I Love Jim Hendry Too, But What Was He Smoking This Winter? (Grading The Cubs Offseason Moves in Mid-June)
The Cubs won back-to-back divisions in 2007 and 2008. It seemed like the only thing that went wrong with the Cubs was that their hitters didn’t show up in the playoffs both times. Otherwise they were clearly the most dominant team in their division and seemed poised to win many more divisions with solid pitching and a potent lineup. That isn’t to say there were no question marks going into the offseason last fall, but there were no glaring holes that were cause for too much concern.
In general, the main areas that needed to be dealt with were: 1) With Fukudome falling apart last season, the Cubs needed to pick up a power-hitting right-fielder; 2) Jason Marquis had a big contract so he was going to have to go, but who would replace him in the rotation? 3) DeRosa’s contract was a bit large, would they pay him or look elsewhere for the versatility he provided? and 4) Wood’s contract was up, would Hendry let him walk and try to find a closer elsewhere (from within, Marmol, or from without, someone else) and how would the rest of the bullpen fill out? Let’s take a look at how Hendry addressed those issues and how those decisions have played out so far this season:
1) Fukudome’s meltdown leading to the need for a power-hitting right-fielder:
Hendry had a few options this offseason in this department. While hindsight is 20/20 and it is easy to second-guess, Hendry took an obvious risk on Milton Bradley. His attitude issues aside (I don’t think those are a big problem), the injury history was definitely a major concern. Hendry gave Bradley a 2 year $20 million contract with an option for a 3rd year at $10 million. So far Bradley has hit .242/.347/.389 (BA/OBP/SLG) with 5 home runs so far this season and spent a considerable amount of time on the bench with nagging injuries. While those numbers are not spectacular, there is still a lot of time left in the season and he has been heating up of late. Although his power hasn’t come around completely yet, he is hitting .313 in June and his OBP of .347 for the season (.371 in June) is great by most standards.
Although its a bit early to decide if signing Bradley was a terrible decision, its not to early to look at what the other options were. Adam Dunn and Raul Ibanez were both available. Dunn is hitting .265/.404/.544 with 18 home runs so far. While most people are down on Dunn for his low average and high strikeouts, its clear that he is having another monster season and the Nationals gave him essentially the same contract as Bradley got (without the 3rd year option). Ibanez is also raking the ball, hitting .312/.371/.656 with 22 home runs. Although he just landed on the DL this week with a strained groin, his production has been impressive as well. Although it was impossible for Hendry to see the future, both of these guys were significantly less injury (and attitude) risks.
Grade: C-
2) Jason Marquis Out, Open Spot in the Rotation
Marquis’ contract called for a giant option for the 2009 season, so trading him was a must. Not to say that he didn’t contribute, but he is an average pitcher and not worth the contract. With Peavy rumors swirling, Hendry decided to stand pat and trust the guns in his farm system. The assumption was that Marshall or Samardzija would win the spot in the rotation, with guys like Gaudin and the newly-acquired Heilman competing as well. Marshall won the spot and performed great for the first couple of months. When Harden went down, the Cubbies brought up Randy Wells, who has sparkled in his outings (even in the face of a severe lack of run support). Now that Harden is back, Wells is being kept in the rotation allowing Lou to use Marshall out of the pen as another lefty. None of these guys are Peavy, but Peavy is out for a while with an injury and Marshall/Wells have worked out beautifully.
Are the Cubs really pursuing Pedro Martinez? Why?
Grade: A-
3) DeRosa’s Contract was $5.5 Million, Keep Him or Look Elsewhere?
Hendry decided to trade DeRosa right around New Years Eve. Besides being a great hitting 2nd basemen, he played numerous other positions and brought invaluable versatility to the Cubs. Hendry acquired Aaron Miles to replace him, with the assumption that Fontenot would compete for the job. Both Miles and Fontenot have been inconsistent at best. Miles has been just awful, hitting .202/.240/.261. Fontenot has been better, hitting .235/.324/.390, but still far inferior to DeRosa, who has put up a line of .279/.349/.477 with 13 home runs. The hitting isn’t the only problem however, since DeRosa’s versatility would have come in very handy. While Hendry couldn’t have predicted Aramis Ramirez would go down for such a long stretch, things like that happen and DeRosa gives the team a great option in case of an injury situation like the one that happened. This move looks worse and worse everyday as the Cubs struggling offense and injury-riddled infield continue to be a problem.
Grade: D
4) Wood’s Contract was up, Re-Sign Him or Let Him Walk? And The Rest of The Bullpen?
No one wanted to see Kerry Wood go, but with a guy like Carlos Marmol in the wings, its seemed like this could work out. All Hendry needed to do was go out and get a good set-up man so that Marmol could move seamlessly into the closer role. Instead he went out and got a mediocre closer and an ok middle reliever (Gregg and Heilman). Gregg has been up and down, going through some very rough patches. Although most people have focused on how poor he’s been, the truth is he is having a pretty decent season. He has converted 10/12 save opportunites and his ERA is just shy of 4 (3.99). He has 30 strikeouts in 29.1 innings. Although he has put on a few more baserunners than any of us would like (1.43 WHIP), he hasn’t been awful. Ironically enough, the rest of the bullpen has been the real problem, starting with Marmol and ending with Neil Cotts (thank god that guy is gone). Marmol’s ERA is 3.77, yes, but he has blown 2 saves in 5 opportunities and given up massive amounts of walks–31 in just 30 innings. He has been extremely streaky, putting up a 6.00 ERA in April, 1.39 in May, and 5.63 so far in June. Heilman has a 4.50 and the rest of the bullpen is made up of AAAA-type guys or kids that aren’t quite ready for the show. The one bright spot in the pen has been Angel Guzman, who is having a great season so far and hopefully will continue to shine.
Overall the bullpen is a mess, however, and the decision to let Woody walk is at the root of the entire problem. There’s one thing missing in this analysis though: With Wood up on a pedestal, you would assume he is having a great season in Cleveland, right? Wrong. Up until May 19, his ERA was 8.31 and he was 5/8 in save opportunities. Since then however, he has turned it around, giving up no runs and converting on 3/3 saves. His ERA is still a bit high at 4.63, but he looks to be turning it around. It’s tough to blame Hendry for this one, since Marmol should be better than he is, but thinking that Kevin Gregg was the answer and not doing anything else substantial to bolster the bullpen was short-sighted at best.
Grade: C-
Overall Offseason Grade: C-
Although looking within for help in the rotation has played out well for Jim Hendry, the rest of his moves (or lack thereof) were poorly planned or just poorly executed. Milton Bradley has been a bust so far, the bullpen is a mess, and DeRosa would have plugged some serious holes in the Cubs infield. All that negativity aside, the Cubs are still .500 and battling for the division, even with all the injuries they have sustained. Hopefully they can turn things around in the second half of the season and make Hendry look like a genius again.
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