Not Qualified To Comment » Fantasy Baseball Preview

Fantasy Baseball Preview – SP

March 4, 2009 at 11:00 am | Baseball, Fantasy Baseball
By: The Bad Guy

Because of the shortage of time between now and opening day, we at NQTC decided to roll with a position by position preview as opposed to going team by team. The SP preview is up today - look for the RP preview on Friday. Again, this is not a list of the top seven guys at the position but rather seven guys I felt like writing about.

1. Johan Santana SP Mets - New York’s $137 Million dollar man gave everyone a scare this week when reports came out that the two time Cy Young award winner was scheduled for an MRI on his pitching elbow. Santana was able to throw without pain later in the day, and the worries were put to rest. Today however, there are reports that Johan is most likely not going to be ready by opening day, and will instead be scheduled to start the Mets fifth game of the season. This should not hurt his value too much, but if people are worried about him and he drops in your draft, make sure to scoop him up. Santana has never missed significant action due to an injury, and it would be shocking to see him sit out

2. Tim Lincecum SP Giants - The 24 year old flamethrower has been moving his way up draft boards in 2009 after his lights out 2008 Cy Young award winning season. Lincecum somehow managed to win 18 games on a horrible SF team, a total that will be almost impossible to reach again unless the Giants improve drastically. However, if he can manage to win 14-15 games and post similar numbers in WHIP, ERA, and Ks, he should definitely be able to justify his high draft position. I don’t normally like to pay for guys coming off career years or take pitchers within the first couple of rounds, but after owning him last season, I know that Lincecum can single handedly carry a pitching staff in fantasy baseball, and he’ll be worth every penny again this year.

3. CC Sabathia SP Yankees - Unlike with Lincecum, The Bad Guy is not high on CC at all this year, even after his unbelievable 2008 second half. In seven season with the Indians, Sabathia’s best numbers were posted in 2007 when he finished with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP – in 17 starts following his trade from Cleveland to Milwaukee, Sabathia posted a ridiculous 1.65 ERA and 1.00 WHIP – numbers that simply won’t be attainable again in 2009. Carsten Charles should be able to maintain his high strikeout rate, and after signing with the Yankees, should also be able to win anywhere from 16-20 games. He is without a doubt still a top 10 SP this season, but look for his ERA and WHIP to rise back up to around his career averages of 3.66 and 1.24.

4. Chad Billingsley SP Dodgers - After having a very solid 2008 season, Billingsley seems to be everyone’s pick to move into elite SP status in 2009. He pitches in one of the weakest divisions in baseball, and should receive solid run production from his offense – with or without Manny. The Dodger’s ace broke his leg during the off-season, but has been pitching in spring training and seems like a good bet to be ready for opening day. The one knock on Billingsley is that he walks a lot of guys (1.34 WHIP in 2008), but if he can somehow cut down on the free passes to first, he could be in line for a career year.

5. Felix Hernandez SP Mariners - It seems like he’s been around forever, but the highly touted King Felix is still only 22, and could be on the verge of a breakout season in 2009. Hernandez has yet to live up to the hype that has surrounded him ever since he was a 16 year old kid, but over the years has shown glimpses of the potential that he possesses. In 17 starts before the All Star break in 2008, Felix went 6-6 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.24 WHIP – not outstanding numbers, but pretty impressive none the less. If he can find a way to stay consistently solid throughout the entire season, he could end up being a nice surprise for those who draft him near his Yahoo! ADP of 92.

6. Carlos Zambrano SP Cubs - Big Z is definitely not the fantasy stud that he once was, and is not someone that I would be looking to land on one of my teams. As a Cubs fan, it’s hard to look the other way when it comes to Zambrano, but when you examine his numbers, they’re just not all that impressive anymore. His strikeout totals have decreased three seasons in a row – something you never want to see when in a pitcher’s stats. He should still be good for around 14-16 wins, but his ERA has been in the 3.90s the past two seasons, and there is no reason to believe that it will be significantly lower in 2009.

7. Roy Oswalt SP Astros - This one time fantasy stud doesn’t get much love in fantasy drafts anymore, as he is not a great strikeout pitcher and has gotten off to some rough starts in recent years. However, The Bad Guy is here to take a closer look at Oswalt’s numbers, and to show you that Oswalt is definitely someone to keep an eye on. If you examine his first half/second half splits in 2006, 2007, and 2008, you will see that he is a combined 25-6 (WHAT!?!) over the past three seasons after the All Star break, with a much lower ERA and WHIP to boot. If Oswalt struggles again at the beginning of 2009, see if you can steal him away from his current owner, as there is sure to be lots of 2nd half success again this year.