = 57.0 | TD% = 5.3 | INT% = 4.1 | QB RATING = 80.4
6. Vinny Testaverde | 46,223 | COMP% = 56.5 | TD% = 4.1 | INT% = 4.0 | QB RATING = 75.0
7. Peyton Manning | 45,628 | COMP% = 64.4 | TD% = 5.6 | INT% = 2.8 | QB RATING = 94.7
8. Drew Bledsoe | 44,611 | COMP% = 57.2 | TD% = 3.7 | INT% = 3.1 | QB RATING = 77.1
9. Dan Fouts | 43,040 | COMP% = 58.8 | TD% = 4.5 | INT% = 4.3 | QB RATING = 80.2
10. Joe Montana | 40,551 | COMP% = 63.2 | TD% = 5.1 | INT% = 2.6 | QB RATING = 92.3

Now WCG then finds the average of each of those statistics for the top 10, and compares it to Cutler’s numbers over his first few years in the league.  Take a look:

Top 10 Avg: COMP% = 59.3 | TD% = 4.6 | INT% = 3.4 | QB RATING = 83.2

Jay Cutler | COMP% = 62.5 | TD% = 4.4 | INT% = 3.0 | QB RATING = 87.1

Those numbers are pretty convincing.  I mean the obvious hole in the argument is that those guys did it for years, whereas Cutler has only done it for a few.  I know these are all just numbers and what matters is whether he wins and if he can sustain his production, but this isn’t bad news.  What strikes me as odd is that some of his detractors out there are quick to point to numbers as evidence of Cutler’s shortcomings, but I am having a difficult time seeing how the numbers reflect badly on him, when they are putting him in the top 10 quarterbacks of all-time.

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Comments

Comment from docksquad
Time August 19, 2009 at 7:08 pm

dope post. go cutler!

Comment from Ketch Rudder
Time August 20, 2009 at 9:38 pm

This greatest QB list is a joke.

The derivative formula of QB rating tells you nothing about how well a QB has played and how much he has contributed to wins as well as losses.

At a minimum, you must at least look at the TDs to Picks ratio with a minimum of attempts.

Better is to look at the double ratio of TDs + 1st Downs thrown to attempts in wins over INTs + incompletes to attempts in losses. For TDS, include both passing and running TDs. For attempts in wins, count passes and runs.

Here’s your true Top 10 of all-time. These players contributed most to their team wins and contributed least to their team losses:

Steve Young
Sonny Jurgensen
Kurt Warner
Peyton Manning
Joe Montana
Drew Brees
Bob Griese
John Brodie
Brett Favre
Dave Krieg

Note: This list arises from regular season data only.

Of course, everyone knows that Joe Montana gets the highest accolades for post-season (playoffs + Super Bowl) play, and deservedly so.

Comment from Stormin’ Norman Disciple
Time August 23, 2009 at 9:02 am

It’s an interesting metric, but why is it a better indicator than passer rating? Is there proof that this statistical analysis is better correlated to how a quarterback contributes to his team? Because the guys on my list had the same or better careers in terms of wins?

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