Since Spring Training is under way, its probably time to analyze which Cubs will make the roster and which will be sent back to the minors or released.  The Opening Day roster must be cut down to 25 players.  Some spots are pretty much sewn up, but a lot of battles still exist on the bench, in the bullpen, and for the 5th starter spot.

The regular everyday lineup for the Chicago Cubs looks to be basically set barring any serious injuries.  Here are the likely everyday positional starters on opening day:

C – Soto

1B – Lee

2B – Fontenot

3B – Ramirez

SS – Theriot

RF – Bradley

CF – Fukudome

LF – Soriano

So that’s 8 players right there.  What will the bench look like though?  Let’s examine the candidates for the 5 remaining spots on the bench:

C – Paul Bako (In) – We need a backup catcher and Bako appears to be that guy.  While Koyie Hill has more upside, Bako is more experienced behind the plate.  He’s also a lefty which makes him a virtual lock for a roster spot (though I’m not sure what his .299 OBP is going to do against righties).  I don’t love him, but at least I don’t hate him as much as this guy.

IF – Aaron Miles (In)  – Boy was this a bad signing.  It’s still too early to tell how this guy will turn out.  He could do anything from supplanting Fontenot for the 2B starting spot to being a complete flop and getting sent down (assuming his contract allows for that).  Either way he was a waste of money, since Fontenot can bat lefty and is far cheaper.  Unfortunately the Cubbies have very few other options for backup infielders, which brings us to…

IF – Luis Rivas, Corey Koskie(Bubble) – I’m going to treat this as one guy, since I don’t know the difference between the two (didn’t they both play for the Twins?) It looks like this guy may make the opening day roster with the Cubs needing another defensively versatile infielder.  Between this guy and Miles, they should have enough competent backups at 3B to spell Ramirez when he has the eventual groin pull or strained hammy.  Too bad this guy couldn’t hit a grapefruit off a tee.

OF – Reed Johnson (In) – This guy is a lock to make the team.  Even if Fukudome was not a giant question mark, Johnson proved his abilities and versatility last year and will be a valuable 4th outfielder.  His .358 OBP and .420 SLG last year make him one of the best hitting options off the bench in the entire National League.

OF – So Taguchi (Bubble) -The battle for the last outfield spot on the bench will be between Taguchi, Gathright and Hoffpauir.  I think Taguchi has the inside track because of his defensive prowess and ability to communicate with Fukudome.

IF – Micah Hoffpauir (Bubble) -It’s too bad that So might get the nod, since Hoffpauir can really rake the ball.  He can really only play 1B and RF, and he plays those poorly.  He has a chance to make the squad, and as he approaches 30 years old it might be time for the Cubs to either give this guy a shot or cut him loose.

OF – Joey Gathright (Bubble) – If So doesn’t make the opening day roster, this guy has a great chance.  He is a great defensive fielder and he can jump over cars.  Seriously.

1B – Jake Fox (Out) – Another 1B?  This guy can hit at the minor league level, but he’s way down on the depth chart even in Mesa.

OF – Sam Fuld (Out) – We’ve been hearing about him for years.  Not going to happen though, since there are too many proven OFs ahead of him.

My guess for who will make the roster is Bako, Miles, Johnson, Koskie/Rivas (one or the other, whoever can hit better in camp and play 3B I’m guessing), and Taguchi.

The Cubs will probably carry 12 pitchers.  The top of the rotation appears to be set as well:

#1 SP – Zambrano

#2 SP – Dempster

#3 SP – Lilly

#4 SP – Harden

While one could argue the actual order of these pitchers, I decided to put Harden at the #4 because of the Cubs expressed intentions to limit his starts and innings this year.  The 5th spot in the rotation is still up for grabs:

#5 SP – Sean Marshall (Bubble) – The lefty has had some flashes of greatness the last couple seasons.  He has a sub-4.00 ERA the last two seasons.  The fact that he’s a lefty and has been pretty sharp so far in Spring Training gives him the edge in this race so far.

#5 SP – Jeff Samardzija (Bubble) – He’s young and has a blazing fastball.  He hasn’t been amazing yet this spring, but it’s early.  He has just as good a shot as Marshall to make the squad, but he’ll have to pitch well this spring to win the job.

#5 SP – Chad Gaudin (Out) – He’ll be a good middle/long reliever but he won’t pass Samardzija or Marshall in this race.  Love the crazy goatee though.

#5 SP – Aaron Heilman (Out) – Why did we trade for this guy?  Seriously?  Did we need a 4th guy to compete for the 5th starter spot?

I think that Marshall will win the #5 spot in the rotation because he is a lefty, but Samardzija will make it a good race.  The three that lose this race are pretty much assured spots in the bullpen, so they will have a shot to take the spot if the starter falters even a little bit.

There are 7 spots in the bullpen and 6 of them are pretty much sewn up:

RHMR – Samardzija

RHMR – Gaudin

LHMR – Cotts

RHMR – Heilman

RHSU – Marmol

LHSU – Marshall

CL – Gregg

I know, I know, Marmol should close.  Lou may keep him in the set-up role because he’s not ready.  Personally I believe the more crucial at-bats occur in the 6th, 7th and 8th a lot of the time so I’m fine with using him in the set-up role.  Also, one of the guys between Marshall, Samardzija, Gaudin and Heilman will be starting, leaving one spot left for the bullpen.  There are basically 3 guys competing for that last spot.

RHMR – Luis Vizcaino – He was with the White Sox during their 2005 World Series run.  This will also be his 6th team in as many years.  He had a rough year last year and at his age, 35, it probably wasn’t a fluke.  Still if he can pitch well this spring he has a good chance to take the last spot.

RHMR – Angel Guzman – Remember when this guy was the ace of the future?  Now he is not even worth mentioning in the race for the starting spot.  That being said he could earn a spot in the bullpen with a good spring.

RHMR – Kevin Hart – Still full of potential, but not so young anymore, Hart may be the guy to round out the Cubs bullpen.

I think Vizcaino will be the one who wins this battle, but with this last spot in the bullpen guys get shuttled back and forth from Iowa all year so don’t think it’s the last you’ve heard from any of them in 2009.

So thats the situation for the Cubs this March.  While there are no positional battles at crucial spots outside the 5th starter, our bench and the tail end of the bullpen can be very important during the course of the season.  Hopefully some of the garbage Hendry acquired (Miles, Gathright, Koskie, Heilman, Vizcaino, Taguchi, Rivas) will pan out.

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Tags: Position Battles, Spring Training