Why Bad Statistics About The Cubs Offense May Actually Be Good Statistics
Everyone knows the Cubs offense has been mostly dormant this season. Although bullpen problems have been a big issue, the Cubs need to be able to score runs to even put the bullpen in a position to blow the game. What has seemingly ailed the Cubs much of the season is something Bob Brenly likes to call “timely hitting”. As most intelligent baseball fans know, “timely hitting” isn’t really anything in terms of a player’s value to his team personally. It only means that if a player who hits .300 gets lucky and the people around him are on base coincidentally when he gets those hits 30% of the time, then he is called a good “timely hitter”. The Friendly Blogfines took a look at the stats on the Cubs “timely hitting” and they will initially appall you:
- In Wednesday game against Detroit the Cubs were just 1 for 15 (.067) with runners in scoring position (and that one hit still didn’t produce a run), but were 10 for 20 (.500) when there were no runners in scoring position.
- On the current road trip the Cubs are a total of 1 for 29 (.034) with runners in scoring position but are 27 for 73 (.370) with no runners in scoring position.
- The Cubs are currently hitting .223 as a team with runners in scoring position, dead last in all of baseball.
- The Current .223 mark is worse than any team has hit with runners in scoring position during a season in the past 5 years.
- The Cubs have 3 of the worst hitters with RISP of all regulars in the big leagues, Geovany Soto at .204, Mike Fontenot at .205 and Alfonso Soriano at .157
- Only one Cub (Kosuke Fukudome) has hit higher than .264 with runners in scoring position. And only 2 qualifying players are higher than .242 (Fukudome and Theriot).
- In the month of June the Cubs are hitting just .205 with runners in scoring position.
- The Cubs are hitting .207 so far this year on the road with runners in scoring position.
- This season the Cubs are hitting .259 with no outs, .237 with 1 out and .217 with 2 outs.
- Cubs are hitting .147 on the season with runners on 2nd and 3rd.
- The Cubs have hit 47 solo Home Runs, only 24 with runners on base and only 11 with RISP.
Yeah those numbers look bad, but I’m here to tell you they are a good thing. I mean of course they aren’t a good thing looking back, but looking forward, if the Cubs can keep up their good all-around hitting, statistically the low average with runners in scoring position will even out. It has been mostly proven by sabremetricians that batting average with runners in scoring position is an illusory stat, and if you give a ballplayer enough at-bats in those situations, they will eventually hit their normal average. For instance, if the Cubs are hitting .247 overall as a team this year (which they are), given the course of the whole season, statistics have shown with studies of every other team in baseball history (with a few notable exceptions, of course), that the Cubs will likely hit .247 with runners in scoring position over the course of the season.
So fear not, Cubs fans. If the Cubbies continue to hit well like they have been doing the last few weeks, eventually those hits will come with runners in scoring position. Just to ensure everyone is making the connection, yes this is all a part of my belief that clutch hitting does not exist. Although if it did exist, which it doesn’t, Aramis Ramirez coming back will definitely give the Cubbies a boost in that department. The department of clutch-hitting that doesn’t exist I mean.
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