Fantasy Baseball Preview – OF

February 27, 2009 at 11:00 am | Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Uncategorized
By: The Bad Guy

Because of the shortage of time between now and opening day, we at NQTC decided to roll with a position by position preview as opposed to going team by team. OF preview is up today -  look for the SP  preview on Wednesday. Again, this is not a list of the top seven guys at the position but rather seven guys I felt like writing about.


84254597RM008_CLEVELAND_IND1. Grady Sizemore OF Indians - If you look up stud in the dictionary, you should find a picture of the 26 year-old all star. Grady is the definition of a five tool player, he simply does it all. His low average (.268 in 2008) holds him back from being absolutely unreal, and is the only reason why he is considered a second tier first round pick. If he can somehow manage to get his average back up to around  .290 like he did back in 2006, then there would be no other player in baseball that I would rather have on my team then #24. ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian is quoted as saying that he believes Sizemore could hit 45 HR and steal 45 bases in 2009. Even though those projections have been made by someone at ESPN (ESPN has some of the worst projections/draft kit material that I have ever seen) and are most likely not going to hit, they still show how much ridiculous potential Mr. Sizemore possesses.

braun_clicks

2. Ryan Braun OF Brewers – Like Grady, Braun could be absolutely ridiculous in 2009. It would not be surprising at all to see the Milwaukee OF put up a stat line that looked something like 100 R, 40 HR, 100 RBI, 15 SB, and a .300+ average. With the OF position being somewhat shallow this season, Braun makes for a great pick anywhere from 6-9 in the first round -  anything after that should be considered a steal. There are only a handful of guys that have the potential to hit 40 HRs and steal 15+ or so bases, which is one of the reasons that Braun is so valuable and gets drafted so high. If you have the chance to grab the 25 year old phenom, don’t let him get away.

84254606DM_Cubs_Photo_Day3. Alfonso Soriano OF Cubs - This one time member of the 40-40 club has come out and said that he hopes to steal 30 bases this season IF he can stay healthy. Soriano has missed 80 games combined over the past two seasons, almost half of which have stemmed from leg/calf muscle issues which have ultimately limited his ability to steal bases (He did miss 34 games with a broken hand in 2008 after getting hit by a pitch). Soriano seems to be 100% healthy entering spring training this year, meaning that a huge season might be around the corner IF (there’s that word again) he can manage to avoid injury. At 33 though, age is definitely not on Soriano’s side, but if you can get 140 games or so out of the seven time all star, he should still be able to put up real solid numbers across the board.

kemp

4. Matt Kemp OF Dodgers - Kemp is someone that I have had my eye on ever since he  was called up from AAA in 2006. After putting up a line of 93 R, 18 HR, 76 RBI, 35 SB, and a .290 average in2008, everyone seems to have their eye on him now. His average draft position is just about 40 on Mockdraftcentral.com and about 46 on Yahoo!, meaning he is getting drafted in the beginning to middle of the fourth round in 12 team leagues, which seems a little late considering how good he could be in 2009. The potential for a 30/30 season is definitely there, although realistically he still might be a couple years away from reaching 30 HR. Kemp has yet to solidify himself in any one slot in the Dodgers lineup as he had more then 130 AB hitting first, second, and sixth, but no matter where he is hitting, he should still be a reliable source in all five  standard categories.

craaaaaw5. Carl Crawford OF Rays – People seem to have totally written off the former first round fantasy lock, as his ADP on Yahoo! is almost 34 – more or less the end of the third round in 12 team leagues. He could turn out to be the steal of your draft with an ADP like that, as there is no reason to think that he won’t reach the 50 SB plateau that he attained in both 2006 and 2007. Experts used to project Craw to hit for power year after year, and it seemed like they were finally right when he hit 18 HR in 2006, but he went on to only hit 18 HR combined over the next two seasons (252 games). At the age of 27 though, The Tampa Bay OF is finally in his prime power years, and if he can somehow manage to get to that 15-18 level again, he could again be one of the top fantasy studs in 2009.

bruce

6. Jay Bruce OF Reds – Bruuuuuuuce is the talk of the fantasy town, as he has just about as much potential as any of the other guys listed above him. Cinci’s top prospect was called up in late May of 2008 and simply started killing the ball – he was hitting .382 with 15 R, 4 HR, 12 RBI, and 2 SB through his first 18 games – just ridiculous numbers. Soon after though, pitchers started catching on to him, and he struggled through the rest of his rookie campaign. Besides crushing 15 homers over the last two months of the season, Bruce didn’t do very much at all, and most likely could have been found on waivers towards the end of the year. Expectations for Bruce vary in 2009, as some seem to think that the 21 year old is ready to be an All Star, while others are concerned that at such a young age, he won’t be able to make enough of an adjustment to major league pitching – The Bad Guy says he  winds up somewhere in the middle.

Red Sox Bay Baseball7. Jason Bay OF Red Sox - If you take Jason Bay’s numbers from the time he was traded to Boston and span them out over 162 games, you’re looking at MVP type stats – he would have put up a line of 128 R, 30 HR, 122 RBI, and 10 SB, all while hitting .290+. With a full season ahead of him playing at Fenway in that potent Red Sox lineup, it would not be surprising to see him put produce those kind of numbers again. If you can steal him somewhere around his Yahoo! ADP of 35, you could be looking at the bargain of your draft.


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Comments

Comment from StevieY19
Time February 27, 2009 at 4:53 pm

My projected OF: Tim Raines, Otis Nixon, Jay Buhner.

Comment from Ace
Time February 28, 2009 at 12:53 pm

I’ll admit, I don’t know much about what makes a guy a good fantasy player versus a good actual player, but I don’t plan on holding too high of hopes for Alfonso Soriano’s stolen base production this year. Or ever again, really.

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