I have been saying this for years and most people have finally come around on it: a walk is as valuable as a single in the lion’s share of situations.  In terms of pitchers, I think most would agree with that, based on sportswriters and journalists talking about how walks kill pitchers.  But how come on the offensive side of the ball, a walk isn’t shown the same respect as a hit?  One extreme mentality, used in explaining why Dominican players have such poor plate discipline, is the motto “you can’t walk off the island to the bigs, you have to hit your way there”.  Well perhaps its time ballplayers and fans alike rethink the value of a walk when it comes to hitting.  Bill James and Joe Posnaski released some recent information about the walk that surprised even me:

This year teams that walk zero or one time win about one third of their games. If they walk two to three times it jumps up to about 45 percent. If they walk four or five times they win about 57 percent of the time. And if they walk six times or more their winning percentage is .646.

On top of that, those numbers are not unique to this year.  According to the article those numbers have pretty much stayed consistent throughout the decades.  If a team walks 4-6 times, it is obvious that they will have a far greater chance to win.  What I find interesting is that a team that only walks once a game is going to be a loser 66% of the time.  I wonder how Dusty Baker would refute these statistical facts.  I don’t know if his earthy wisdom is going to persuade me out of this one.

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Tags: Bill James, Hits, Sabremetrics, Walks